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above the cut

Above the Cut: PGA DFS Advice & Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for The British Open on DraftKings & FanDuel

Ben Rasa



PGA DFS Picks DraftKings fantasy golf Mayakoba Golf CLassic today tonight this week free expert advice tips strategy cheat sheet Justin Thomas

It is time for the last major of the 2021 season, with the PGA Tour heading across the pond for the British Open. This means extremely early mornings DFS golf for the East Coast and a course that is unlike anything we see on tour. On the daily fantasy golf side of things, there are million-dollar prize pools up for grabs and plenty of tournaments worth entering. Let’s dive into the course, players and potential factors to consider for daily fantasy golf picks this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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The Course

The tour heads to Royal St. George’s, which previously hosted British Opens in 1993, 2003 and 2011. There is not much to do with that since that is 10 years since the last event, but it is still worth noting what skillsets were important. This is a par-70 layout measuring around 7,200 yards, but it still can play longer than it seems. A few par 3’s can stretch near 250 yards, and one of the par 5’s is littered with danger, so big numbers are in play.

Like any links course, the biggest defense is the rain and windy conditions combatting the layout. The weather is going to change as lock approaches so keep an eye on it and update rosters as necessary. The less wind there is the more pure ball strikers should factor in. If players are able to attack these pins without wind issues, there are birdies out there and scores could be low. If the wind is up, target more around the green and scramblers. An extension of the scrambling is avoiding and surviving sand traps, which are monsters and can be the death of any round.

A links-style course like this is going to test the full bag, but distance is not a prerequisite. Time and time again crafty players have gotten into contention at the British Open, and that will not be changing this year. This course off the tee provides some random bounces, and there will be options in terms of being aggressive or laying back. The one thing golfers need to manage is the misses, as the penalty is severe for being in the thick stuff. The greens are bentgrass and should slower given the potential winds.

Check out Jason Rouslin’s favorite daily fantasy golf picks this week with this Top 5 PGA DFS Sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel, with players like Justin Rose and Adam Scott.

The Field

There has been a string of withdrawals, including Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, so a ton of alternates were able to get in. Jon Rahm is the highest priced golfer in the field, and he just broke through to win his first major a few weeks ago. He is followed by Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele to round out the $10,000 options. Naturally, there is still a ton of world-class talent in the lower ranges, and gamers can build pretty much any type of lineup effectively.

Also, the bottom of this pricing is much stronger than some of the other majors. At the Masters there are a bunch of former winners who have no chance, and the PGA Championship has 25 PGA pros who would need a miracle to compete. At the U.S. Open there are Open qualifiers that bring in a lot of guys with little to no experience. The British Open, however, has some guys with little experience, but it is mostly non-PGA Tour players who have links experience. That in some ways gives them an advantage, and some of the lower-$6,000 guys should show up this week. That does not mean to start rostering crazy guys at the bottom, but it does offer flexibility.

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week | The British Open

Top Priced: Justin Thomas $9,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

With the top of the board, there are plenty of ways to go up top. Jon Rahm is the rightful favorite, but he is also pushing 20%-plus ownership and is the most expensive player. Then there is McIlroy and Koepka who are also at premium tags. Taking a slight savings can help the rest of the build, and that is what Thomas provides.

Thomas has the game to win anywhere, and he already has a major and a Players Championship on his resume. In 2021 the big question has been his putting, which has cost him at times. Still, he is excellent with short irons in his hands, and conditions should be right for him. Thomas played last week in Scotland and finish eighth. He has previous links experience, and his game has been solid all year outside of the putting woes. The best players in the world all have the ability to get in contention, but the combination of price, ownership and course fit point to Thomas.

Also considering – Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth

Mid-Range: Tommy Fleetwood $8,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel

The high-$7,000 and low-$8,000 ranges are some of the most difficult salary tiers this week. There plenty of players who can get in the mix, but there is also a lot of danger also lurking. Matthew Fitzpatrick is one of the safer plays in that area, but Fleetwood offers more risk/reward. Both of these guys have links experience, and Fleetwood was runner-up in the last British Open in 2019.

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The 2021 season has not been up to Fleetwood’s standards, but he is a respectable 15 of 19 in cuts made on the PGA Tour. Coming in he had two decent showings in Europe, with a 17th at the Irish Open and a 26th last week in Scotland. He needs to avoid the danger off the tee; if he does, that it should be more than enough to get in the mix. Fleetwood is coming in around 10% in Awesemo’s Ownership Projections. He is paired with Justin Thomas, which gives them the opportunity to work with calm conditions together.

Also considering – Adam Scott, Abraham Ancer

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace

Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Lower Priced: Branden Grace $7,200 DraftKings, FanDuel $8,800

Depending on how aggressive one plans to be up top, they may be able to land in the $7,000 range to round out lineups. That would make it much easier, as guys like Russell Henley, Alex Noren and Branden Grace all make for reasonable plays at $7,200. That is not to say the $6,000 range does not have tournament targets, but the missed-cut probability certainly increases.

Grace also has plenty of links experience and excels in brutal conditions. He won this year in Puerto Rico and comes in off a fourth at Memorial and a seventh at the U.S. Open. His irons seem to be dialed in, as Grace gained 4.8 and 6.8 in those two events. He has missed only one British Open cut in nine appearances, so he should be good enough to at least be in for four rounds.

Also Considering – Charley Hoffman, Lucas Herbert

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Looking for more DFS PGA lineups and PGA DFS picks for this week? FanDuel DFS PGA rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. The DraftKings DFS PGA projections for today, the DFS PGA showdown projections for FanDuel and the DraftKings PGA DFS ownership projections are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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