Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. There are 70 golfers in the field for the BMW Championship. While this is only the third time this venue has been used, the past should give a good indication of what it takes to be successful at Caves Valley Country Club.
PGA DFS Picks This Week: The BMW Championship
Recent Form
Only one golfer who did not tee it up last week will tee it up at the BMW: Louis Oosthuizen. If there is any indication that an elite golfer is due for a win, then Oosthuizen is that guy this week. He has three top-10s in the past 11 weeks, one of 13 golfers in the field to have three or more. There is only one golfer with more than three top-10s in the field this week, and that is Jon Rahm. Harris English, Xander Schauffele, Paul Casey and Kevin Na all have three top-10s, along with four top-25s. Only three golfers have five top-25s but do not have as many top-10s: Dustin Johnson, Jhonattan Vegas and Shane Lowry.
Negative Recent Form
Only four golfers in the 70-man field have not come in the top 25 in an event over the last 11 weeks: Lee Westwood, Talor Gooch, Carlos Ortiz and Matt Jones.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Jon Rahm ($11,500)
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Paul Casey
- Kevin Na
- Shane Lowry
Course History
While there is no course history for Caves Valley, golf courses can have many similarities. The top six comparable courses will serve as course history this week: Muirfield Village (The Memorial), Concession (WGC-Concession), Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo), TPC Boston ( Northern Trust) and Medinah Golf Course (BMW Championship).
Only two golfers out of the 70 have more than two top-10s in these six events: Scottie Scheffler and Rahm. Two others have five top-25s: Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. A couple of others to mention include Aaron Wise, who has only two starts in these six events and has two top-10s, and Jason Kokrak and Viktor Hovland have two top-10s and four top-25s in their starts.
Negative
Three golfers have at least four starts in these six events and have yet to crack the top 25: K.H. Lee, Cameron Champ and Harold Varner III.
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Xander Schauffele ($11,100)
- Rory McIlroy ($9,400)
- Viktor Hovland ($9,100)
- Scottie Scheffler ($8,900)
- Jason Kokrak ($7,800)
Strokes Gained
Last week I did a deep dive into the strokes gained data; since we only added one tournament last week, check out the stats here. For this week, check out the yearly ranks with just two tournaments left in the year.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Collin Morikawa
- Jon Rahm
- Patrick Cantlay
- Keegan Bradley
- Justin Thomas
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Paul Casey
- Rory McIlroy
- Sergio Garcia
- Brooks Koepka
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Jon Rahm
- Sergio Garcia
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Rory McIlroy
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Champ
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Brooks Koepka
Strokes Gained On Approach
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Justin Thomas
- Keegan Bradley
- Russell Henley
- Daniel Berger
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Jon Rahm
- Charley Hoffman
- Emiliano Grillo
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Kevin Na
- Si Woo Kim
- Jordan Spieth
- Patrick Cantlay
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Justin Thomas
- Tony Finau
- Webb Simpson
- Chris Kirk
- Shane Lowry
Strokes Gained Putting
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Jason Kokrak
- Cameron Smith
- Kevin Kisner
- Harris English
- Sam Burns
- Xander Schauffele
- Joaquin Niemann
- Cameron Tringale
- Patton Kizzire
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Collin Morikawa ($10,000)
- Brooks Koepka ($10,200)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
- Paul Casey ($8,200)
- Keegan Bradley ($7,700)
Old School Statistics
Greens in Regulation
- Jon Rahm
- Collin Morikawa
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Daniel Berger
- Keegan Bradley
- Emiliano Grillo
- Jason Kokrak
- Webb Simpson
- Sungjae Im
Driving Distance
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Champ
- Brooks Koepka
- Dustin Johnson
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
- Keith Mitchell
- Xander Schauffele
- Joaquin Niemann
Scrambling
- Patrick Cantlay
- Webb Simpson
- Cameron Tringale
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Russell Henley
- Abraham Ancer
- Brian Harman
- Harris English
- Chris Kirk
- Si Woo Kim
Total Putting
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Brian Harman
- Jason Kokrak
- Kevin Kisner
- Cameron Smith
- Xander Schauffele
- Harris English
- Sam Burns
- Cameron Tringale
- Mackenzie Hughes
Birdie or Better
- Jon Rahm
- Cameron Smith
- Sam Burns
- Jordan Spieth
- Collin Morikawa
- Xander Schauffele
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Harris English
- Viktor Hovland
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Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Bryson DeChambeau ($9,300)
- Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)
- Webb Simpson ($8,500)
- Sungjae Im ($8,000)
- Daniel Berger ($9,000)
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