⛳ The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for the WGC Workday Championship

The first WGC of the new year is in our midst as the players head across the nation this week to partake in the newly formed WGC Workday. This event has gone by a couple of different names and once was a mainstay in Florida at the Doral venue before being shifted into Mexico for a four-year stint. This year the pandemic has forced PGA organizers to make the switch back to Florida at a venue that will be making its debut on Tour. It’s a fairly new track, so pinpointing the best daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel can be a bit tougher this week.

Concession is a Jack Nicklaus-designed course that plays as a long par 72 at around 7,474 yards. The four par 5’s on the course aren’t pushovers, as all play longer than 550 yards and the par-5 seventh hole is listed as the toughest handicap on the course. Water is strewn around the venue as well — like most Florida venues — and there will be tough tee balls on many holes where bigger hitters may have an easier time (and more flexibility) with some of the carries. We don’t have any data, so the course could play easier than expected, but I would think Concession will play similar to what we see at PGA National and Copperhead every year. That means lots of challenging shots where good off-tee and tee-to-green games can flourish.

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Concession Golf Club Stats and Info

  • Plays as a par 72; four par 5’s all over 550 yards in length with five par 4’s coming in between 400 and 450 yards.
  • Water is in play on 12 holes (at least), and the greens are smaller than average, around 6,000 square feet.
  • Bryson DeChambeau won the last big stroke-play event played here, which was the 2015 NCAA finals.

Putting Splits

The greens at Concession are Bermudagrass, and it will be the first time we have seen Bermuda in play since Phoenix. The greens are smaller, and Bermuda in Florida often plays faster than what we see on the West Coast. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +39 strokes on Bermudagrass, +18 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: +23 on Bermudagrass, -6 on all other surfaces
3. Brooks Koepka: +19 on Bermudagrass, -2 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patrick Reed: +17 on Bermudagrass, +39 on all other surfaces
2. Louis Oosthuizen: +7 on Bermudagrass, +23 on all other surfaces
3. Hideki Matsuyama: -31 on Bermudagrass, -13 on all other surfaces


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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Dustin Johnson: Grades: A Values: C

The elite field in this event means there is lots of talent to choose from in the lower regions on both major sites. For me, that means we should give some serious thought to the old “jam-‘em-in” strategy of playing the best players no matter the price. This week, Johnson certainly fits that best-player narrative, as the No. 1 player in the world is coming off another solid week at Riviera. While several of the other top players were falling back or missing the weekend entirely, Johnson looked solid for the most part in landing an 8th-place finish, gaining +4.0 strokes on his approaches while also gaining over two strokes around the greens.

From a model standpoint, Johnson rates out as the best overall play by quite a bit, as he’s projected for 4 more points than his closest competitor on the site. While we normally may see a dip in his value score, he really doesn’t rate out much worse in that category than most of the players $10,000 or above, meaning it doesn’t look like we’re getting much bang for our buck if we choose to pivot down to save money. A three-time winner of this event, Johnson is a perfect pay-up option that may not even get too chalky given all the big names in attendance.

The Stats:

  • First in strokes gained ball striking and tee to green over the last 50 rounds.
  • Has gained 3.5 or more strokes on his approaches in eight of last nine starts.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.2% | FanDuel: 38.9%

Scottie Scheffler: Grades: C, Values: C

Scheffler is coming off a 20th-place finish at Riviera, where he gained 3.5 strokes on his approaches and 3.0 around the green. He started the season off slow — he missed the cut at the American Express and Farmers — but has rebounded quickly over his past few starts and had his best week with his irons at Riviera since the Tour Championship in 2020. Scheffler is a consistent off-tee player who ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee in this field over the last 50 rounds. He could benefit from Concession’s longer par 5’s, which should demand good drives off the tee to ensure a shot at birdie.

The model at Awesemo clearly thinks his DraftKings salary is too low this week, as it gives him the best value score of anyone $8,000 and above. Furthermore, his point projections put him as the highest-projecting player of anyone under $8,900 on DraftKings. While he doesn’t have a ton of WGC experience, Scheffler has risen to the occasion in these elite-field events before, grabbing a fifth at the Tour Championship last year and a fourth at the Northern Trust playoff event. He’s a nice upper-tier daily fantasy golf pick this week.

The Stats:

  • Ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds.
  • Has gained 1.0 stroke or more on his approaches over the last four events.
  • Has only lost strokes around the green once over his last nine starts.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.6% | FanDuel: 8.3%

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Marc Leishman

Leishman comes into this event off of his third consecutive made cut of the season. Considering how he ended 2020, 2021 has been pretty solid, as he has gained over 1.2 strokes on his approaches in four straight starts. The off-tee play can still be a bit wild, but he has found his putter again and has gained 2.5 strokes or more putting in three straight starts. There’s definitely some risk involved, as Leishman has bailed out of these no-cut events before with last-place finishes, but he’s also accomplished the complete opposite, as he has two wins over his career (BMW Championship, CIMB Classic) at limited-field events.

Considering his ball striking has taken a turn upwards, he seems to be getting a little overlooked at under $7,500 on DraftKings. Anything under 10% owned in a limited-field event would make him a good target in GPPs, but if he’s closer to 5% — as we have him projected here — then he could help fill out lineups and make targeting your favorites near the top of the board a much easier task.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.8%

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DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,100)

Bezuidenhout has proven himself against legit PGA competition a couple of times now, finishing 20th at the last WGC (in Memphis) and 18th at the last Florida stop, Bay Hill. He won twice to close out 2020 and has improved his ball striking in 2021, with improved greens in regulation and accuracy over in Europe. He’s a nice pivot on DraftKings in the low-$7,000 range.

Rasmus Hojgaard ($6,700)

Hojgaard is a young, talented Danish player who has started 2021 off nicely over in Europe, grabbing a couple of top-10 finishes in his last two starts. It’s a big ask for him to come over into the States and compete, but this is also a player who can pile the birdies up with the best of them and ranks 13th in birdies per round over on the Euro Tour. At mid-single-digit ownership, he’s worth a spot in your GPP rotation.

Cameron Champ ($6,500)

The thinking here is pretty simple: You’re getting one of the most prolific drivers of the ball in a no-cut event on a course with four par 5’s for him to attack. We saw what Champ did at the Masters this year, becoming the GPP play to own even though he barely cracked the top 30 there. A little time off hopefully has him steadied, and his upside for this format is unmatched at this level of salary.


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