PGA DFS Picks: Against the Grain for the Northern Trust

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers PGA DFS picks for the Northern Trust. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel and DraftKings. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

PGA DFS Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week

PGA DFS picks millionaire maker

Picks Review

Top-end pick: Fade Koepka was right.
Value: Si Woo Kim was excellent.
Mid-level pick: Seamus Power was one positive name.

Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for The Northern Trust

PGA DFS picks projected ownership

For the full list, click here.

Player Focus This Week

This week features 125 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut.

$10,000 and Above

Six Golfers
Total ownership of around 75%

Commentary

Pricing will dictate ownership this week as these five or six golfers are hard to cap each week. Jon Rahm, the No. 1 golfer in the world, is likely to have the highest ownership here, as his price is significantly lower than it has been in the last month, and the cheapest out of all six now. Dustin Johnson has been a total rollercoaster, shooting three rounds in the 80s, and a win and second-place finish and is likely to come in as the lowest owned because of all that. Justin Thomas being the highest-priced golfer will also keep ownership a little tempered on him, as well on Collin Morikawa, who gamers just don’t want to roster above $10K, or not at least nearly as much as when he’s in the mid $8Ks!

I’ve only left out Rory and Bryson, who I expect both to come in around 15% this week.

Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays

Total ownership of only 75% for the six golfers is quite low. In fact, it’s the lowest-projected ownership from this pricing section since our return to professional golf. That should give us almost all the golfers here as an against the grain play. I think Bryson and Justin are set up best to win, and in GPPs, I’ll have either one of them in at least 80% of the lineups.

$8,000-$9,999

18 Golfers
Total ownership of 230%

PGA DFS ownership

Commentary

After a brief two-week stint where the $7K section seemed all but stronger than the $8ks, DK has gone back to overloading the $8K section. That should help create even more leverage spots up top, with a ton of focus going here. That focus will be led by Ryder Cup partners Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, both expected to be around 20% this week. Webb Simpson’s continued form will also get him north of 15%, as will Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama and Agam Scott. Then a bit of an ownership drop off as you go to Tony Finau, whose price is up $1K since the PGA Championship, in virtually the same field. That will lead to lower ownership, somewhere in the 10-15% range. The same goes for Jason Day, whose price is now above $9K after his good run of form. The next batch of golfers should be in the 10-15 % range:

Tiger Woods
Daniel Berger
Tyrell Hatton
Scottie Scheffler
Paul Casey
Tommy Fleetwood

That leaves us with only four golfers that are expected under, or at 10% owned this week, and they are:

Viktor Hovland
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Brooks Koepka
Justin Rose

Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays

While we haven’t seen Tiger at his best yet since the restart, it’s really been his putter that has been icy cold. His ball-striking has looked ok, especially his irons. We know a win or top 5 this week is bound to give us premium ownership at the U.S. Open in a few weeks, so I’m going to try and leverage this spot here. Pair him up with one of those last four, and it should provide a good bit of uniqueness this week.

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$7,000s

34 Golfers
Total ownership of 193%

PGA DFS

Commentary

Even with the more robust $8K section this week, there’s still plenty of ownership being attributed to the 30+ golfers with Abraham Ancer leading the way close to 15-20%. Sungaje Im off his best start since the restart comes in at around 12%. As does Gary Woodland, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel and Matthew Wolff. That should, however, end the golfers that will be owned over 10% in this price section. A bunch of players remain that will be owned within 5-10:

Cameron Champ
Doc Redman
Kevin Kisner
Si Woo Kim
Jordan Spieth
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Kuchar

That leaves us with 19 golfers that are all expected to be at or under 5%. A couple of names I am interested in include

Joaquin Niemann
Dylan Frittelli
Emiliano Grillo
Alex Noren
Harold Varner III

Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays

That first list is definitely appealing. The first four on it seem like they are in great form and should present nice value if you add one or two of them into your lineups.

$6,000s

67 golfers
Total ownership of 100%

Commentary

Similar to last week with Wesley Bryan, Lucas Glover is now at a reasonable price, and form doesn’t seem all that far off. Sam Burns and Kevin Na also present really solid GPP upside at their value, and Scott Stallings still hasn’t missed a cut in this restart. Henrik Norlander and Richy Werenski have both enjoyed a strong return to golf, as all six of these golfers will be owned near or over 5% this week. Plenty of others that should get some decent ownership are Brian Harman, Mark Hubbard and Lanto Griffin.

For a little bit more talk on this subject, check out my “Against the Grain” Podcast on your favorite podcast provider!