Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings Projections

We are only one week away from the first big PGA event of 2021, but before we get to TPC Sawgrass, the tour makes a brief stop at one of its more iconic venues in Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While it’s been moved around the schedule a couple of times, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is an integral part of the Florida swing and gives players another chance to go chasing after the bigger money available at these invitational stops. The daily fantasy golf field this week has lost a couple of big names (Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, to name a few), but there are a plethora of other interesting golfers around this week who would love to get 2021 started with a win — or just find some form before the year’s first big event. So who are we going to be looking to go to as daily fantasy golf picks to build our lineups around on DraftKings and FanDuel?

As for the venue, Bay Hill plays as a traditional par 72, with four par 5’s that all measure in between 500 and 590 yards. These holes are the four easiest on the course but aren’t necessarily auto birdies, as trouble does lurk off the tee on a couple of them. The par-5 16th can be a huge swing hole down the stretch, and we’ve seen many a big eagle putt holed there throughout the years. In terms of players you should be targeting, this venue is long but driving distance typically rates under the tour average. Greens-in-regulation percentages are also low, and the winners here tend to be up in strokes gained on approach and greens in regulation (last year’s winner, Tyrrell Hatton, was second in the field in approach last year at +7.5). Bay Hill is really more of all-encompassing test, and Hatton gained strokes throughout the bag, including +3.4 on the greens, during his win.

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Bay Hill Stats and Info

Bay Hill typically presents players with lots of long approaches on long par 4’s and par 5’s. Shots over 200 yards is the most popular approach basket.
The fairways are easy to hit, but driving distance typically still is 5 to 7 yards lower than the tour average due to the 70-plus bunkers and water in play (on over half the holes).
Five of the last six winners of this event all had recorded a top-five finish at Bay Hill in a previous year before winning.

Putting Splits

The greens at Bay Hill are TifEagle Bermuda and will be similar in style to the ones we saw last week at Concession. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. J.T. Poston: +43 strokes on Bermudagrass, +22 on all other surfaces
2. Peter Malnati: +42 on Bermudagrass, +8 on all other surfaces
3. Charl Schwartzel: +22 on Bermudagrass, +2 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Si Woo Kim: -15 on Bermudagrass, +9 on all other surfaces
2. Doug Ghim: -19 on Bermudagrass, +8 on all other surfaces
3. Justin Rose: -1 on Bermudagrass, +22 on all other surfaces

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Tyrrell Hatton: Grades: A Values: C, B

Hatton comes into this week off a 22nd at Concession. He has been on a tear ever since winning at Bay Hill last spring and comes into this event on fire with his irons. He is fifth in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds, but his short-term form is arguably better, as he’s gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach in five of his last six starts. While his off-tee game used to be a liability, his consistency off the tee has reached new heights as well over the last six months, and he enters the week 14th in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds — he has also gained strokes off the tee in nine of his last 10 starts.

In short, everything is clicking for Hatton, and he has the perfect all-around game to tackle tricky Bay Hill, which has never discerned much between bombers and shorter hitters. His $10,000 DraftKings salary also sticks out, as he’s technically the highest-ranked golfer in this field in the OWGR yet comes in as the fifth-most expensive on the slate. He’s ranked fourth in points projections in the Awesemo model but has the best value score of any player $9,000 or more on DraftKings this week. For daily fantasy golf play, he is a great upper-tier value.

The Stats:

Has gained strokes ball striking (off the tee and approach) in nine of last 10 measured starts on the PGA Tour.
Perfect 4-for-4 in terms of made cuts at Bay Hill and has gained over 1.0 stroke around and on the greens here the last two seasons.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.8% | FanDuel: 18.1%

Jason Kokrak: Grades: B, Values: B

A win can do wonders for one’s confidence, and Kokrak’s confidence after his career-defining win at the CJ Cup last Fall seems to have given his career a big jolt. He enters this week off a solid ninth-place finish at the first WGC of the season last week, where he gained 4.1 strokes off the tee and 4.1 strokes on the greens. While Kokrak’s power off the tee is still some of the purest on tour, it has been his work on the greens lately that has him on track. He ranks 10th in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds and has gained 4.0 strokes or more with the flat stick in four of his last eight starts.

As for course history, he has boatloads of that too, as he’ll be playing Bay Hill for the ninth time in his career and has finished inside the top 20 here on four occasions, including 18th and 10th the last two seasons. Kokrak sets up as a gem at $8,100 on DraftKings, and it’s definitely reflecting in the model this week too. He has the sixth-best value score of anyone on the slate, the best value score of anyone over $7,000 and the best points projection of anyone $9,000 and under. Even if he ends up as the slate chalk, being overweight on him at this price isn’t a bad deal at all.

The Stats:

Ranked 10th in Birdies gained over the last 50 rounds
Has gained strokes off the tee and on approach at Bay Hill in each of his past six starts, and has gained 4.0 strokes or more off the tee here in each of the past two seasons

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 25.4% | FanDuel: 24.9%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Alex Noren

Noren enters this week off a fine week at Riviera. He had been treading water but popped up on the leaderboard there over the weekend and was able to grind out a 12th in some tough conditions. The result was perhaps a little disappointing, but there were lots of encouraging things to take from it. Noren gained strokes on both his approaches and off the tee, an achievement he hadn’t accomplished since the RSM last Fall. Normally an around-the-green and putting wizard, the uptick in iron play is something we should take note of here, as he was once one of the more consistent iron players on tour.

Noren has been able to grind out decent results even with the inconsistent ball striking (he was 17th at the U.S. Open), and he’ll be seeing Bay Hill for the fourth time in competition this year, a venue where experience generally pays off. Trending with ownership that has him projected at well under 5% ownership, Noren’s increasing form is worth betting on here for a GPP daily fantasy golf pick.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 1.6%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500)

I featured Bezuidenhout here last week, and he came through as a very nice pivot play, beating out other chalk in this area handily. Bezuidenhout has a lot of confidence and finished 18th here last year on his first time through the course. He putted well on the Bermuda last week, and if he can find even just a small gear up with his irons, his elite play on and around the green could carry him at this equally tough venue.

Byeong Hun An ($7,100)

An comes in a little under the radar, but he has made four cuts in a row and is only a month removed from an eighth-place finish at the American Express. He has typically been a much more consistent putter on Bermuda and has a very nice record at Bay Hill, as he’s made the cut here five straight years and finished 11th and 14th here in 2018 and 2019. An is another player who is trending with minimal to no ownership but whose form suggests another big week could come at any time.

Henrik Norlander ($7,200)

Norlander was the chalky, in-form player that everyone was targeting to begin the season, but now that he’s missed one cut (at Riviera), his betting price has skyrocketed again and his ownership projections have come way down. He rates out well for Bay Hill with his high driving accuracy and elite iron play. He ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach here over the past 50 rounds and will be playing the course for the second time in his career this week — he missed the cut here last year.

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