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PGA

⛳ The Winning Element: Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Ownership Percentages

Jason Rouslin

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Jason Rouslin's best PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational with Bryson DeChambeau

All of my PGA DFS picks and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and now it’s FREE!

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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.

Article Index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
  • PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau. 
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

WGC Workday was my strongest showing of the year, as I got four of the top 10 in my top eight plays. But sadly, it was not the big score that I would have expected given my player pool. The big problem was Sungjae Im over Scottie Scheffler in the $555, where I finished eighth. It was my main lineup, and had I entered the +1 to all contests. It could have been a massive week. I am the king of hindsight, but I would’ve come in second had it not been for that choice. Florida typically yields great results for me, so I look forward to another few weeks here in my home state.


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Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Picks

Viewing (Sweat) Schedule

Featured Groups is back at it this week, as PGA Tour Live will feature the following groups over the first two days:

  • Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose
  • Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari
  • Max Homa, Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel
  • Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day

TV Schedule

  • Thursday-Friday, 1-6 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday, 12-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday, 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)
  • Sunday, 12-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday, 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)

Weather

A bad storm and a cold front rolled in this week, so there may be rough conditions.

Fantasy Golf Favorites for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Jordan Spieth’s first trip around Bay Hill will be an adventure. Coming in around 9% owned, I’ll probably look to get 3.5x to 4x in GPPs and roll him out in the high-dollar lineups. Also, I’m throwing Bryson DeChambeau back up here this week. Since he is paired with Spieth the first couple of rounds, I’ll stack them quite a bit. Will Gordon is also here.

PGA DFS Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Total Player Pool: 62

Week-Long DFS Contests

DraftKings

  • 2 $555 Signature hole
  • 2 $200 Driver
  • 300+ GPP lineups

FanDuel

  • 2 $333
  • 50 GPP lineups

Core Golfers (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price)

Rory McIlroy ($11,500/$12,200) and Viktor Hovland ($10,600/$11,900)

Sure, it’s pretty easy to put the three top-priced golfers in your core and recommend it to people, but that’s what I’m doing this week. Given that I think each lineup will have at least two golfers priced at $9,000 or above, that means I can allocate 200% ownership among my plays up here. That gives me plenty of room to add in McIlroy, Hovland and Hatton at a solid ownership percentage while still getting a healthy amount of Im and Tommy Fleetwood.

Tyrell Hatton ($10,000/$11,500)

The antics were out last week again, and don’t take that word as a negative connotation. I much enjoy it, as do most others. It was seen on the 17th hole on Sunday, when Hatton took his putter, used it as if it were a gun and shot down all the surroundings of the course. I am not entirely sure what he was mad at, but nonetheless, I enjoyed watching it. This course is well suited for Hatton, who typically doesn’t spray the ball off the tee and has a great short game and a trending approach game as well.

Sungjae Im ($9,700/$11,300)

I really don’t want to miss Im’s breakthrough start since I’ve been playing him and not getting what I want. Luckily this isn’t a Doc Redman situation where he is constantly missing the cut. He is just not giving me the top-end upside that I think is there. So I’ll give it a go for at least one more week and hopefully get the start of a good stretch of golf for Im.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000/$10,200)

I could be early on this trade, and that’s fine. I am OK being early on Fleetwood. In my aggressive GPP builds, I love pairing him up with Spieth and one of the top three studs.

Francesco Molinari ($8,700/$10,300)

I have fond memories of Molinari’s win two years ago, one of the most profitable weeks of my career. I can’t let him beat me this year on that because the field is heavy on him.

Will Zalatoris ($8,600/$10,000)

I’m using Zalatoris on FanDuel again, just like I did last week. It is easier for my type of builds over there to get him in.

Sam Burns ($8,400/$9,900)

Burns not being able to win a golf tournament would certainly frustrate bettors that don’t have each way on him, but for DFS purposes, he’s been more than fine. This tournament gave him one of his first ever starts on the Tour where he made the cut, and then he returned here the following year and made the cut again. This is one of the few courses that he’s seen three times on the PGA Tour, which should only help him feel more comfortable as the bad conditions roll in over the weekend.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout/Ian Poulter/Brendon Todd

All of these golfers are making my lineups this week for the exact same reasons: They all seem to be in decent form, all have good starts here in recent years and all possess fantastic short games, which they will need when the conditions worsen. They all provide nice salary flexibility as well, and while I think Poulter’s top-10 upside is a bit more limited than the other two, I think the level of safety he provides might be all you need to get to the top of GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Luke List ($7,200/$9,000)

The missed cut a few weeks ago won’t scare me off of List given his history here and form before that start. A little break and reset may be good for him, and his price still presents value if he makes it through to the weekend.

Gambles of the week: (Under $7,000 in a Big-Dollar Lineup)

There are plenty of options down here to choose from. I’m going to start with a bit of a conservative play and get more aggressive down the board.

  1. Zach Johnson $6,900/$8,300: Johnson hasn’t missed a cut in nine starts and hasn’t missed one here in seven years. Those are all reasons why I want a guy like him who can control his ball in the wind. Now we just need to get him there.
  2. Erik van Rooyen $6,900/$8,200: Van Rooyen is a GPP target only; use Johnson over him in cash. If he makes the cut, he gives you value almost every single time.
  3. Dylan Frittelli $6,700/$8,000: Frittelli really improved his off-tee game, and given his success here last year, I’ll take a gamble on a guy that I know has top-10 upside for this price.
  4. Cameron Champ $6,600/$8,300: It has been a miserable year for Champ, having a couple of bad breaks on the West Coast during his tournament and then getting snowed in living in Houston. Finally, he has his feet underneath him, traveling in Florida the last few weeks. I think this a spot where he can break out of this slump. I’m ready to give this another shot on DraftKings and FanDuel. But like I said with Redman, this is it. If it’s another early trunk slam, I’m done playing him until he comes in the top 20 again.
  5. Adam Long $6,400/$7,500: While the run of missed cuts is a bit worrisome, Long had been close in a couple of rounds but just could not find the weekend. That will change here this week; he has had two good starts here in the last two years, coming in 24th and 10th.
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Chalk Zone Key

This is how I’m allocating my shares to the expected chalk of the week. For this article, anyone projected over 10% for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational will be considered chalk. In order by salary:

O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight

  1. Patrick Reed (E to U)
  2. Paul Casey (U)
  3. Billy Horschel (U)
  4. Louis Oosthuizen (E)
  5. Marc Leishman (E to U)
  6. Jason Kokrak (U)

PGA DFS Fringe Players for DraftKings & FanDuel

* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 10-20% in GPPs

  1. Kevin Kisner
  2. Justin Rose
  3. Lanto Griffin
  4. Sebastian Munoz

PGA DFS Alternates (5-15% GPPs)

  1. Matthew Fitzpatrick
  2. Hideki Matsuyama
  3. Jason Day
  4. Max Homa
  5. Harris English
  6. Talor Gooch
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Cameron Davis
  9. Cameron Tringale
  10. Emiliano Grillo
  11. Matt Jones
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Andrew Putnam
  14. Robert MacIntyre
  15. Henrik Norlander
  16. Henrik Stenson
  17. Matthew NeSmith
  18. Aaron Wise
  19. Doug Ghim
  20. Tom Hoge
  21. Peter Malnati
  22. Richy Werenski

PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Branden Grace
  3. Si Woo Kim
  4. Matt Wallace
  5. Sung Kang
  6. Charl Schwartzel
  7. Brandt Snedeker
  8. K.H. Lee
  9. C.T. Pan
  10. Mark Hubbard
  11. Brian Gay

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Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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