The Winning Element: American Express PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Ownership Percentages

Weather

It’s Palm Springs and the desert; there aren’t ever any weather problems out here, and there aren’t any expected again for the next four days.

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Fantasy Golf Favorites Summary for the American Express

Patrick Cantlay is the top-priced option this week with relatively high ownership, so that’ll be a little tough for me to get that much leverage. I’ll still play him as a core position, though. Both Brian Harman and Brian Stuard are also in play this week, with Harman getting plenty of allocation and Stuard a little less so. I’ll keep playing a bit of Will Gordon, but not as much this week.

PGA DFS Picks for the American Express

Total Player Pool: 69

Week-Long DFS Contests

DraftKings

• One $555 Signature hole
• 200 GPP lines

FanDuel

• Three $333
• 150 GPP lineups

Core Golfers

Matthew Wolff ($9,700 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel)

If you’ve been following along this week, you know by now I’m pretty keen on the 21-year-old. Even with his most recent interview (published here) where he talks about how he played too much golf last year and could be a bit rusty right now, it isn’t quite enough for me to come off of him. I mean, Xander Schauffele said the same thing before he finishing in the top five out at Kapalua after getting COVID. So I’m not trying to buy into the spoken words in this exact moment. With projected ownership around 7%, it shouldn’t take much more than 25% to get upside leverage on the field.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,500 DraftKings/$11,300FanDuel)

While he’s cheaper on DraftKings than Wolff, yet shorter in the odds to win market, Scheffler will carry a heavy ownership load this week. It’s tough to fade him given that this course does seem to set up quite well for him. His week out on Maui was so so, but that’s rather typical for a first-timer at the event. His ball striking was the problem, so that’s the concern for me a bit, but I still think I’d rather take the $7,000 savings with a little less ownership and eat the Scheffler chalk rather than the Patrick Reed chalk.

Abraham Ancer ($9,100 DraftKings/$1o,900 FanDuel)

Losing over four strokes in two days with his short game last week, Ancer could have been right there had he matched the field. But it wasn’t to be as the putter and around-the-green game were icy cold. Maybe this week, with smaller targets and easier green complexes, Ancer’s short-game will turn. If they do, he’s live to win.

Sam Burns ($8,300 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel)

His third time around the PGA Tour season, Burns seems to finally be finding the type of upper-end form we thought he had when he came out of college. The American Express has provided two decent paychecks, including a sixth place last year. He hasn’t played yet this year, and the last time we saw him he came in seventh almost 11 weeks ago, so there may be a bit of rust.

Cameron Davis ($7,700 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel)

Leading the field last week in strokes gained off the tee, Davis took an aggressive route everywhere he could. He should be able to do that again this week at both courses. Given his other stats, I don’t think a top-five is possible, and I think a top-10 might be stretching it, but his consistency and scoring ability (birdie or better rate) is always fruitful for DFS purposes.

Doc Redman ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) 

Since joining the tour, this young, talented golfer has been remarkably consistent given his path to the tour and his age. While he hasn’t won yet, he has only missed back-to-back cuts one time. His average finish after a missed cut is right around 20th, including the last two times, where he came in a tie for third and a tie for fourth.

Brendan Steele ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

One of only a few golfers to gain in every facet of his game last week, Steele had a chance to win at the Sony for the second straight year. This year, though, I don’t think he lost it, not in my opinion at least. Na just played better on the back nine and got a tad luckier. I’m OK buying again at these levels.

Gambles of the week ($7,000 and Below)

Nick Taylor ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)

After blistering out to the 36-hole lead, Taylor couldn’t keep pace as his approach game failed him over the weekend, losing a stroke. But his off-tee game remained good, and his putter also remained hot. If those continue into this week, then I see Taylor breezing through to the weekend and aiming for another top-20.

Max Homa ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) & Michael Thompson ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)

After his best finish of the year, a third at the 3M Open, Homa went on to miss three of the next four cuts. But since that bad stretch, it has gotten a lot better, making three of his next four, including the 12th-place finish at Mayakoba a month ago. Like we saw with Michael Thompson last week, accomplished players can provide great return if you guess correctly. That’s the fun of this game. I’ll try and guess correctly on Homa here this week.

For Thompson, it’s been a solid start to the season with back to back top 25s. Granted there were only 42 players in the field out on Maui, but he still was able to put up a ton of DFS points. If I have the $100 on FanDuel I’d take Thompson over Homa, if not I’m fine having Homa in that spot as well.

Camilo Villegas ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) 

Making the most of his situation, Villegas has been able to make four of his seven cuts and has just about seven starts left on his exemption. He is well on his way to gaining status back on the tour, having finished sixth at the RSM Classic. Villegas will need a couple of more of those to earn his card back. We just saw Chris Kirk do something similar last week, and we know that Villegas has popped form recently, especially with his irons. That should bode well for him here this week.

Akshay Bhatia ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)

That FanDuel price is so tempting, especially since we know Bhatia can do it. If he hadn’t made a cut or come in the top 10, I’d probably rather head to Joohyung Kim, especially on DraftKings. I will still do for the spots that I need a player this cheap.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone: Listed by Salary

Key

O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight

1. Patrick Reed (E to U)
2. Tony Finau (E to U)
3. Sungjae Im (E)
4. Kevin Na (U)
5. Russell Henley (E to U)
6. Patton Kizzire (E to U)
7. Joel Dahmen (E)
8. John Huh (E to U)

PGA DFS Fringe Players

* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 15-20% in GPPs. 

1. Cameron Champ
2. Adam Long
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Emiliano Grillo
5. Charles Howell III
6. Aaron Wise
7. Peter Malnati
8. Sepp Straka

PGA DFS Alternates (10-15% GPPs)

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Paul Casey
3. Lanto Griffin
4. Adam Hadwin
5. Erik van Rooyen
6. Gary Woodland
7. Tom Hoge
8. Chez Reavie
9. Kevin Streelman
10. Wyndham Clark
11. Matt Jones
12. Denny McCarthy
13. Kramer Hickok
14. Doug Ghim
15. Akshay Bhatia
16. Brian Stuard
17. Kristoffer Ventura
18. Mark Hubbard
19. Austin Cook
20. Maverick McNealy

PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)

1. Ryan Moore
2. Erik van Rooyen
3. Alex Noren
4. Talor Gooch
5. Keegan Bradley
6. J.T. Poston
7. Richy Werenski
8. Scott Stallings
9. Harry Hall
10. John Augenstein
11. Luke List
12. Aaron Baddeley
13. Robby Shelton
14. Sebastian Cappelen
15. Ryan Armour
16. Joohyung Kim

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