After a week of material covering all the stats and projections for PGA DFS picks, we have come to an end with the Winning Element. This is the culmination of all of the research and data from the other articles, videos and Awesemo’s industry-leading daily fantasy golf projections. Let’s break down the golfers that will make my DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Classic.
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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
While having the winner as part of the core will always mean at least a breakeven week when factoring in the betting side (I typically cover my DraftKings entries on the “to win” side), it wasn’t a great pure DFS week for me. I could not get Sam Burns in a big-dollar lineup with three other guys that made the cut, let alone five, and I couldn’t put Keegan Bradley and Burns together. I invested about $2,500 into the week and walked away with just over half of that back. That is tough when No. 1 and No. 2 on the board were part of my core.
Weather looks good for the next two days at least, with the wind expected to pick up on Saturday.
Byron Nelson Favorites
It is now clear why Jordan Spieth wasn’t playing golf the last few weeks: He caught COVID sometime just after The Masters. Now, Spieth not getting vaccinated is rather disappointing; he said that he feels great and strong with no ramifications because of it. It is to be seen if that holds true this week. Spieth is the only one of the main favorites teeing it up this week, and I will be slightly above the field.
AT&T Byron Nelson Championship PGA DFS Picks
- Total player pool: 59
- Expected number of lineups created: 300
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200 DraftKings/$12,300 FanDuel)
Private jets and Instagram stories sadly won’t be a focal point this week, or maybe DeChambeau will surprise and provide high-quality content yet again. Also, if all narratives end up playing out this week, DeChambeau should be in the best position. He has won in back-to-back starts before, and if each of the next two weeks are going to favor golfers that can hit it over 400 yards, he’s the top of the top.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,400 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)
Viktor Hovland last week was an obvious chalk play, and it panned out perfectly. I am betting the same for Scheffler this week — after all, chalk is typically chalk for a reason. His off-tee game has been on the verge of great this year, and he just needs the other parts to click at the right time. This should be a great spot for it to happen.
Aaron Wise ($8,300 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel)
There is no need to fade a golfer that clearly is figuring it out. There is also enough anecdotal evidence to say that the course this week should be a rather good fit for Wise given that the landscape isn’t supposed to be all that different from Trinity Forest, where his one PGA Tour win came.
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Cameron Champ ($8,000 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel)
In baseball the goal is to find five-tools players, and in golf the ideal is a four-tool golfer. Champ has one of the best off-tee games in the world, his irons are starting to look much crisper, and the around-the-green game finally broke. Now, if he could get the putter to wake up one week, he could finally break back into the top 15 and could have top-10 DFS potential.
Talor Gooch ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel)
It has quietly been a breakout season for Gooch that includes just one missed cut since February and three top-fives. He has been getting it done in the most important areas for fantasy success as well, and he is capitalizing on good putting weeks. I will not have all that much in GPPs because his ceiling for this event might be a bit capped, but he is a part of my main lineup as a golfer that should get inside the top 25 this week.
Carlos Ortiz ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel)
Ortiz was in the top five through 53 holes last week and had a chance to win on Sunday. But after a double on 18 and a 79 on Sunday, he was outside of the top 60. However, I will turn a blind eye and hope to buy back in before everyone else wants to.
Brandt Snedeker ($7,400 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)
Snedeker is a solid tour veteran that looks to be coming back into form. He had been struggling mightily through the beginning of this season after returning from the COVID break. However, he has made all four cuts the four weeks and has come inside the top 11 three times. There is no need to deny form, and the only narrative Snedeker does not fit is the bomber one. The contrary argument is that Snedeker is one of those guys that excels at bomber courses despite not being one himself — see Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)
While the top-end recent form like Snedeker isn’t there, Vegas has been playing much better this season, making seven of his last eight cuts. His best finish was back in March at the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished second. Consistency is key for main lineups, and I am going to buy into Vegas’ steadiness this week.
Gambles Below $6,900
- Sung Kang
Chalk Zone (Golfers Projected For At Least 10% Ownership)
- Jon Rahm (E to U)
- Daniel Berger (U)
- Will Zalatoris (E to U)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (U)
- Sam Burns (E to O)
- Ryan Palmer (E)
- Si Woo Kim (U)
- Matt Kuchar (U)
- Charl Schwartzel (E to U)
- Charles Howell III (E)
- Scott Piercy (U)
Fringe (10-15% of Lineups)
- Brooks Koepka
- Marc Leishman
- Sergio Garcia
- Thomas Pieters
- Luke List
- Keith Mitchell
- Erik van Rooyen
- Patton Kizzire
- Sepp Straka
- Wyndham Clark
Alternates (5-10% of Lineups)
- Vincent Whaley
- Harry Higgs
- Will Gordon
Holes In One (1% of Lineups)
- Troy Merritt
- Kramer Hickok
- Brian Stuard
- Andrew Putnam
- Joseph Bramlett
- Tyler Duncan
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Cole Hammer
- Jimmy Walker
Be sure to tune in for PGA Live Before Lock, which airs at 8 p.m. ET!
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Round 3 ZOZO Championship Showdown PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Friday, 10/22/21
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