Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for AT&T Byron Nelson on DraftKings & FanDuel

After a couple stops at classic tour venues, there is a new course on the schedule this week for the return of the AT&T Byron Nelson. The event was cancelled last year but returns to its normal place on the schedule right before the PGA Championship here. That event was played at Trinity Forest, but it will be held at TPC Craig Ranch this season, a Tom Weiskopf design just outside of Dallas. Weiskopf also designed one of the more famous courses on tour in TPC Scottsdale, which plays to a similar yardage as Craig Ranch but is just a par 71, so we have a slight comp to make our daily fantasy golf picks off of for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups this week.

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With it being a week out from the second major championship of the season, there are a few extra elite names in attendance here, as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth will all be teeing up. Spieth and Matsuyama both haven’t played since Augusta, so their performance here will likely go a long way to determining their final odds for the PGA Championship next week. Spieth is a Dallas native and will be joined by other fellow Texans in the field like Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris, for whom this week is a bit of a home game. The new course should bring in some extra volatility and looks to be a fair test with a mix of tough and challenging holes.

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TPC Craig Ranch Stats and Info

Par 72, 7,554 yards featuring bentgrass on the greens; venue was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004 and hosted the 2012 Korn Ferry Tour Championship.
Venue features just a couple of large water hazards, but there is a creek that runs through the course and is in play on several holes; fairways are larger than average as well, and while some holes are heavily tree-lined, there are plenty of wide open landing spots as well.
Four par 5’s (three of which are 560 yards or less), along with five par 4’s that measure longer than 450 yards.

Putting Splits

The greens at TPC Craig Ranch are pure bentgrass, and if the weather holds up, they will likely play quicker as the week goes on. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst bentgrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Marc Leishman: -16 on bentgrass, +17 on all other surfaces
2. Brooks Koepka: -1 on bentgrass, +12 on all other surfaces
3. Keith Mitchell: -15 on bentgrass, +7 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Beau Hossler: +44 on bentgrass, +2 on all other surfaces
2. Jason Day: +18 on bentgrass, -6 on all other surfaces
3. Rickie Fowler: +13 on bentgrass, -4 on all other surfaces

Latest PGA DFS Content

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Will Zalatoris: Grades: A, B | Values: B

Zalatoris missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo, where he was a popular DFS play in many contests. The missed cut isn’t likely to keep people off him here, as he still grades extremely well in most models and ranks first in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds. Zalatoris has only missed two cuts in 17 PGA starts since last fall, and he ranks 11th in both birdies gained and bogies avoided over the last 50 rounds. While the slip in ball striking last week could be worrisome, it is worth noting that he bounced back from his other missed cut on tour in the fall by finishing fifth in his last start. He also has yet to lose strokes on his approaches in two straight starts (he lost strokes to the field in that category last week).

Zalatoris has the fourth-best points projection of anyone in the Awesemo PGA DFS projection model for this event and also carries the second-best value score of anyone above $9,000, so there’s not a better blend of upside and value in the upper range. His missed cut last week is also likely going to keep ownership palatable, so loading up on him in MME construction on DraftKings and FanDuel isn’t a terrible idea either.

The Stats:

Ranks first in strokes gained on approach, second in strokes gained tee to green and fifth in DraftKings points scored over the last 50 rounds.
Lost 2.2 strokes putting last week but has yet to lose multiple strokes putting to the field in back-to-back weeks on the PGA Tour.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.7%

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Daniel Berger: Grades: A, B | Values: B

Berger is No. 6 in the Awesemo PGA DFS projections, but also carries the fifth-highest top-six percentage in the field. He last played at the RBC Heritage, where he looked remarkably sharp after missing the cut at the Masters and gained 7.1 strokes in the ball-striking department alone. Berger has been on quite a run since returning from injury at the beginning of last season and enters this event having gained strokes off the tee and on approach in five straight starts.

Even if he is a touch behind some of the top plays in terms of projections or win percentage, Berger offers solid value here and has had a comparable start to 2021 to Spieth, who costs $600 more than him on DraftKings. Berger also brings in lower ownership projections than several of the top players, making him a solid leverage play to go heavy on if playing multiple lineups.

The Stats:

Ranks 10th or better in strokes gained ball striking, off the tee, tee to green and putting over the last 50 rounds.
Has produced 70 or more DraftKings points in nine of his last 11 starts on tour and is eighth in birdies gained over the last 50 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.5%

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Jason Day

Day has burned any good will he built up with DFS players during a run last season, which saw him land four top-10s in a row between July and August of 2020. He has shown glimpses of good ball striking of late, though, but they have been camouflaged by missed cuts, caused mainly some terrible play on the greens. Day has actually gained strokes off the tee in eight straight starts (so he is putting himself in decent positions) and has gained strokes ball striking in two straight starts.

Day’s consistency with his long clubs seems to be forming, but he’s yet to return to his normal baseline on the greens, where he’s lost strokes putting in three straight starts. While it is hard to trust, he does rank well in the model this week and has the highest point projection of any player under $9,000 on DraftKings. With his ownership projection sitting around 7%, he’s a “plug your nose and roster” kind of daily fantasy golf pick in big GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.7%

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DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust daily fantasy golf picks here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,100)

Rodgers had one terrible round last week, which really sunk his chances, but he also produced three rounds of 70 or better, 16 birdies and an eagle on a tough course. His ball striking finally showed some improvement last week and could carry over here at miniscule ownership.

K.H. Lee ($6,900)

Lee comes in having made four cuts in a row and opened with a 66 last week at the Wells Fargo. He finished second early in the year at the Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale and has been making cuts despite not putting well. If that club flips for him, he could pop here.

Thomas Pieters ($8,600)

Pieters has looked close each time he has made a start on the PGA this year, finishing eighth in the team event and landing two top-15s in the alternate-field events in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as well. Pieters ranks sixth in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds and projects with sub-5% ownership for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson.

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