⛳ The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for The Honda Classic

The PGA Tour moves on to its final stop on the Florida swing this week as it visits one of the toughest tracks on tour in PGA National. The Honda Classic has seen its spot on the calendar move a couple of times over the past few years, and this post-Players edition isn’t drawing many big names. There are only two players ranked in the top-20 in the OWGR’s in Daniel Berger and Sungjae Im. The lack of star names isn’t great for the sponsors, but for daily fantasy golf picks purposes it will definitely make for an interesting week in what is shaping up to be a wide-open event. With the parity likely to run throughout the tournament, the question is: who should we target for DraftKings and FanDuel?

One reason why this event often delivers excitement, regardless of the field, is the course. PGA National is a water-laden mine trap that can make TPC Sawgrass look timid at times. It is a Jack Nicklaus design that brings water into play on 15 of the 18 holes and features a menacing closing stretch, with the famous “Bear Trap” (holes 15 through 17) being the main attraction for viewers. The 7,125-yard par 5 stresses both approach games and short games, as players don’t typically hit a ton of greens or fairways here given the penalizing water. Look for strokes gained on approach and around the green to matter this week over all else.

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PGA National Stats and Info

  • Greens-in-regulation percentages are very low at PGA National, typically 5 to 8% lower for the field than an average tour stop. Water and longer approaches into many par 3’s and 4’s cause higher rates of misses.
  • Driving distance is also de-emphasized at PGA National, as the average for the week has typically come in 8 to 10 yards under tour average. Players are often forced to club down to avoid water or due to doglegs.
  • The last two winners here gained 6.0 strokes or more on their approaches for the week, and each of the last five winners gained strokes around the green.

Putting Splits

The greens at TPC Sawgrass are TifEagle Bermuda. The Bermuda grass tends to be more dormant here this time of year, but we’ll still be using Bermuda putting splits for our guide. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your daily fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patton Kizzire: +39 strokes on Bermudagrass, +1 on all other surfaces
2. Harry Higgs: +9 on Bermudagrass, -4 on all other surfaces
3. Russell Henley: +8 on Bermudagrass, -19 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Maverick McNealy: -1 on Bermudagrass, +30 on all other surfaces
2. Doug Ghim: -22 on Bermudagrass, +8 on all other surfaces
3. Kevin Streelman: +13 on Bermudagrass, -15 on all other surfaces


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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Joaquin Niemann: Grades: A+ Values: C, B

Niemann comes into this event having made 13 straight cuts on tour. He has found a different gear to his game over the last year, and it has been showing up in the results on a consistent basis. A playoff loser at the season opener in Maui, he has gained strokes both on approach and off the tee in eight of his last nine starts. His weakness still comes from an inconsistent around-the-green game — he lost strokes around the green at Sawgrass last week — but he has become more consistent in that area of play, gaining strokes around the green in four of his five PGA starts in 2021.

For daily fantasy play this week, Niemann doesn’t carry the course history at PGA National that Berger does, and Berger is just $400 more expensive. But since Berger is battling a rib issue, taking the discount on the in-form Niemann feels like headier play. His ability to find a ton of fairways and always be among the leaders in proximity is going to eventually serve him well at PGA National, and he rates out as only one of three players in the Awesemo model this week with a win probability of over 5%. Niemann is a solid upper-tier target and good anchor play in this weaker field.

The Stats:

  • Third in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds; has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in eight of last nine starts.
  • Riding a 13-event made cut streak with three finishes of third or better attached; also ranks fifth in par-4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 22.9% | FanDuel: 38.5%

Talor Gooch: Grades: A, Values: B

Gooch is a talented young player who has hit his stride over the past six months. While he used to be known as a predominantly ball-striking-oriented player, he comes into this event ranked seventh in strokes gained with short game over the last 50 rounds. Last week he gained 4.0 strokes putting, 3.6 strokes around the green and 6.8 strokes on his approaches. The great weak was only waylaid by a few bad drives or else he may have challenged the 13-under winning score.

With an in-form short game and an iron game that can catch fire at times, Gooch could see this week as a great shot at grabbing his first PGA win. PGA National sets up perfectly for his strengths, and it’s thus worth noting that this week will be the fourth time already that he’s playing PGA National as a pro. The last two seasons he finished 20th and 38th while gaining 3.3 and 6.5 strokes on approaches, respectively. Gooch also rates out well in the Awesemo model, as he carries the third-best value score of anyone above $9,000 on DraftKings and the sixth-best overall points projection. Even with the price increase, he projects out as a great mid-tier target.

The Stats:

  • Gained 6.8 strokes on his approaches last week alone, his best week with the irons since 2019.
  • Gained 3.6 strokes around the green last week and has gained strokes around the green in nine of last 12 starts on PGA; finished 20th and 38th at this event the last two years.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.7% | FanDuel: 14.3%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Dylan Frittelli

After a solid week at the Players that saw him finish 22nd and gain 4.2 strokes on his approaches, I would have figured that Frittelli might have gained a bit more heat this week in terms of his popularity. He seems to be staying somewhat under the radar, though, as his current DraftKings ownership projection has him coming in under 5% owned. While he had missed three cuts in a row prior to the Players, we know that he can light it up when his approach game starts to fire. He finished a surprise fifth at the Masters last fall and has gained strokes around the green in eight of his last nine starts on tour.

There is no doubt Frittelli will need his irons to find success around PGA National, but this year will also be his fourth year playing the venue, so familiarity should help. He finished 11th in his debut here in 2017 and gained 3.3 on his approaches that year alone. I would expect a repeat of that kind of ball striking may even lead to a bigger week this year. Frittelli makes for a solid GPP target with lots of upside in this weaker field.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 4.5%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Matt Wallace ($8,400)

Wallace didn’t qualify for the Players last week, but he did play at the equally tough Bay Hill two weeks ago and gutted out a strong 18th in a performance that saw him gain strokes throughout the bag. He is a solid grinder who finished 20th here in 2019 and has the type of short game that may let him hang around the leaderboard into the weekend in this weaker field.

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Harry Higgs ($7,100)

Higgs has been showcasing some solid form with his irons of late, as he’s gained strokes on his approaches in seven straight starts. That consistency finally paid off with a nice week at TPC Sawgrass, where he finished 29th. He’s shown some confidence with the putter of late, which makes him dangerous in these weaker fields, especially at lower prices.

Roger Sloan ($6,500)

Sloan’s last start saw him finish 22nd in Puerto Rico against a decent field and put up some solid proximity stats in doing so. Prior to that he had gained strokes on his approaches in three straight starts and comes in having also made cuts in three of his last four starts on tour. He finished 30th in his first visit here in 2019 and makes for a decent pay-down daily fantasy golf pick considering his solid ball-striking form.


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