Expert Daily Fantasy Golf PGA Picks This Week WGC-FedEx St. Jude

The PGA season moves into its endgame portion this week, as there are just five events left on the docket for the 2020-21 season. The first of those five events will happen this week with the last WGC of the season. The WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational used to be a regular PGA Tour event that went off right before the U.S. Open every season. It was supersized, though, when the event was moved to August and became a WGC event. Like all WGCs, this event does not have a cutline, which means all of the 66-man field will get in four rounds of play. WGCs go off OWGR, so the top 50 players in the world all get invites, and only Jon Rahm (COVID) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are missing. The course this week is TPC Southwind, which plays just over 7,200 yards as a par 70. The venue played as the 14th hardest last season. It has plenty of water, doglegs off the tee and small Bermuda greens, which sets it up similarly to many of the tougher courses we see in the Florida stretch (Copperhead and PGA National) every season. Utilizing the DFS golf projections and getting to the best daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week might be tough, but it is doable.

TPC Southwind Stats and Info

Par 70; will play just over 7,200 at 7,233 yards with smaller Bermuda greens. Water comes into play on 11 holes both off the tee and around the greens.
Green in regulation and fairway accuracy are both extremely low here compared to most venues, with the field averaging well under 60% in both categories.
Justin Thomas gained 7.7 strokes on approach here last season and lost strokes putting for the week (but still won the event), so strong tee-to-green games are needed.

Putting Splits

Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Jason Kokrak: +3 strokes on Bermudagrass, +23 strokes on all other surfaces
Tommy Fleetwood: -2 on Bermudagrass, +11 on all other surfaces
Tyrrell Hatton: -3 on Bermudagrass, +6 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

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Positive Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +39 on Bermudagrass, +19 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: +28 on Bermudagrass, -7 on all other surfaces
3. Sergio Garcia: -4 on Bermudagrass, -44 on all other surfaces

Check out Jason Rouslin’s Top 5 PGA DFS Value Plays and other expert daily fantasy golf picks for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational this week.

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

Rory McIlroy: Grades: A, A | Values: D, D

McIlroy is coming off a spirited week at the Olympics where he came up just short in his quest for a medal (tied for fourth with six other people). He did not cash in at the majors this year, but this is the portion of the summer where he has been very successful over his career. Prior to the British Open, where he finished 46th, McIlroy had gained over four strokes on approach in four straight events.

McIlroy’s ball striking has been there of late, so he just needs a hot putting week. He has been a strong Bermuda putter throughout his career with wins at Wells Fargo, the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer, all courses that could act as good corollaries to TPC Southwind. He finished fourth here in 2019 (gaining 4.8 strokes putting) and does not have big ownership projections this week despite being just $10,000. He rates very well in the Awesemo model, with the second-highest points projection and best value score of anyone over $10,000 on DraftKings. He is a fine pay-up target in all GPP formats, where his projected output is not accompanied with high ownership projections.

The Stats:

Ranks fifth in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds; has gained four strokes or more on approach in each of his last four PGA starts.
Finished fourth at this event in 2019; ranks sixth in par-4 efficiency and fifth in par-4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards (last 50 rounds).

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.8%

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Webb Simpson: Grades: B DraftKings; B FanDuel | Values: C DraftKings; C FanDuel

Simpson ended a little slump in his last start, where he produced a 19th-place finish at the British Open. Prior to that, Simpson had missed two cuts in a row and had seen his DraftKings price slump to seasonal lows. Despite the comeback performance at the British Open, his salary still has not come up much and he remains underpriced at first glance at just $8,500. There are no strokes gained stats from the British Open, but Simpson certainly sets up well for TPC Southwind at first glance.

Simpson has finished second and 12th at this event the last two seasons and has had plenty of success on courses with smaller Bermuda greens that feature water, as he has wins at Hilton Head, Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass over his career. From a projections perspective, Simpson looks like the preferred value play here (by a longshot). He has the 11th-best points projections in the Awesemo model — despite being just the 20th-most expensive player on DraftKings — and has the best value score of anyone above $8,000. Simpson is still not projecting with overly chalky daily fantasy golf ownership either, so going back to him is a no-brainer.

The Stats:

Second and 12th at TPC Southwind the last two seasons; has gained the sixth-most strokes putting on Bermuda greens the last 50 rounds.
Ranks fifth in DraftKings points on Bermuda surfaces over the last 50 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.7%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Sergio Garcia

Garcia produced as a pivot play at the 3M Open, finishing 25th on a week where some of the chalk plays like Dustin Johnson ended up missing the cut entirely. Garcia gained 9.5 strokes ball striking alone in Minnesota but lost over seven strokes putting on the greens there.

Despite the good ball striking and the fact he has finished 25th or better in five straight starts, Garcia still has lower ownership projections here, which could even see him go under 10% owned in some contests. He does not have any high finishes at this event the last two seasons, but given how this venue tends to emphasize ball striking — Thomas here won despite losing strokes on the greens — it seems like a place where Garcia could flourish. With his long game tracking, taking a dive at $7,300 for Garcia in DraftKings daily fantasy golf GPPs seems like the proper move.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.3%

DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Sam Burns ($6,900)

Burns is one of the best Bermuda putters in the field, having gained 34 strokes putting on the surface over the last 50 rounds. He is under $7,000, making him a good play, but this venue also sets up very similarly to Copperhead (Valspar) where he won earlier this season.

Kevin Kisner ($6,800)

Kisner has been playing better of late. He had been in the midst of a dreadful year before two straight top-10 finishes. He slumped a bit at the British Open (72nd) but really only had one bad round. If his irons are firing, Kisner can compete on a course like TPC Southwind, and he has finished top 30 here the past two years.

Matt Jones ($6,200)

Jones is intriguing in the low-$6,000 range for GPP builds this week. He is quite consistent off the tee, which should keep him out of the worst of the trouble here. He picked up his second career win this season at PGA National (Honda Classic), which compares favorably to Southwind from a setup perspective. The recent form does not look great on paper, but Jones’ cheap price should have him on radars.

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