Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: DraftKings Projections

We head back into the West coast this week for what could be a variance-filled event in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Pebble Beach often has a lot of surprise names up on the leaderboard every season, and this year the weather and weaker field could make it even a touch crazier. So far a lot of decent names have withdrawn, including pre-event favorite Dustin Johnson, who was +400 before he pulled the plug. The event will be different this year, with just two courses (Spyglass and Pebble) in play instead of three and a 36-hole cut instead of a 54-hole cut. We’ll have more data to go on now for our daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

As a venue, Pebble plays to the strengths of those who have a creative short game and can catch fire with their irons. It’s not a hard course (unless it’s being setup for the U.S. Open), but it’s a tricky one that requires some knowledge. Winners since 2000 have all had at least one top-20 at Pebble on their record before breaking, through so if you were ever to weigh course history, this would be the week to do it. The short par 72 has a lot of doglegs and shorter holes that require players to lay up off the tee, so off-tee play is deemphasized while approach play and short games need to be sharp.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Golf Links Info

The field has averaged 10 to 12 yards under the tour average in driving distance the past few seasons, making this one of the least driver heavy courses on the circuit.
Two of the last four winners here have lost strokes off the tee, but each of the past four winners gained 2.5 or more strokes on approach through their two rounds on Pebble in the year of their win.
Driving accuracy numbers are typically quite high here (players club down a lot), but rates of greens in regulation are not, as players typically hit 3-5% fewer greens than usual; with poor weather in the forecast, look for scrambling and around-the-green play to be important this season.

Putting Splits

The greens at Pebble Beach are pure Poa annua and well known as some of the bumpiest on tour. Their similar to what the players saw at Torrey Pines and plenty of golfers have found success at both venues. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst poa putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Rafa Cabrera Bello: +22 strokes on poa, +1 on all other surfaces
2. Jason Day : +26 on poa, +15 on all other surfaces
3. Phil Mickelson : +21 on poa, -17 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Cameron Davis: -9 on poa, +15 on all other surfaces
2. Norlander: -1 on poa, +16 on all other surfaces
3. Sam Burns: +7 on poa, +34 on all other surfaces

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DraftKings & FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach

Francesco Molinari: Grades: A Values: B

Molinari comes into this week off the back of two insanely strong starts, where he gained multiple strokes in every major statistical category except on the greens. The eighth and 10th finishes were great too, but from a stat perspective the numbers from Molinari were a legit throwback to 2018 when he was getting himself in contention in plenty of big events and eventually pushed through for his first major. While it’s possible this has been two-week blip, the fact Molinari was so consistent at both the Farmers and the American Express with his irons and short game should have us buoyed about the possibilities for him this week.

Molinari has only played Pebble once back, at the U.S. Open back in 2019, and that week had him gaining over 5 strokes around Pebble’s small, tricky greens while finishing a solid 16th. The fact he still managed a top-20 on his debut here without having a great week with his irons is a great sign, and Molinari shares a lot of similar traits to another former Pebble winner, Graeme McDowell, who also used around-the-green and iron play to grab wins throughout his career. Molinari ranks fifth in points projection, fourth in win percentage and has the best value score of any player over $9,000 in the Awesemo model this week. He’s a great mid-range target, and his type of game is one we have seen have success at Pebble on a year in, year out basis.

The Stats:

Has gained strokes around the greens now five straight starts.
Has gained 1.9 strokes or more on his approaches now in three straight starts.
Ranks sixth in strokes gained tee to green and sixth in strokes gained around the green on the PGA this year.
Gained 5.2 strokes around the green in his only appearance at Pebble (16th, U.S. Open).

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.3% | FanDuel: 18.6%

Brian Harman: Grades: B, Values: B

Harman is an easy player to forget, as his consistency often gets him priced in the upper mid-range on DraftKings, where he’ll be matched against more explosive players. The weak field and grind it out nature of this event though makes him a pretty exciting target for me this week. Harman’s approach game can be hit or miss — he gained 4.0 strokes on approach at the American Express then lost 3.6 strokes on approach at the Waste Management — but his around-the-green play and putting are consistently excellent. Harman ranks top five over the last 50 rounds in strokes gained in short game, and putting and won’t be hampered by his lack of distance off the tee at Pebble as much as he usually is.

Harman has played this event five times now and posted a career-best 11th here back in 2012. The possible weather boost and his course fit aside, Harman’s recent production also put him high up in the site’s model this week, as he has the highest points projection of anyone under $8,500 on DraftKings and the second-best value score of anyone in that range as well. His form is something to take advantage of this week, regardless of the site you’re playing on.

The Stats:

Ranks third in strokes gained putting over the last 50 rounds.
Has gained strokes around the green in six of the last seven tournaments.
Sixteenth in DraftKings fantasy points per round over the last 24 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.9% | FanDuel: 9.7%

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Kyle Stanley

Stanley isn’t trending with insanely low ownership — likely a product of the weaker field — but given that he’s not going to be uber chalk either, he felt deserving of this spot. Stanley is starting to heat up with his irons and enters this week having gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in his last two starts. A short but accurate driver when he’s playing well, Stanley will not be as impeded by his lack of distance off the tee at Pebble, a venue he’s played seven times in the past. While there are not been many high finishes here for Stanley, it’s worth noting that his short game recently has been on point, as he comes in having gained over a stroke around the greens over his last three starts. He has gained strokes at Pebble on his approaches in each of his last six appearances, so it is plausible the added sharpness to his scrambling could put him over the top here at what should be a suitable layout for one of the best iron players on tour. He is a nice GPP play given the lack of a price increase after his third solid week in a row.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.9%

Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside as daily fantasy golf picks.

Branden Grace ($7,200)

Grace’s only venture onto the PGA in 2021 has been a missed cut at the Sony, but he did look strong towards the end of 2020 and put up a solid top-10 at the DP World Championship event on the Euro Tour late last season. He has played Pebble twice and had two solid starts here, finishing 20th on debut here in 2018. If the weather gets nasty, he has the short game and tenacity to deal with it as well.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,700)

Cabrera-Bello is another solid links player who won’t mind if the wind picks up a bit here. He already has three starts under his belt in 2021 from overseas and started the year off with a solid fourth in Abu Dhabi. Cabrera-Bello has played this event five times previously and has a 22nd-place finish to his credit from a couple years back. Trending well already to start the year, he should bring low ownership. He looks like a solid kind of GPP pivot on DraftKings and FanDuel this week given the weather and his recent form.

Kevin Chappell ($6,800)

Chappell could also make for a great GPP pivot here. A veteran of this event, he has made the cut in six of the last seven seasons that he’s played Pebble and has finished eighth and 25th here the last two times he’s played. It’s a complete shot-in-the-dark play, but he clearly feels confident around this venue. If the weather gets up, that alone could push him to a big week given his experience level. Don’t be shocked if you see him pop up inside the top 20 at some point this week.

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