Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

We are only a few weeks away from the first major of the season, but before we get there, this week presents us with a unique opportunity for fantasy. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is here, and it brings us a different take on our daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings. Gone are the placing and birdie points we usually rely on. Instead, we need players to advance from their pods and get us match/hole win points. This week the scoring relies on how far players advance in the round robin and bracket-style event, so diving into pod matchups will be key.

From a daily fantasy perspective, it will also be important to create your lineups in the optimal fashion by not overloading your players in one pod or bracket of the draw. Ultimately you want to give yourself a chance at having four players reach the final four positions in the tournament, so make sure you’re filling out rosters accordingly. As for the venue, Austin Country Club will be the host. It’s a shorter par 71 that plays around 7,000 yards and was designed by Pete Dye. The course has a nice blend of scoring holes and a few challenging ones where par will likely win the day.

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Austin Country Club Stats and Info

Par 71, 7,108 yards; venue was designed by Pete Dye and has been used as host for this event since 2016.
The venue is set up differently between the two nines, with the front being more rolling and tree-lined, while the back is flat in parklands and goes along the river.
Three par 5’s and one drivable par 4 on the course; players can score here without being super long, and the last event held here had Matt Kuchar and Kevin Kisner in the final.

Putting Splits

The greens at Austin Country Club are TifEagle Bermuda. Bermudagrass tends to be more dormant here this time of year, but we will still be using Bermuda putting splits for our guide. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your daily fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Kevin Na: +1 strokes on Bermudagrass, +30 on all other surfaces
2. Jason Kokrak: -7 on Bermudagrass, +19 on all other surfaces
3. Tony Finau: -3 on Bermudagrass, +20 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +49 on Bermudagrass, +18 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: +35 on Bermudagrass, -6 on all other surfaces
3. Carlos Ortiz: +22 on Bermudagrass, -6 on all other surfaces

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Jon Rahm

Rahm comes into this event simmering in form. He has finished inside the top 10 in seven of his last eight Tour starts and is coming off a start at The Players where he finished in ninth for the week and gained 5.7 strokes ball striking. Rahm certainly is ready to break through and win a big WGC event. While he hasn’t yet ascended to the winner’s column in 2021, he is playing some of the most consistent golf of his life. Rahm ranks No. 1 in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds and hasn’t lost strokes off the tee in 25 straight events, which itself is a modern marvel considering how inaccurate the longer hitters are off the tee these days.

From a match-play perspective, this will be Rahm’s fourth time playing the event, and he reached the final (where he lost to Dustin Johnson) in 2017. Just to put the cherry on top, Rahm also has a more-than-solid draw against the 24th-seeded Ryan Palmer and the 38th-seeded Shane Lowry, two players with less than extensive match-play records/history and two players who also historically have trouble on short putts. Rahm ranks out third in the Awesemo points projections this week but also has the best value score of anyone priced $10,000 or more. He is a nice anchor play this week.

The Stats:

Second in WGC Match Play Championship in 2017; finished inside the top 10 in five of last seven starts on PGA Tour.
First in strokes gained tee to green over last 50 rounds; gained over 2.0 strokes putting last time out on similar style greens at The Players.
In pod No. 3 this week with Munoz, Lowry and Palmer; winner will play winner from pod No. 14.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20%

Russell Henley

Henley comes into this event also playing very consistent golf. He has a couple of missed cuts in 2021, but he also finished 1th1 at the Sony Open and was third last week at the Honda. Henley has improved his all-around game immensely over the last year or so, and he has gained strokes putting in seven straight starts. His ball striking is still consistent as ever as well, and he bounced back well with his approaches last week, gaining 2.7 strokes on approach at the Honda after a poor week at The Players.

This will only be Henley’s third time playing this event, and while he only has a 3-5 record here, none of those five losses have come by more than a stroke. Henley is in a group with Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman and Victor Perez this week, and while Im will be a tough out, Henley could very well be the favorite against the other two. He ranks out very well on Awesemo too, as he has the seventh-best points projection and third-best value score despite being just $7,500 on DraftKings this week. Henley is a nice under choice here who definitely looks live to grab a pod win.

The Stats:

Fourth in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds of play.
Has gained strokes putting in seven straight starts and ranks 18th in the field in strokes gained putting over the last 50 rounds.
In pod No.16 this week with Leishman, Im and Perez; winner will play winner from pod No. 1.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Jason Day

Day is in a tough-looking group with Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Andy Sullivan. While Sullivan is likely going to get roasted here, the other three match up very evenly, and it will likely lead to pretty flat ownership on all of them in DFS. Surprisingly enough, Day was the only one of the big three who made the cut at The Players, and his 35th-place finish there may have been a little better than indicated. He gained 11.2 strokes tee to green — second most on the week — but lost an incredible 7.7 strokes on the greens. That type of catastrophe on the greens won’t happen often for Day, who has looked much more comfortable with his swing in 2021. A two-time winner of this event, his group is tough, but Day is also playing a couple of young players who may be going through their first slight blip of the season. He projects with sub-10% ownership and has a pretty solid projection here, making him a nice mid-range GPP play in a group where most will be looking to spread exposure. Day will likely avoid being heavy chalk this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.9%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600)

Bezuidenhout is an excellent short-game player and scrambler who should benefit from the shorter course. He has made last five cuts on the PGA Tour and is going to be a very tough out for higher seeds.

Si-Woo Kim ($7,300)

Kim’s group consists of Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood and Antoine Rozner. DeChambeau’s match-play record is only 1-3-1, and Kim is coming off a ninth at The Players where he gained 8.1 strokes on approach.

Erik van Rooyen ($6,400)

Van Rooyen is a complete pod play, as he’s drawn the possibly injured Daniel Berger, the also possibly injured Harris English and the in-mediocre-form Brendon Todd. Van Rooyen has played well in WGCs before and could find his way to a pod win in this weak group.

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