Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for game theory plays and may not ultimately be in my player pool.
Don’t forget to check out the PGA DFS Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa. Come back tonight at 8:30 p.m. EST for our Live Before Lock show where I drag Ben in for another hour of chatting about all the current week’s hot topics and plays.Â
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Last Week Recap
The guys behind the curtain here at Awesemo dominated again, scoring a 92%. I was 86%. I mentioned Ryan Moore as a top play in the $8,000 section and he was the highlight of the article’s recommendations.
PGA DFS Player focus this week:
This is a semi-normal week with over 140 players and a cut after 36 holes, but they use two courses with the North Course being significantly easier than the South. With such a big field and much crowding going on up top, it should present plenty of Against the Grain Plays for this week.
$10,000 and Above
Commentary
Five of the world’s top 10 are here this week, and each of them got the $10,000-plus price tag. Rory McIlroy should be the highest-owned golfer. Comparing his and Jon Rahm’s ownership and similar prices, it seems McIlroy has the edge by about 5%. I suspect that the gap of nine, shown above, to lesson by lock time tomorrow. Justin Rose’s contingent will be tested a bit this week. A $10,300 price tag is no bargain. He should still get about 15% this week. Speaking of contingent being tested, Tiger Woods is the most expensive we’ve seen him in a very long time, and with that will come low-to-mid-teens ownership.
Lastly, Xander Schauffele is above $10,000 again, which seems to be standard for him these days. He has yet to eclipse 18% even in a field that only had 32 golfers in the last 15 starts. In fact, he only eclipsed the 20% mark twice all year last year, and the last time was at The Players about 10 months ago. He doesn’t have great course history here either, so expect gamers to pay up or down and continue these trends.
Top PGA DFS Against the Grain Plays
Schauffele doesn’t have great course history, as I just mentioned, even though it’s basically a home game. I don’t think the 10% I have projected is that far off, and I think you can get double the field and not be crushed if he misses the cut. It would be the third time he’d do that in four tries.
$8,000-$9,999
Commentary
It is no real suprirse to see Collin Morikawa leading the way, as price and fit seem to be there. He was owned 20% at the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago and was $600 more expensive. Add in the field strength of this week, and the salary reduction, and it’s likely we see the same ownership. Tony Finau and Gary Woodland aren’t too far behind, coming in near 20% as well. Sungaje Im and Rickie Fowler can’t be far behind either and should be owned in the high teens. After them though, it isn’t as easy to predict, other than Jordan Spieth, coming in at less than 5%. All of the following guys should be owned in the mid-teens:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Joaquin NiemannÂ
- Scottie Scheffler
- Marc Leishman
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Reed
That leaves a couple of plays other than Spieth that are trending towards less than 10% ownership and they include:
- Cameron Smith
- Jason Day
- Billy Horschel
- Brandt Snedeker
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Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
Brandt Snedeker and Cam Smith are appealing. I won’t go more than double or triple with either.
$7,000s
PGA DFS Commentary:
Byeong Hun An truthers will be out this week. He opened up his round with six birdies in the first seven holes, before making a snowman and dropping all the way back to -2. That was the last time he saw anything close to the cut line. He gets a massive price reduction this week and sits in the value section now. Harris English was highly owned last week and is likely to be a target in the value section again this time. Then there’s a handful of golfers, five or so, that will be owned in the low-to-mid-teens. They are:
- Russell Knox
- Jason Kokrak
- Sebastian Munoz
- Denny McCarthy
- Sebastion Munoz
- Lanto Griffin
20 golfers remain, all of them coming in under 10%, or right there around. A couple that I am interested in are:
- Bud Cauley
- Cameron Champ
- Talor Gooch
- Sam Burns
Also, if you want to go against the grain, there are at least five other golfers that will be owned below 5%, and they include:
- Cameron Davis
- Bubba Watson
- Nick Watney
- Sam Ryder
- Phil Mickelson
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
I’ll roll with two of the golfers from the middle list in most of my GPP lineups.
$6,000s
Carlos Ortiz’s rally last week, where he was mildly owned, is likely to earn him the same respect this week. Doc Redman has been getting a bit of chatter and seems cheap, while Max Homa, Sung Kang, Kyle Stanley, Maverick McNealy and Harry Higgs could all get close to 5% owned this week, especially in the limited entry contests.
Until next time
Cheers,
Jason
