Daily Fantasy Golf Expert Picks This Week Tokyo Olympics

For the second time in the last decade, golf will be featured at the Summer Olympics, and as usual Awesemo has you covered with DFS golf projections. The event will be contested as a 60-man field, with most countries having one to two players as representatives. Because the United States had so many players inside the top 15, they get to send four players (Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed). Both Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau had to withdraw due to COVID-19, but they were replaced, keeping the field tight at 60 players.

The event will be contested at Kasumigaseki Country Club in Tokyo, Japan. The venue was redesigned in 2014 by Tom Fazio, who has had a hand in designing some of the venues on the PGA Tour. He described the venue as big with wide-open fairways comparable to Donald Ross designs. It will play as a long par 71, but do not expect a U.S. Open setup with small fairways or long rough. The weather should also play a factor, as humidity and rain will likely keep the course soft and lead to easy-to-hit greens. Expect iron players to win out here and potentially very low scoring.

Kasumigaseki Country Club Stats and Info

Par 71, will play between 7,400 and 7,600 yards depending on the setup. Features bentgrass greens that should play slow and wet due to rain and humidity.
Venue was featured numerous times on the Japan Tour and in junior events; Hideki Matsuyama won here twice as a junior.
Designed by Tom Fazio; expect bigger fairways and driving accuracy stats similar to Congaree.

Putting Splits

Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Sungjae Im: -3 strokes on bentgrass, +32 strokes on all other surfaces
2. Si Woo Kim: +2 on bentgrass, -6 on all other surfaces
3. Corey Conners: -9 on bentgrass, -2 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Tommy Fleetwood: +16 on bentgrass, even split on all other surfaces
2. Sepp Straka: +16 on bentgrass, -4 on all other surfaces
3. Alex Noren: +23 on bentgrass, +13 on all other surfaces

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

Xander Schauffele: Grades: A, B Values: D

Schauffele enters this event off a 26th placing at the British Open a couple of weeks ago. He may not have been in contention at the British Open, but the finish marked a strong run at the last two majors that saw him post a tie for seventh place at the U.S. Open. Despite a record that includes numerous top-10s in majors and top-five finishes the last couple of seasons, Schauffele still has not picked up a win since the 2019 Tournament of Champions — another limited field event.

Schauffele feels like he will have a great shot ending that slump this week, though, as he has typically been very clutch at limited-field events. He has also shown some vast improvement in his long game over the past month or so and gained five strokes on approach in his last two U.S. starts prior to the games. Schauffele’s improved ball striking and consistency, which includes seven top-five finishes over his last 18 starts on the PGA, makes him a good pay-up here. He also ranks first in the Awesemo projections this week in pure points and win percentage. As the third-most expensive player in the field, Schauffele is not a screaming value, but his current output suggests the real pop could be coming very soon.

The Stats:

Second in this field in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds.
Ranks fourth in this field in strokes gained putting on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds; third in DraftKings points during that same span.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.4%

Latest PGA DFS Content

Corey Conners: Grades: C Values: C

If the course is wet and this event becomes all about who can hit it closest, Conners may have a chance at the upset gold. He is never going to be confused for a great putter, but he is one of the best ball strikers in the world, ranking second in strokes gained tee to green and on approach over the last 50 rounds. While he has not posted a top-10 since the RBC Heritage, Conners has been making cuts and came back to life at the British Open, where he finished tied 15th.

From an Awesemo model perspective, Conners ranks quite well. He has the highest points projection of anyone in the $8,000 range and also ranks ahead of several players in the $9,000 range in that regard (including Joaquin Niemann and Shane Lowry). His daily fantasy golf ownership is not likely to get out of control due to the price either, and it is worth noting that he came over to Asia for both the Zozo Championship (Japan) and C.J. Cup in 2019 and promptly finished sixth and 12th in those events. Like this venue, the Zozo’s host course featured a lot of rain that year, and Conners may be capable of producing that same kind of result here or even something better. He is a good upper-tier target and is familiar with this part of the world.

The Stats:

Second in strokes gained tee to green and on approach over the last 50 rounds.
Ranks first in eagles and opportunities over the last 50 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.7%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Patrick Reed

Reed is the ultimate gamble this week, as he was not even supposed to be in the event until last Saturday night when DeChambeau withdrew. While it would be right to question most players’ readiness, Reed is well known for playing nearly every week and is coming off a 34th placing at the 3M Open where he gained 2.1 strokes on approach and around the greens. While he has had an up-and-down season, Reed has also come close to some big trophies too, as he finished inside the top 10 at the Masters, the Memorial and the Wells Fargo over the last three months.

Reed may not stick out statistically like some of the other elite Americans in the stats, but he has plenty of experience playing overseas and has picked up multiple short-field wins, including his Tournament of Champions triumph back in 2015 and WGC Mexico victory in March 2020. With a high salary (he is $600 more expensive than Paul Casey on DraftKings) and DFS players likely to find fault with his short prep, Reed’s daily fantasy golf ownership could drift well under 10% here, which makes him a great GPP pivot in the high-end range.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.7%

Be sure to check out our Awesemo PGA Strategy Show for the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics with expert daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!

DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,700)

Munoz is coming off a missed cut at the British Open but is one of the true PGA Tour regulars available at under $8,000 this week. He collected 23 birdies at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago and is one of the best birdie makers in this field; over the last 50 rounds he ranks 10th in birdies and second of anyone under $8,000 on DraftKings this week. Munoz is pushing for potential under 10% ownership.

Matthias Schwab ($7,000)

Schwab was a near winner on the PGA Tour last season and is known to be one of the better long game players over in Europe. He finished 12th or better in five of six starts earlier in 2021 and is coming in well under the radar despite having some great pedigree. Schwab is a great pivot in this range with two players (Jhonattan Vegas and Henrik Norlander) who both project to be popular.

Alex Noren ($8,200)

Noren enters this event with a DraftKings salary over $8,000 and off the back of two missed cuts. The equation here means he will be quite low owned, even in a watered-down 60-man field. Just a few events ago Noren threatened for the win on a Donald Ross design in Detroit (finished fourth), and Noren’s putting alone (23 strokes gained on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds) could make him dangerous here.

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