Expert Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week for The BMW Championship

The PGA heads into its second-to-last event of the season this week. The BMW Championship is played at a rotating group of courses, and this year it will be visiting Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland for the first time ever. The venue was designed in 1991 by Tom Fazio, who has also helped on PGA regular courses like Congaree and Quail Hollow. Caves Valley is a longer par 72 over 7,500 yards. It is set in the suburbs of Baltimore and carries through some tree and parkland area, challenging players with tougher tee shots and longer par 4’s. With a smaller field this week and it being a no-cut event, it should make it a bit interesting for our daily fantasy golf picks, and finding the right DFS golf on DraftKings and FanDuel is imperative, as always.

Players will be utilizing their driver a ton, as there are four par par 5’s, six par 4’s over 450 yards and not a lot of doglegs. Expect solid drivers of the ball to have an advantage here, especially if conditions stay dry and the greens get quick. Do not expect U.S. Open conditions, but the 70-man, no-cut field could be in for much higher scoring than last week.

Caves Valley Golf Club Stats and Info

Par 72, 7,540 yards; features bentgrass greens that are advertised as “fast” by course managers.
For this event, the rough was grown out a bit and a couple of new tee boxes were created to make holes longer; expect a tougher setup than last week, especially with hot weather.
Six par 4’s measure in over 450 yards, so long-approach proximity and good driving should be the emphasis.

Putting Splits

The green types are pure bentgrass, so good comparables include Augusta National and TPC Deere Run. Use caution with these in fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patrick Cantlay: +23 strokes on bentgrass, +1 strokes on all other surfaces
2. Jason Kokrak: +23 on bentgrass, +13 on all other surfaces
3. Cameron Davis: +18 on bentgrass, -1 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Joaquin Niemann: +3 on bentgrass, +22 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: -10 on bentgrass, +25 on all other surfaces
3. Scottie Scheffler: -13 on bentgrass, +3 on all other surfaces

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

Bryson DeChambeau: Grades: A Values: C

DeChambeau had an interesting beginning to his playoff run. He finished 31st, but he made 25 birdies for the week and gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three of the four rounds. The birdie rate last week was phenomenal for a player who was well under $10,000 on DraftKings, and DeChambeau is a solid bargain here. Despite the up-and-down results of late, he ranks seventh in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds and is fifth in DraftKings points over that same period, yet he is just the 12th-most expensive player on the DraftKings slate.

The Awesemo model certainly has him perking as a great value. DeChambeau has the fifth-highest projected point total for this week but also has the best value score of any player $9,000 or higher. Surprisingly enough, it was his putter that let him down last week (he lost 2.8 strokes putting), but the warmer conditions set for Caves Valley could mean much faster greens, and DeChambeau ranks fourth in strokes gained putting on fast greens over the last 50 rounds. The prices on DeChambeau here are a gift, and he should be a core piece when making lineups.

The Stats:

Has gained six strokes or more off the tee and on approach over his last two starts.
Has made 49 birdies over his last two starts and ranks second in birdies or better over the last 24 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.4%

Latest PGA DFS Content

Charley Hoffman: Grades: C, Values: B

Hoffman is not up there with the elites in terms of his daily fantasy golf point projections this week, but he does stand out in the projections, nonetheless. He has the best points projection of anyone $7,900 or more this week, which is a big surprise considering the overall elite nature of this field. From a value standpoint, he is also a screaming buy; Hoffman has the best value score in the Awesemo model of anyone $7,000 or higher and yet is still projecting with only around 10% ownership.

Hoffman is coming off a nice week at the Northern Trust where he gained 3.9 strokes on approach and finished 21st, his best result since the Charles Schwab in May. The return to form here should be viewed very favorably, as Hoffman was striking his approaches better than almost anyone in early summer. He ranks 29th in the FedEx Cup standings, and the motivation will certainly be there on Sunday regardless of where he is sitting. Hoffman is an elite value based on both his daily fantasy golf model projection and the form he showed last week.

The Stats:

Gained over two strokes on approach in each of the last two rounds at Liberty National.
Ranks second in strokes gained on approach and eighth in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.9%

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Brooks Koepka

Koepka had a brutal end to his tournament on Monday, as he could only manage a 74 in the final round, which left him in 27th place for the event. Despite the poor finish, though, there are still some reasons for optimism here. Koepka made 21 birdies for the week (which made him useful on DraftKings), and he was in decent shape until the final round on Monday. With such a short turnaround, there is at least some narrative here that suggests players who were not in the middle of it on Monday may be a little better rested.

Koepka also gained over three strokes off the tee last week, and when his driver is working, the rest of his game usually is not that far off. The longer course this week should play to the big hitters, and Koepka needs a big week at this point to have any shot at a top-five spot for East Lake. With some negative sentiment after his poor finish and an ownership projection sitting around just 10% (with room to perhaps drop), Koepka sets up as a nice GPP pivot from an upper tier that could see a couple of other players go heavily owned.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.3%

DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Keegan Bradley ($7,700)

Bradley played well last week and could keep that momentum going into this second playoff event. He is strong off the tee (ranked 18th in off the tee over the last 50 rounds) and comes into this field ranked fourth in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds. Despite coming off a week where he landed 18 birdies and an eagle, his ownership projection is still hovering around 7%, making him a good pivot play.

Max Homa ($6,400)

Homa battled to make the cut after an opening 74 last week. He only finished 47th, but that was enough to keep him in 30th place in the FedEx Cup standings. Homa gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts and likely only needs his putter to heat up again to start competing. He has done well on longer golf courses like Quail Hollow and Riviera, so Caves Valley should suit him.

Kevin Streelman ($7,200)

Streelman looks to have regained some of his mid-summer form of late. He finished seventh at the Wyndham a couple of weeks ago and made 22 birdies last week at the Northern Trust (albeit only finished 64th). He is not long off the tee, but he is consistent and has gained over two strokes on approach in his last two starts. The high birdie rate he has been showing of late is very appealing for a player in this low-$7,000 range.

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