Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for The Players Championship on DraftKings

The first big event of 2021 is here as The Players Championship makes its triumphant return to the PGA schedule. The Players may not be a major, but the field is the same (or better) than the biggest events on the PGA calendar, which means BIG contests on DraftKings and FanDuel and plenty of solid daily fantasy golf picks options. The only top-50 players who aren’t in the field this week are out due to injury (Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods), and this season marks the second year in a row that the event will be played in March.

The Players Championship will again be held at TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye-designed venue that was created specifically for this event back in 1981. The course plays as a traditional par 72 around 7,200 7,300 yards depending on setup. While the course isn’t overly long, the variance at Sawgrass tends to be massive. Water comes into play on nearly hole, and the small greens and stadium-like setting on several holes give it a claustrophobic feel where small misses can become big numbers. The emphasis here is more on execution and course management than pure power, so it’s not shocking that the event has seen a wide swatch of winners. While power may not be necessary, great ball striking is still needed, along with a solid around-the-green game to counteract the tricky greens and traps that players will inevitably find their way into at some point this week.

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TPC Sawgrass Stats and Info

Driving distance here is typically five to seven yards less than the average tour stop. Sawgrass has plenty of forced layup holes where players will need to club down to avoid water or take trouble out of play. As a result, driving accuracy numbers tend to be quite high.
The forced layups also lead to more long approaches, as the most popular basket of distance this week is from over 200 yards.
Winners at TPC Sawgrass also tend to excel around the greens. Scrambling here is tough, and the field typically only gets up and down around 50 to 55% of the time. The last four winners here have gained 1.5 strokes or more around the green for the week of their win.

Putting Splits

The greens at The Players Championship are TifEagle Bermuda. The Bermudagrass tends to be more dormant here this time of year, but we will still be using Bermuda putting splits for our guide. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +44 strokes on Bermudagrass, +18 on all other surfaces
2. Sam Burns: +44 on Bermudagrass, +15 on all other surfaces
3. Charley Hoffman: +18 on Bermudagrass, -12 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Jason Kokrak: -4 on Bermudagrass, +19 on all other surfaces
2. Adam Scott: -8.5 on Bermudagrass, +28 on all other surfaces
3. Justin Thomas: +1 on Bermudagrass, +10 on all other surfaces

Latest PGA DFS Content

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Bryson DeChambeau: Grades: A+, Values: A

DeChambeau has found himself right in the sweet spot this week for daily fantasy purposes. He did the right thing after his Arnold Palmer win last week by shouting out the fantasy players, but his win also has seemed to catch the golf world by surprise. He is only the seventh-highest-ranked golfer this week in DraftKings salary structure and that is not likely to go unnoticed by the masses. DeChambeau is already projecting as Awesemo’s highest-owned golfer on DraftKings for the week, and it’s for good reason. On top of gaining 11.2 strokes ball striking last week (+7.1 off the tee), DeChambeau has started to showcase the kind of comfort in his new body/approach that could make him a danger at this finicky venue.

While he is going to need to be sharper around the green and on the greens than he was last week, let’s not forget that the last winner at Sawgrass — Rory McIlroy in 2019 — ranked third in strokes gained off the tee here last year and just 78th in driving accuracy. This will be DeChambeau’s third Players start, and it’s worth noting that he gained a solid 5.3 strokes off the tee here in 2019 — on his way to a 20th-place finish — so perhaps he has already figured out ways to belt his way around this course. On Awesemo he rates out as a great value given he’s second in the projections this week, but he is only the seventh-most expensive golfer on the slate on DraftKings.

The Stats:

First in strokes gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds. Gained 5.3 strokes off the tee here in 2018 and has improved his finishing spot at Sawgrass in each of his last two visits.
Carries the second-best value score on Awesemo of any golfer above $9,000 this week on DraftKings and also projects for the second-best win percentage in the model.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 32.5%| FanDuel: 18.5%

Tyrrell Hatton: Grades: A, Values: A

Hatton made this list last week when he was salaried at $10,000. He couldn’t quiet find the right gear to get himself into contention at Bay Hill on Sunday but had a solid week nonetheless, posting a 21st-place finish. People may have been expecting more from Hatton last week, but his stats bear out that he’s fine form. He gained 10.1 strokes tee to green for the week and gained multiple strokes in every major area but on the greens, where he lost 4.9 strokes putting. If we were talking about a more inconsistent player, then the regression on the greens might be an issue. But Hatton had gained strokes putting in seven straight PGA events prior to last week, so it’s not something I would read much into.

From a setup perspective, Hatton fits Sawgrass perfectly given his ability to find a ton of fairways off the tee and hammer plenty of pins with his irons. He ranks 10th in the field in strokes gained on approach and comes in as just the 18th-most expensive player on DraftKings this week despite being the seventh-ranked golfer in the world. On Awesemo he has the best value score of any player $8,000 or higher and also has the best points projection of anyone $9,000 or lower. Despite some lackluster course history, Hatton rates as a great DFS target this week and a perfect complement to whichever high-priced stud you choose to target first.

The Stats:

Has gained 2.0 or more strokes on his approaches in each of his last six PGA starts.
Ranks fifth in strokes gained on approach and fourth in strokes gained ball striking over the last 24 rounds of play.
Ranks third in proximity from over 200 yards over the last 50 and last 24 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 21.7%| FanDuel: 13.7%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Chris Kirk

There are a few players I really like as pivots in the low-$7,000 range on DraftKings this week. A couple of them I will mention below, but Kirk stands out to me the most. He has landed finishes of 16th or better in four of his last five starts on tour and has looked relaxed and laser-focused after a season-opening second-place finish at the Sony Open gained him full status back on tour. Kirk has a nice story given the off-the-course stuff he has dealt with over the last couple of seasons, but his game is really trending so that he’s become far more than just a nice narrative play. Kirk has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his last two starts and has showcased an elite around-the-green game of late, gaining strokes on the field around the green in eight of his last nine starts. That kind of elite scrambling is needed at Sawgrass where each of the last four winners gained at least 1.5 strokes around the green for the week. Kirk also has the kind of experience we desire here, as he’s played The Players seven times prior and has never missed the cut — and even went off in the final group on Sunday back in 2015. At $7,000 on DraftKings, he is the kind of veteran I like targeting here ,and he could bring sub-5% ownership with him this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 3.2%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,700)

Grillo may push towards that 5% ownership mark when all is said and done, but for his price I would still consider him if he reached double digits. He has looked sharper over his last couple of starts and started to heat up his irons last week, gaining 7.1 strokes combined off the tee and on approach. His putting has also been less terrible than usual this season. Grillo has made the cut Sawgrass three years running and was 11th in 2017.

Branden Grace ($7,000)

I have featured Grace here at least once over the last few events, and he feels like a perfect target entering this week’s big event. He is playing with house money after winning the Puerto Rico Open a couple weeks back and hit his irons well at the Arnold Palmer, gaining 2.3 strokes on approach. He has made six of his last seven cuts on tour, has tons of confidence and has won on a Pete Dye course before at Hilton Head. I still expect Grace’s ownership to be extremely low despite the great run he is on.

Ian Poulter ($7,100)

Poulter is trending towards being 2% owned or less in GPPs this week, which puts him in a good spot as a pivot play. He made his first U.S start of 2021 at Bay Hill last week and ended up 26th, which was a small improvement over his 35th in Puerto Rico. Poulter had been showing decent form in a couple of Euro starts as well and has terrific course experience to lean on here, having played here 11 times previous and finishing second in 2017 and 11th in 2018.

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