Expert John Deere Classic PGA DFS Picks This Week for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, July 5, 2021

PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. If this is your first time visiting the article, this statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained, and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet with to help with your PGA DFS picks this week for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf contests in each category. This week the focus is on the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

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PGA DFS Picks This Week: The John Deere Classic

There will be 156 golfers teeing it up this week. With such a large number of golfers, there is plenty of recent data to go off of. Let’s break it down.

Recent Form

After a run of about six weeks where Garrick Higgo opened up discussion, he finally is taking a week off from the PGA Tour, Instead, the focus will be on Korn Ferry Tour graduate Mito Pereira. His first PGA Tour start as a member didn’t go quite as planned, missing the cut by a few strokes, but over the last 11 weeks his play has been nothing but superb. He has five top-10s in eight starts, including two wins. This should be a fine time for that success on the Korn Ferry Tour to translate onto the PGA Tour.

Troy Merritt had his best chance to win on Tour in five years but lost to Cameron Davis in the playoff. Davis, who is also scheduled to tee it up this week, may be apt to pass and head overseas instead to prepare for the Open Championship. Steve Stricker has put together three top-10s in just five starts over the last 11 weeks, albeit all of them came on the Champions Tour. In fact, outside of Merritt, nobody from the PGA Tour has more than two top-10s in the last 11 weeks.

Notables

There is a pack of 10 golfers with multiple top-10s in the past 11 weeks. Only Hank Lebioda is working off back-to-back top-10s, while Seamus Power is working off of four straight top-20s, including two top-10s. Others with multiple top-10s are Aaron Wise, Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Patton Kizzire, Jhonattan Vegas, Keith Mitchell and Doc Redman. Only Pereira and Alex Noren have five top-25s in the last 11 weeks. Noren has been very consistent, coming in the top 25 in five of seven starts, but he had not found the upside until last week where he finished fourth.

Russell Henley is another one worth noting, having come in the top 20 in his last two events. That does not indicate his true potential upside, as he has been around the top of the leaderboard at some point in each of the last two starts.

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Negative Recent Form

A few years ago, Michael Kim came into the week missing 11 of 16 cuts on the season and four straight before blitzing the field at TPC Deere Run. Grayson Murray and Sebastian Cappelen will look to take that same approach. Cappelen hasn’t found a weekend here in over 11 weeks, while Murray at least has made three cuts with top-25s mixed in with his seven missed cuts. They are the only two with seven missed cuts in the field. Ten others have six missed cuts, and seven of them don’t have a top-25 either: Dylan Frittelli, Peter Malnati, Chase Seiffert, Brian Gay, Rafael Campos and Ryan Brehm. 

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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

1. Russell Henley ($9,900)
2. Seamus Power ($9,000)
3. Troy Merritt ($8,700)

Course History at TPC Deere Run 

Some have named this the Zach Johnson classic since he has five top-10s at this event, including a win back in 2012. However, results since 2016 haven’t been as good, with only one top-five and two finishes outside the top 30. He hasn’t missed a cut, however, in all trips out to the Midwest since 2012. Only Stricker has played at least five times and made the cut in all of them. Twenty-two golfers in the field will be heading to the Midwest for the first time; among them are bigger names like Tom Lewis, Harry Higgs, Alex Noren and Erik van Rooyen. 

Johnson is the only golfer with five or more top-10s here since 2012, with Stricker, Ryan Moore and Johnson Wagner the only other golfers with three or more. Four others have finished in the top 10 at least twice since 2012: Andrew Landry, Scott Brown, Brian Harman and Kevin Streelman. 

Notables

Frittelli won in his first appearance here, but he is not in the best of form right now. Henley will be a popular name this week, having been around the leaderboard quite a lot lately and finishing second here last year. Mitchell has only teed it up here once and came in seventh, while Sam Ryder has come in the top 20 in his only two starts and has one top-10. The same can be said for Roger Sloan. 

Negative

D.J. Trahan has come to the John Deere Classic six times in the last eight years and has trunk slammed on Friday in all of them. Sean O’Hair and George McNeill have made one cut while missing a bunch more.

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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History

1. Brian Harman ($10,400)
2. Zach Johnson ($8,500)
3. Sam Ryder ($6,800)

Strokes Gained

Since weaker drivers have proven to be successful here, it’s clear that distance off the tee isn’t all that important. There will be a heavy emphasis on strokes gained on approach and putting this week. For those stats, I will provide the total strokes gained over the last 11 weeks for each.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

1. Aaron Wise
2. Doug Ghim
3. Daniel Berger
4. Russell Henley
5. Kevin Streelman
6. Si Woo Kim
7. Harold Varner III
8. Matthew NeSmith
9. Jhonattan Vegas
10. Luke List
11. Kyle Stanley
12. Sungjae Im
13. Brian Harman

Strokes Gained Off Tee

1. Jhonattan Vegas
2. Cameron Champ
3. Luke List
4. Sungjae Im
5. Charles Howell III
6. Keith Mitchell
7. Cameron Davis
8. Ryan Moore
9. Tom Lewis
10. Joseph Bramlett
11. Daniel Berger

Strokes Gained On Approach

1. Kyle Stanley (5.78)
2. Seamus Power (4.43)
3. Daniel Berger (4.07)
4. Kevin Streelman (4.02)
5. Scott Piercy (3.77)
6. Andrew Putnam (3.1)
7. Cameron Percy (3.06)
8. Russell Henley (3.04)
9. Martin Laird (3.04)
10. Aaron Wise (2.72)
11. Hank Lebioda (2.69)
12. Matthew NeSmith (2.56)
13. Doc Redman (2.53)

Strokes Gained Around Green

1. Fabian Gomez
2. Kevin Na
3. Seamus Power
4. Byeong Hun An
5. Dylan Frittelli
6. Si Woo Kim
7. Camilo Villegas
8. Robby Shelton
9. Brian Harman
10. Anirban Lahiri
11. Bill Haas

Strokes Gained Putting

1. Satoshi Kodaira (6.63)
2. Troy Merritt (6.58)
3. Hunter Mahan (6.29)
4. Patton Kizzire (4.13)
5. Adam Long (3.59)
6. Sepp Straka (3.57)
7. Rhein Gibson (3.48)
8. Hank Lebioda (3.35)
9. Zach Johnson (3.09)
10. Pat Perez (2.89)
11. Kevin Tway (2.61)

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

1. Daniel Berger ($11,100)
2. Patton Kizzire ($8,900)
3. Hank Lebioda ($8,400)

Old School Statistics

Incredibly, Frittelli won the John Deere Classic in 2019 by losing strokes on the approach, but he had one of the best short game weeks in recent memory. Gaining over 13 total for the week, he didn’t have to do much else to win. But look down the board a bit, and the rest of the top 10 is littered with golfers that had a good week with their approaches.

Total Driving 

1. Hudson Swafford
2. Sungjae Im
3. Martin Laird
4. Matthew NeSmith
5. Cameron Champ
6. Henrik Norlander
7. Scott Harrington
8. Daniel Berger
9. Kris Ventura
10. Jhonattan Vegas
11. Joseph Bramlett

Greens In Regulation 

1. Matthew NeSmith
2. Daniel Berger
3. Cameron Percy
4. Cameron Champ
5. Aaron Wise
6. Adam Schenk
7. Ben Taylor
8. Sungjae Im
9. Kyle Stanley
10. Roger Sloan
11. Seamus Power

Proximity 

1. Vaughn Taylor
2. Kyle Stanley
3. Russell Henley
4. Doug Ghim
5. Chez Reavie
6. Hank Lebioda
7. Cameron Percy
8. Jason Dufner
9. Brian Stuard
10. Rob Oppenheim

Birdie Or Better

1. Daniel Berger
2. Patton Kizzire
3. Cam Davis
4. Peter Malnati
5. Anirban Lahiri
6. Sungjae Im
7. Maverick McNealy
8. Harry Higgs
9. Doug Ghim
10. Sebastian Muñoz
11. Rory Sabbatini

Putting from 15-20 feet

1. Martin Laird
2. Rafael Campos
3. Zach Johnson
4. Aaron Baddeley
5. Alex Noren
6. Ryan Moore
7. Robby Shelton
8. Ryan Armour
9. Rafa Cabrera Bello
10. Patton Kizzire
11. Pat Perez

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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

1. Doug Ghim ($8,000)
2. Sungjae Im ($10,700)
3. Martin Laird ($7,000)

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