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above the cut

Above the Cut: PGA DFS Advice & Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for the 3M Open on DraftKings & FanDuel

Ben Rasa



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This week the PGA Tour turns to the 3M Open in Minneapolis, which is a pretty standard week on tour. This kind of tournament will become limited as the FedEx Cup playoffs and Olympics approach, as those have smaller fields and no-cut formats. This week the field is much weaker than last week’s at the British Open, but it still has some firepower up top. On the DFS side there is still plenty of money up for grabs, and this event is wide open for a potential season-saving performance for a lot of golfers. Let’s dive into the course, some expert DFS golf advice, field and daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

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The Course

TPC Twins Cities is the host for this event, and it is a pretty standard par 71 at just shy of 7,500 yards. There is only a few years’ worth of data, but expect lots of birdies. The other thing is this course is loaded with water, and that is going to up the variance and derail a handful of guys who do not have it dialed in off the tee. If they do not find the drink, the opportunities to hang low numbers will be there.

Even though there is not a ton of info, it is still the same blueprint that is going to yield success. Golfers need to be precise around the water, but they also need to be able to attack, as grinding out a few under par is not going to get it done. There will be a lot of longer iron shots since plenty of guys are conservative off the tee due to the danger lurking. Scrambling does not seem to be a major theme, and there will be less emphasis on distance than some longer courses. The greens are pretty standard with a bentgrass layout.

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The Field

Coming off a British Open, there are unsurprisingly a bunch of players choosing to take a week off. It is not all bad news for the 3M Open, as a few elites did make the trip, including top-priced favorite Dustin Johnson. He is followed by Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed in terms of the expensive options. The depth of the field is an issue, but that is often the case in these tournaments right after a major. The Olympics are also on deck, which made it an even tougher sell for players who are making the trip to Tokyo.

The positive about a tournament like this is there is a lot of win equity dispersed amongst the field. A few Europeans are looking to go the Garrick Higgo route and win right out of the gate, while many PGA Tour regulars need to solidify their status for next season. This is going to provide a lot of roster flexibility in terms of going stars and scrubs or more balanced in the mid-ranges.

One question about a post-major tournament is, does one worry about fatigue from players who played last week in Europe? It is not a straight yes or no question because there are circumstances that would provide a slight hesitation, but on the whole it is OK to roster players who were in The British Open. Besides the fact they are the best players in the field, it was not an overly brutal test with the lack of wind, and the travel is not a huge issue.

Check out some 3M Open betting picks with Josh Engleman and Ben Rasa!

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week | The 3M Open

Top Priced: Tony Finau $10,700 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel

Once again Tony Finau is towards the top of salary range. He is a prolific scorer but cannot seem to close the door and win tournaments. His lone victory is not good enough for a guy this talented, and that lack of win equity can be a deterrent when paying this salary. Finau is going to win more than his fair share during his career, and tournaments like this present a real chance to do that.

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Finau is coming off a respectable 15th-place finish last week at the British Open and now comes to a course where he has had some success. Last year was one of the many tournaments Finau had a chance to win, but a few mistakes landed him in third. His game sets up perfectly here, as tee to green he is among the best in the field and has the length to attack the par 5’s. Longer irons are also not a problem for Finau, so a lot of the key skillsets are right in his range. Johnson is always a worthy favorite, but besides him the rest of the top range is not overly strong. Finau is a worthy starting point in lineups and could earn some of the highest exposures.

Also considering – Sergio Garcia, Emiliano Grillo

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Mid-Range: Luke List $8,100 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel

Luke List is a frustrating player to deal with since he has long stretches of ice-cold putting and then seemingly finds a groove out of nowhere. That is the case right now, as he was fourth at the John Deere Classic and followed that up with a fifth-place showing last week at Barbasol. His tee-to-green game was on fire, gaining List 10.1 and 12.7 strokes, which is tournament-winning ball striking. Furthermore, his putter was not as big of a liability, and if that continues, List is going to be in the hunt once again.

List’s price is directly in the mid-range, and that feels reasonable given his recent surge in play. In Awesemo’s Daily Fantasy Golf Ownership Projections he is around 10%, which again feels fair given the field strength and the recent form.

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Also considering – Doug Ghim, Patrick Rodgers

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace

Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Lower Priced: Kyle Stanley $7,300 DraftKings, FanDuel $8,500

Unlike List, rostering Kyle Stanley this year has not produced a ton of brutal endings, but more some missed opportunities. Stanley comes in having made seven straight cuts, but just one of those finishes resulted in a top-25. The lack of upside can be directly linked to the putter, which has been nonexistent even through the made-cut streak. Stanley has lost strokes putting in six straight events, and that has to change for him to really grab significant placement points this week. Stanley’s ball striking stands out in this price range, as his irons and off-tee game are fully in form.

Considering Stanley has been returning decent value without the putter, it is easier to buy. If not, Stanley still can find the weekend, make some birdies and be a solid addition to lots of lineups. He is cash viable, and at 10% ownership per Awesemo’s Daily Fantasy Golf Ownership Projections, he is possibly the best play on the entire slate given the price.

Also Considering – Byeong Hun An, Kevin Tway

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Looking for more the best PGA DFS advice and DFS PGA lineups? FantasyDraft DFS PGA rankings for today will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. The Yahoo! PGA DFS projections for today, the FanDuel DFS PGA showdown projections for this week and the DFS PGA ownership projections are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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