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above the cut

Above the Cut: PGA DFS Advice & Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on DraftKings & FanDuel

Ben Rasa



Ben Rasa's expert daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS lineups for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational with Tommy Fleetwood.

The PGA Tour resumes after a one-week break for the Tokyo Olympics. The tour heads to TPC Southwind for a WGC, the second straight non-cut event. Almost all of the world’s best have made the trip, which means a lot of players flew straight from Tokyo to Memphis. Gauging how that will affect players is impossible, but with a familiar course and field, there is plenty to break down with daily fantasy golf picks for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

The Course

TPC Southwind is a fairly challenging test with the winner usually ending up between -10 and -15. Since it has been a non-cut in recent years, the strength of the field and the guaranteed four rounds make the scoring even better. Players will face a par 70 roughly 7,250 yards, so being a bomber is not a necessity. There are a lot of different types of golfers who have excelled here. Water is a major factor, so being able to avoid it will be paramount. Narrow fairways and small greens are going to make timely scrambling important. Targeting elite ball strikers seems to be the way to go when talking tee to green, but that is usually a pretty safe option no matter the event. Greens are Bermuda, but that is more of a tiebreaker. For course history, remember that this used to be a traditional event before moving to the WGC the last few years.

The Field

Again there is a smaller pool of players to choose from. This is a standard WGC with almost all the top golfers in the world in attendance and a handful of lesser-known names to round out the salaries. Collin Morikawa is the highest-priced player followed by Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka. There are six players north of $10,000 this week, so going balanced incurs even more risk than usual.

The field thins quickly, and the bottom ranges are full of players from countries that are not major golf hubs. Like Rory Sabbatini and some other punt plays last week, these ranges can be incredibly useful. In a non-cut the ownership is inflated across the board, so even some of the lesser-known names will have a little exposure across tournament fields.

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Top Priced: Rory McIlroy ($10,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

Justin Thomas has had a poor year outside of the Players, and several other top names also have had their struggles. Rory McIlroy is in a similar bucket for 2021, but his game is coming around as the season draws to a close. McIlroy followed up a missed cut at Augusta with a win at Wells Fargo, and that speaks to his range of outcome. In 2019 he missed the cut in Northern Ireland at the British Open and then flew to Memphis for this event and finished fourth.

McIlroy should gain off the tee as he usually does, and he prefers Bermuda over the other surfaces. The big question is, can he take advantage of the wedge and short iron opportunities? At flat $10,000, he allows for an easier build with another top-end option.

Also Considering – Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP Only)

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Mid-Range: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood had a huge Saturday and had himself in position to compete for a medal entering the final round. However, he could not get much going, and that masked what could have been a positive week in an average-at-best 2021 season.

Fleetwood’s game has been all over the map, which is why his ownership sits at just around 8% in Awesemo’s Daily Fantasy Golf Ownership Projections. Typically he leans on a crisp iron game and does not mind adverse conditions, but at times this year he has not been able to dial it in. Still, Fleetwood is closer than most, and given the combination of an $8,000 price tag and possibly sub-10% ownership, he is worth buying.

Also Considering – Tyrrell Hatton, Sergio Garcia

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Lower Priced: Max Homa ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

There are some options at the very bottom of the $6,000 range, but the upper-$6,000s are better. Max Homa has had an erratic year, and the recent form tells exactly that. He has two sixth-place finishes in his last eight events but also four missed cuts over the same stretch. The wild card is his putter which was plus-12.2 in those two top-10 finishes and negative in every other event over that time period.

Although Homa has not had any success at this WGC, he has a few reps at the event. His tee-to-green game is in form, and his putter has shown some upside this season. Homa is live to outscore his placement points, which is extremely important when talking about salary savers. In a range full of boom/bust options, Homa has as much boom potential as anyone.

Also Considering – Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner

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The Yahoo! DFS PGA projections for today, the DFS PGA showdown projections and the FanDuel PGA DFS ownership projections for this week are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. FantasyDraft PGA DFS rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more DFS PGA predictions and DFS PGA predictions?

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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