All of my PGA DFS picks and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for the AT&T Pebble Beach, and now it’s FREE!
[DAYTONA]
I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 50 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
Article Index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
- #NarrativeStreet
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
Last week was my first considerable sweat of the year as I went in the final round with a solid 6-for-6 and in 13th place in the $100 — with no Patrick Reed. I climbed all the way to third in the final round when Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris and Jon Rahm were all tied for third, but none of them ended up in the top five, sinking me down the board. Still, it was a profitable week across the board, including a solid showing in the second-round Showdown contests where I decided to take advantage of the easier North Course conditions. To my pleasant surprise, not everyone decided to do so. My Round 3 lineups were terrible, but luckily I stayed out of the higher-dollar stuff, so I only gave back about 20% of the profit from Day 3. Lastly, I had a nice Euro lineup. I made two, both ended up getting 6-for-6, and both cashed by tournament end. I am still about $2,000 in the red for the year, so work needs to be done.
AT&T Pebble Beach PGA DFS Picks
Viewing (Sweat) Schedule
Featured Groups is back at it this week, as PGA Tour Live will feature the following groups over the first two days:
- Jordan Spieth/Nick Taylor/Rickie Fowler — Pebble to Spyglass
- Jason Day/Si Woo Kim/Patrick Cantlay — Pebble to Spyglass
- Phil Mickelson/Max Homa/Paul Casey — Spyglass to Pebble
- Francesco Molinari/Brandt Snedeker/Stewart Cink — Spyglass to Pebble
Weather
While rain is not likely to be a factor, wind on Friday and mid-50s temps all week will be. The wind will remain constant through the whole weekend as well, even peaking above 30 mph at times.
Fantasy Golf Favorites for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
It’s extremely seldom that I think my two main guys, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth, are the two best players in the field, but I think they will be. I’m looking to catch Spieth before everyone believes in him again, so let’s roll this week.
PGA DFS Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Total Player Pool: 59
Week-Long DFS Contests
DraftKings
- 1 $555 Signature hole
- 2 $200 Driver
- 300+ GPP lineups, 150 of them being Spieth/Cantlay in the $5
FanDuel
- 1 $444
- 150 GPP lineups
Core Golfers
Paul Casey ($10,400 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel)
Travel, four straight weeks of competition and everyone moving to Daniel Berger and Jason Day equal rather low ownership for Casey. Projected around 13%, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that in my set of non-Spieth/Cantlay MMEs that I’ll have around 25% of Casey this week.
Will Zalatoris ($9,900 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)
I think this is a case of salary left. I like Zalatoris, Casey and Berger equally, but due to Zalatoris being cheaper than the other two, it’s likely I’ll get him in more lineups. If there is $200 or $500 remaining after I build out my lineups, then Casey and Berger will be supplemented.
Francesco Molinari ($9,300 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel)
Windy conditions always provide opportunities for short-game elitists to rise up the board, and when he’s got it going, Molinari is one of the best. Having played a good schedule of tournaments, he hasn’t had to worry about travel or getting tired. I like the set up here for Molinari, more so than Jason Day.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,000 DraftKings & FanDuel)
Momentum is real in this game, and NeSmith has shown that when he gets it going, he’s a force to be reckoned with. Now, his streak of gaining strokes on the approaches will be put to the test this week with the expected conditions, but given his upside, I like him here a lot this week, especially at lower ownership.
Peter Malnati ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel)
There aren’t many that are hotter with the putter right now than Malnati, and he has a strong approach game to go with it. We know he’s in good form, and he came in 11th last year. That along with his experience should help him get through to the weekend with ease.
Nick Taylor ($7,600 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel)
Course history debates will rage on forever, but Taylor has some good recent form as well. He missed the cut on the number last week and has held the lead in an event twice since this year’s Tournament of Champions. All that combined with the good form at this tournament makes him an easy PGA DFS pick in this price range for me.
Chez Reavie/Doug Ghim ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)
One of the better ball strikers this year, Ghim has played to the potential I thought he had. Reavie, on the other hand, hasn’t putted well at all, but his ball-striking numbers look pretty close. Given his history here, especially in the toughest of conditions at the U.S. Open (where he came in the top five), I think it is perfect buy-low spot for him.
Andrew Putnam ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)
If I’m playing all the short-game guys I like, I wouldn’t be doing myself any favors by leaving Putnam out. A great start last week finally broke a streak of bad ones, and now he comes to a course where he’s had success in the past. Ownership should still remain low, so I’ll get solid leverage on him this week.
Mark Hubbard ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)
Hubbard has had an up-and-down start to the season, making two of three cuts. However, that also included one of his best rounds ever on the PGA Tour, a 63 last Thursday. Given the fact that he’s put up about 90 points in both of the cuts he’s made, clearly he’s scoring well. If he just makes it to the weekend, Hubbard is likely to give you a solid return.
Gambles of the week ($7,000 and Below)
While I like golfers like Akshay Bhatia, Andy Ogletree, Davis Riley and Will Gordon, I’m not sold on any of them enough to give them a core spot this week. Believe it or not, they are all at least $300 more expensive then Michael Kim ($6,200/$7,000), who has made three of four cuts after missing so many in a row. Maybe the winds have changed for this once award-winning golfer.
Chalk Zone Key
This is how I’m allocating my shares to the expected chalk of the week. For this article, anyone projected over 10% for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be considered Chalk.
O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight
- Daniel Berger (U)
- Jason Day (U)
- Si Woo Kim (E)
- Sam Burns (E)
- Cameron Davis (E)
- Kevin Streelman (E to O)
- Max Homa (E to O)
- Henrik Norlander (E)
- Brian Harman (E to O)
- Matt Jones (E)
- James Hahn (E to U)
- Harold Varner III (U)
- Patton Kizzire (U)
- Joel Dahmen (E)
- Michael Thompson (E to U)
PGA DFS Fringe Players for DraftKings & FanDuel
* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 10-20% in GPPs.
- Rickie Fowler
- Brendan Steele
- Alex Noren
- Chris Kirk
- Rafa Cabrera Bello
- Maverick McNealy
- Will Gordon
- Andy Ogletree
- Akshay Bhatia
- Davis Riley
PGA DFS Alternates (5-15% GPPs)
- Rory Sabbatini
- Scott Stallings
- Adam Long
- Ryan Moore
- Sam Ryder
- Vaughn Taylor
- Patrick Rodgers
- Kristoffer Ventura
- Jim Herman
PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)
- Harry Higgs
- Tom Lewis
- Tom Hoge
- Nate Lashley
- Denny McCarthy
- Beau Hossler
- Josh Teater
- Min Woo Lee
- Seung-Yul Noh
- Sang Moon Bae
- J.J. Spaun
- Hunter Mahan
- Dominic Bozzelli
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