Expert British Open PGA DFS Picks This Week for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, July 12, 2021

Especially during major championship week, when the best of the best are all playing, it is easy to get lost among the names. This article is built to help you key in on a few golfers that perform well in specific areas of focus. I will provide notes and a data sheet with to help with your PGA DFS picks for British Open lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf contests.

PGA DFS Picks This Week: The British Open

There will be 156 golfers teeing it up this week. There are also a ton of withdrawals this week due to COVID restrictions that are much harsher than that on the PGA Tour. It affected a great number of players, including Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson.

Recent Form

Three golfers head into the British Open playing some of their best golf over the last 11 weeks. Abraham Ancer is one of those golfers that has four top-10s over the time frame. Jon Rahm and Troy Merritt also check in with four (for these purposes, Rahm’s withdrawal a few tournaments back is counted as a win), while Merritt is coming off of a missed cut last week at the John Deere Classic. Ernie Els has been doing his best on the Champions Tour, earning a top-five in back-to-back starts. He also has not missed a cut in eight starts over these last 11 weeks. Neither has Darren Clarke, who is working on back-to-back top-12s and has made all seven cuts in tournaments he has played in. In total, 18 golfers with at least three starts have made the cut in each over the last 11 weeks.

Louis Oosthuizen, Collin Morikawa and Paul Casey have all teed it up five times in the last 11 weeks, earning three top-10s and making every cut. Morikawa, however, did not look like he had his A-game last week at the Scottish Open. He will be making his first start at the British Open here this year, something that has never fared well for first-timers. Lastly, Harris English, Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger are all 5-for-5 in cuts made and have two top-10s apiece. English is coming off a stretch of golf that includes a 14th, a third and a first.

Negative Recent Form

It has been an odd 11 weeks for Padraig Harrington, as he has teed it up seven times and missed five cuts. But his two made cuts were a fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship and an 18th at the Scottish Open. Given his price this week, that would easily be a quality return. Sebastian Munoz is in a very similar spot, coming in third twice in the last 11 weeks but also missing five cuts in nine appearances.

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

1. Jon Rahm ($11,300)
2. Louis Oosthuizen ($9,300)
3. Harris English ($7,300)

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Check out our PGA DFS First Look Strategy Show for the British Open with expert fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week, as well as PGA odds and betting picks like Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau.

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Recent Major Championship Form

It is pretty clear that no two majors are alike, but performances cannot be overruled. Some golfers can only get up for majors, while others cannot even sniff the weekend. This section will use the last nine majors, dating back to the 2019 PGA Championship. Thirty-two golfers have competed in all nine of them. Only three of them have made the weekend in all nine: Casey, Oosthuizen and Lowry. Just six others in the field that have at least three starts in the last nine majors and have made the cut in all of them: English, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, Stewart Cink, Charley Hoffman and Russell Henley. Hovland was on pace to at least make the weekend at the U.S. Open before getting sand in his eye and withdrawing.

When looking for an anchor for fantasy golf lineups in these majors, look no further than Rahm and Brooks Koepka, who each have six top-10s. Four other big names have five: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Tony Finau. Oosthuizen, Casey, Koepka and Rahm are joined by Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler as the only six golfers that have come in the top 10 in each of the last two majors.

When switching parameters to consistency rather than upside, only Schauffele and Rahm have more top-25s than Patrick Reed, who has seven in the last nine tries. Twelve others have at least four top-25s, including Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson and Spieth.

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Negative

While just qualifying for a major can be an accomplishment by itself, earning a paycheck at them is another battle. Matt Kuchar and Max Homa have both struggled mightily, missing the last six cuts. Marc Leishman, Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner leads a list of a few big names that have five missed cuts in the last nine majors.

Click here for the google sheet link.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Major Performance

1. Brooks Koepka ($10,700)
2. Paul Casey ($8,600)
3. Robert MacIntyre ($7,300)

British Open Form

Eleven golfers teeing it up this week have played in all nine showings of The British Open since the last time it was played here. Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson are among those 11, and each had a top-five in 2011. Only four golfers that have more than three starts at the British Open have made the cut each time: Henrik Stenson, Finau, Schauffele and Spieth. Spieth is 7-for-7 and has three top-10s. McIlroy had four straight top-fives at the British Open prior to the 2019 tournament, in which he missed the cut.

Sergio Garcia has struggled since 2017 at the British Open, with one missed cut and two poor finishes. Before that, he also was on a great run, including ninth place in 2011. Adam Scott has very similar results to Garcia, although his recent results have been slightly better with a couple of top-25s in 2017 and 2018, but he missed the cut in 2019.

Only four other golfers have at least three top-10s in at the British Open dating back to 2011: Leishman, Koepka, Kuchar and Zach Johnson. In more recent years Fowler has been able to figure it out, making six straight cuts and coming in the top 10 twice and top 30 five of those six times.

Negative

Believe it or not, the names that have missed the most cuts at the British Open are Ian Poulter and Padraig Harrington. Billy Horschel also has five missed cuts in only six tries. Tyrrell Hatton and Lowry both had four missed cuts heading into the 2019 campaign, where Lowry finished first and Hatton sixth. Hatton added a fifth place back in 2016, while Lowry added another top-10 back in 2014.

Brian Harman is another relatively popular name that has not figured it out over on this side of the pond, missing the cut in four of his five trips.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on British Open Performance

1. Rory McIlroy ($10,900)
2. Jordan Spieth ($9,700)
3. Rickie Fowler ($7,300)

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Strokes Gained

Winners Lowry, Spieth, McIlroy and Francesco Molinari each have a wonderful short game and smart all-around golf. Sure, brute force could get it done, but if recent history says anything, it is that players need every facet of their game to compete.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Jon Rahm
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Justin Thomas
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Paul Casey
8. Bryson DeChambeau
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Tony Finau
11. Rory McIlroy

Strokes Gained Off Tee

1. Bryson DeChambeau
2. Jon Rahm
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Bubba Watson
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Corey Conners
8. Brooks Koepka
9. Joaquin Niemann
10. Patrick Cantlay
11. Scottie Scheffler

Strokes Gained on Approach

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Paul Casey
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Russell Henley
5. Justin Thomas
6. Will Zalatoris
7. Jon Rahm
8. Corey Conners
9. Brooks Koepka
10. Tyrrell Hatton
11. Emiliano Grillo

Strokes Gained Around Green

1. Kevin Na
2. Danny Willett
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Tony Finau
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Louis Oosthuizen
9. Rickie Fowler
10. Webb Simpson
11. Justin Thomas

Strokes Gained Putting

1. Louis Oosthuizen
2. Brendon Todd
3. Zach Johnson
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
5. Jason Kokrak
6. Ian Poulter
7. Patrick Reed
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Brian Harman
10. Kevin Kisner
11. Cameron Smith

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

1. Justin Thomas ($9,600)
2. Patrick Cantlay ($8,900)
3. Patrick Reed ($8,800)

Old School Statistics

With not one clear statistical focus needed, this section will cover an array of ones that will be vital this week.

Greens in Regulation 

1. Jon Rahm
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Bryson DeChambeau
4. Emiliano Grillo
5. Sergio Garcia
6. Daniel Berger
7. Jason Kokrak
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Stewart Cink
11. Patrick Cantlay

Total Driving  

1. Jon Rahm
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Jason Kokrak
5. Paul Casey
6. Harris English
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Tyrrell Hatton
9. Corey Conners
10. Viktor Hovland

Around the Green Proximity 

1. Chris Kirk
2. Francesco Molinari
3. Paul Casey
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tony Finau
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
8. Justin Thomas
9. Cameron Tringale
10. Brian Harman

Scrambling

1. Webb Simpson
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Brian Harman
4. Harris English
5. Cameron Tringale
6. Ian Poulter
7. Louis Oosthuizen
8. Abraham Ancer
9. Russell Henley
10. Chris Kirk

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Putting Inside 10 feet

1. Louis Oosthuizen
2. Ian Poulter
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Webb Simpson
5. Cameron Smith
6. Kevin Kisner
7. Bryson DeChambeau
8. Zach Johnson
9. Billy Horschel
10. Jason Kokrak

Three-Putt Avoidance Over 25 feet

1. Cameron Tringale
2. Kevin Kisner
3. Jason Day
4. Chris Kirk
5. Jason Kokrak
6. Alex Noren
7. Branden Grace
8. Mackenzie Hughes
9. Justin Rose
10. Louis Oosthuizen
11. Matt Kuchar

Bogey Avoidance

1. Webb Simpson
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Chris Kirk
4. Cameron Tringale
5. Russell Henley
6. Emiliano Grillo
7. Jon Rahm
8. Abraham Ancer
9. Brian Harman
10. Daniel Berger

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

1. Xander Schauffele ($10,000)
2. Collin Morikawa ($9,200)
3. Cameron Tringale ($6,800)

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Check out our PGA DFS Top 5 Value Picks for the British Open with expert fantasy golf picks this week like Rickie Fowler and Patrick Reed for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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