Daily Fantasy Golf Picks The Valero Texas Open on DraftKings & FanDuel

The PGA is only one week away from its first major of 2021, which feels crazy to say considering the back end of 2020 squeezed three major championships into a three-month span. The Masters is coming up, but before that there is one more warmup event on the horizon. The Valero Texas Open returns to the PGA schedule this week after being one of the handful events canceled last year due to COVID. This event used to take place two weeks before Augusta, but it has moved up into the on-deck spot. DraftKings and FanDuel are still offering enticing contests, and with the help of the Awesemo expert rankings and projections, we’ve pinpointed some of the best daily fantasy golf picks for this week.

The event has taken place at TPC San Antonio, a Greg Norman course design, for over a decade and is one of the more underrated venues on tour in many ways. The venue allows scoring — as evidenced by the fact Corey Conners got to -20 last year — but also puts pressure on the players with lots of demanding approaches. The par-72, 7,435-yard venue still ranked as the 12th toughest on tour in 2019 and doesn’t present the players with many pure scoring holes, as even its par 5’s tend to play tougher than most (two of them come in at over 600 yards). This course is all about ball striking, and it’s no coincidence that the past three winners here have gained seven strokes or more on their approaches and 11 strokes or more tee to green for the weeks of their wins. While it sounds over-simplified, make sure to target the guys capable of going nuclear with the irons as much as possible when making selections.

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Stats and Info

This venue features some of the toughest to hit greens on tour, with a greens-in-regulation rate that typically falls between 52 and 58% most years, well below tour average.
It is more of a driver-heavy course, with average driving distance typically falling a couple yards above the tour average; fairways are extremely hard to hit, with driving accuracy numbers being 5 to 10% lower than average most seasons.
It features atypical par 5’s, as only two of the four par 5’s on the course rank in the top five easiest holes to score on.

Putting Splits

The greens at Austin Country Club are TifEagle Bermuda. Bermuda grass tends to be more dormant here this time of year, but Bermuda putting splits will still be the guide. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patton Kizzire: +42 strokes on Bermudagrass, 1 on all other surfaces
2. Charley Hoffman: +19 on Bermudagrass, -12 on all other surfaces
3. Cameron Davis: +9 on Bermudagrass, -11 on all other surfaces
* + equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Doug Ghim: -26 on Bermudagrass, +8 on all other surfaces
2. Gary Woodland: -8 on Bermudagrass, +4 on all other surfaces
3. Abraham Ancer: -3 on Bermudagrass, +17 on all other surfaces

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Tony Finau: Grades: A Values: C, B

Finau comes in with the highest point projection of the week in the Awesemo model and the only player to receive an A in his score ranking as well. Given the weak field, maybe it shouldn’t be shocking, but at the same time, considering he’s projected with 3.0 points more than the second-best player in the field, maybe he deserves more notice. Finau is coming off a poor couple of starts, as he missed the cut at the Players and then got ousted quickly from his pod at the Match Play. It is not worth reading too much into those starts, though, as both Sawgrass and Austin CC are semi-claustrophobic Dye designs that don’t necessarily mesh well with Finau’s outright power and shot-making ability.

This week’s course has much more openness to it and will allow players to hit driver quite often. Finau finished just 61st here in 2019 but was fabulous back in 2017 when he gained 11.3 strokes tee to green for the week in a third-place finish. He is the most expensive golfer on the slate and is only projecting as around the fifth-highest owned golfer in daily fantasy golf on DraftKings, which seems low based on the projections and overall weakness of this field. Going overweight here may be a bit contrarian this week.

The Stats:

Third at TPC San Antonio back in 2017; playing event for fourth time in his career and has never missed cut here
Three top-fives over his last six starts on tour; has gained 5.5 or more strokes tee to green for the week in four of his last five starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.1% | FanDuel: 39.1%

Chris Kirk: Grades: A, Values: B

Kirk has had a very strong start to 2021. He has finished inside the top-25 in five of seven starts and recorded two-10s on the year, including a runner-up finish at the Sony Open back in January. That finish clearly launched Kirk’s confidence, as it was needed for him just to regain his tour card. Since then he has hardly slowed down either and comes in having gained strokes off the tee and on his approaches in four of his last five starts. While he’s not a long hitter, Kirk’s off-tee game has taken a step up this year, and he also has some good course history to fall back on this week. Kirk has played Valero six times in his career (all at TPC San Antonio) and has finished inside the top-15 on three of those occasions.

From a model perspective, he has the best points projection of anyone under $9,000 on DraftKings and carries the second-best value score of anyone in the $8,000 range. Projected with only slightly above-average ownership, he shapes out as someone to trust here given the under-$9,000 price tag and burgeoning form.

The Stats:

Ranked sixth in strokes gained tee to green stats and 4th in strokes gained around the green stats over the last 24 rounds
Has gained 4.5 or more strokes tee to green in six of last seven starts; eighth at the Valero in 2018 where he gained 11.3 strokes tee to green

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.2% | 14.6%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Sam Ryder

Ryder will carry some ownership this week, but it’s projected to be less than 10%. This is surprising considering the form he has shown over his last few events. Ryder is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes and had one of the best rounds of the week in Puntacana last week when his Sunday 67 — in tough conditions — vaulted him up to second place. Ryder’s tee-to-green game has looked magnificent of late, particularly his approaches, with which he gained five strokes with at the Honda (eighth). That should set him up for success at TPC San Antonio, where pure ball strikers have always been able to find success thanks to the demanding layout that presents players with lots of tough approaches.

Ryder also has some experience to fall back on here, as he’s played the Valero each of the past two seasons. It’s also worth noting that the last six winners here had all made the cut at this event in the previous year it was held. Ryder’s 42nd- and 36th-place finishes here may not jump off the page, but he gained 4.6 and 5.4 strokes on his approaches in those finishes, so clearly something about this layout caught his eye. He is being discounted with sub-10% ownership and makes for a nice sub-$7,500 targets on DraftKings this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.4%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

This section targets players who should ultimately end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. The goal is to find boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Danny Willet ($7,700)

Willet got himself into contention last week in Corales (eighth) where he gained 9.4 strokes total for the week. He can grind it out in tough conditions and has looked solid in his last two PGA starts. From a talent perspective, he makes for a nice pivot in this range and is projecting at well under 5% ownership.

Greyson Sigg ($6,800)

Sigg is a talented Korn Ferry Tour player who has flashed lots of ability at that level and likely won’t be intimidated by this weaker field. He ranks 11th in driving accuracy, sixth in greens in regulation and has four top-10s in his last six starts on the KF Tour. He will likely have almost no ownership here.

Roger Sloan ($6,500)

Sloan has been a fringe PGA Tour player for a while but is starting to flash more serious form of late. He is riding three straight top-25s and gained 5.7 strokes on approach at the Honda a couple of weeks ago. He is another player who should come in around 5% ownership at best in GPPs.

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