One week is in the books for PGA One-and-Done pools, and hopefully you got off to a good start. If not, don’t worry, there is plenty of time to make up ground. That’s where this format is nicer than NFL Survivor pools where one mistake ends your season. The Sony Open finished with Kevin Na taking down the trophy and over $1 million for anyone that selected him in one-and-Done. Fortunately, he was incredibly low-owned, with only a handful of players choosing him in large-field one-and-done pools, so the field is pretty jammed packed after Week 1. This week, we’re going to be breaking down PGA one-and-done picks for the American Express, which you can also use in your PGA betting picks as well.
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What is a One-and-Done pool?
A one-and-one pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.
Sony Open Recap
Webb Simpson
If you decided to burn Webb Simpson early, it looked like you might be in for a massive payday right off the bat. Simpson ended up finishing fourth, which earned him $277,000 and a decent score for your selection. The one downside is that now you do not have Simpson available for some future tournaments where he easily could be among the favorites. Most people chose to wait on Simpson and will hope that when they deploy him he can possibly outscore the $277,000 payday he earned last week.
Daniel Berger
Berger was my pick, and he finished 10th for $200,000. That is a nice chunk of change for the one-and-done squad. Obviously you always want to shoot for the big score, but with Na winning, there were not many people who were able to grab the seven-figure payday, which makes Berger’s result easier to handle.
Sungjae Im
One of the most popular choice for the Sony Open didn’t get the job done, as Sungjae Im made the weekend but did not compete. His 56th-place finish earned him just $15,000 which is big gap between him and the other top-end options. It was not the start we were looking for, but Im did put some money on the board, and he isn’t a major loss if you used him early.
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American Express One-and-Done Picks
Patrick Cantlay
Now that Jon Rahm has withdrawn, the top end of this event is pretty balanced in terms of who is the favorite at the American Express. One of the guys in the conversation has to be Patrick Cantlay, who is extremely reliable and a guy who shows up pretty much time he tees it up. He is the betting favorite, hasn’t missed a cut since August and has won a tournament in both 2019 and 2020. The question is, do we wait on a guy like Cantlay, or do we want to use him this early in the season? That is the only concern, as he checks all the boxes and should return a sizeable chunk of change this week.
Matthew Wolff
If you aren’t super sold on Matthew Wolff making noise in majors or other top-tier events, then burning him early is the way to go. He has shown the ability to destroy easy courses, and this could fall right into that mold this week. He is a guy who loves to take apart par 5’s, so these two courses are exactly what we want when targeting him. It is just a question of whether or not you want to target a guy who hasn’t played the last few weeks.
Under the Radar
Cameron Champ
We are just getting one-and-done season started, so regardless of how the Sony Open went, there is no need to panic. However, if you are looking to get away from the masses and change it up, you may opt for a more aggressive approach with a guy like Cameron Champ. I wouldn’t expect many people to go here, as there is some unnecessary risk targeting a guy like this who maybe wouldn’t even need to be selected during the entire season. However, there is no doubting Champ’s upside, and considering his driving skills, he could have a million wedge opportunities into these holes. The problem is the downside with him is much greater, so you have to weigh the risk against the reward when deciding how aggressive to be. I don’t hate the idea of going to Champ at an easy layout like these courses, but I still prefer the safer options this week.
My PGA One-and-Done Pick: Patrick Cantlay
I am sticking to my plan of being very conservative to begin One-and-Done season. Last week I went with Berger, who was popular, and this week Cantlay should be among the highest-owned players. Long term that is going to need to change, but there will be better spots to mix it up than this in my opinion. Cantlay is the type of player that I’m not sure I want to target at majors, and this is as good of spot as any if I am not worried about saving him for a future event. He is extremely reliable, and even landing another top-10 should keep me within striking distance after two weeks, especially if another low-owned players takes down the tournament.
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