Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. There are 125 golfers in the field for the Northern Trust. While this is only the third time this venue has been used, the past should give a good indication of what it takes to be successful at Liberty National.
PGA DFS Picks This Week: The Northern Trust
Recent Form
The last six weeks have been somewhat of a microcosm of Collin Morikawa’s career — four top-fives, a win and 7-for-7 on made cuts. In fact, he has only missed four cuts in his entire career and has not missed one this calendar year. Paul Casey has had quite a good year as well, and lately he has piled on another four top-10s in the last 12 weeks. However, neither of them have form as good as Jon Rahm’s, with two wins and no finish worse than eighth since the PGA Championship (counting the withdrawal at the Memorial in which he had an insurmountable lead). They are the only three in the field with four top-10s since the first week of June. Thirteen others check in with three.
Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler and Seamus Power are three of those 13, and they are the only ones that add another two top-25s to their card. Jordan Spieth is the only golfer in the field with at least five starts to come in the top 25 in every one of those. Spieth also adds two runner-up finishes onto his card. Three others are 5-for-6: Shane Lowry, Sergio Garcia and Maverick McNealy. Lowry and Garcia have not found the top 10 in any of their six starts.
Negative Recent Form
This week there are only 10 golfers in the field that have not recorded a top-25 since June: Lee Westwood, Stewart Cink, Matt Jones, Matt Kuchar, Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, Tom Hoge, Matthew NeSmith, Peter Malnati and Brian Gay.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Jon Rahm ($11,500)
- Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
- Scottie Scheffler ($9,300)
- Paul Casey ($8,700)
- Seamus Power ($7,000)
Course History
Only in 2019 and 2013 were PGA Tour events held here. Twenty-two of the 125 golfers in the field this week have played it in both years. Adam Scott is the only golfer to come in the top five both times. Jason Kokrak is the closest to Scott, coming in 12th and ninth in his two rips, while Rory McIlroy and Spieth have the exact same history: 19th in 2013 and sixth in 2019.
Six others have made the cut each time: Phil Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman and Matt Jones.
Negative
Only two golfers have missed the cut twice: Scott Stallings and Pat Perez. Marc Leishman, Brian Harman, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Palmer, Brian Stuard, Russell Henley and Cameron Tringale have yet to come inside the top 50 in their two trips.
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Jordan Spieth ($10,800)
- Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
- Webb Simpson ($8,900)
- Adam Scott ($8,400)
- Jason Kokrak ($7,700)
Strokes Gained
Since there is not much course history to dive into, I will go a little deeper into strokes gained. I will provide the strokes gained numbers for the last 12 weeks, matching up with the recent form.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Jon Rahm (9.94/3.313 avg)
- Hideki Matsuyama (10.05/2.513 avg)
- Paul Casey (9.85/2.463 avg)
- Sergio Garcia (9.38/2.345 avg)
- Rory McIlroy (6.72/2.240 avg)
- Collin Morikawa (6.37/2.123 avg)
- Abraham Ancer (10.24/2.048 avg)
- Daniel Berger (7.87/1.968 avg)
- Talor Gooch (7.49/1.873 avg)
- Patrick Cantlay (7.33/1.833 avg)
Strokes Gained Off Tee
- Jon Rahm (3.46/1.153 avg)
- Abraham Ancer (5.17/1.034 avg)
- Sergio Garcia (4.78/0.956 avg)
- Brooks Koepka (4.48/0.896 avg)
- Bryson DeChambeau (5.3/0.883 avg)
- Keegan Bradley (4.15/0.830 avg)
- Collin Morikawa (4.01/0.802 avg)
- Patrick Cantlay (3.64/0.728 avg)
- Chez Reavie (5.67/0.709 avg)
- Kyle Stanley (4.95/0.707 avg)
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Hideki Matsuyama (10.3/1.717 avg)
- Jon Rahm (4.72/1.573 avg)
- Collin Morikawa (7.13/1.426 avg)
- Paul Casey (5.37/1.343 avg)
- Rory McIlroy (4.82/1.205 avg)
- Daniel Berger (5.8/1.160 avg)
- Keegan Bradley (5.5/1.100 avg)
- Abraham Ancer (5.22/1.044 avg)
- Brooks Koepka (4.82/0.964 avg)
- Patrick Cantlay (4.66/0.932 avg)
Strokes Gained Around Green
- Tyrrell Hatton (3.22/0.805 avg)
- Kevin Na (5.43/0.776 avg)
- Branden Grace (3.48/0.696 avg)
- Matt Kuchar (4.07/0.678 avg)
- Jon Rahm (1.85/0.617 avg)
- Si Woo Kim (4.98/0.553 avg)
- Shane Lowry (2.17/0.543 avg)
- Patrick Reed (4.21/0.526 avg)
- Ian Poulter (3.11/0.518 avg)
- Talor Gooch (2.49/0.498 avg)
- Jordan Spieth (2.48/0.496 avg)
Strokes Gained Putting
- Jon Rahm (3.2/1.067 avg)
- Hank Lebioda (5.68/0.947 avg)
- Adam Hadwin (7.22/0.903 avg)
- Kevin Kisner (6.91/0.864 avg)
- Ian Poulter (5.12/0.853 avg)
- Chesson Hadley (4.96/0.827 avg)
- Adam Scott (4.77/0.795 avg)
- Harris English (3.82/0.764 avg)
- Pat Perez (4.21/0.702 avg)
- Sam Burns (2.75/0.688 avg)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Dustin Johnson ($11,000)
- Harris English ($8,800)
- Sam Burns ($8,000)
- Ian Poulter ($7,700)
- Hank Lebioda ($6,300)
Old School Statistics
Greens in Regulation
- Jon Rahm
- Collin Morikawa
- Matthew NeSmith
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Seamus Power
- Daniel Berger
- Keegan Bradley
- Adam Schenk
- Emiliano Grillo
Around the Green Proximity
- Hank Lebioda
- Seamus Power
- Chris Kirk
- Kevin Na
- Brian Stuard
- Pat Perez
- Collin Morikawa
- Doug Ghim
- Paul Casey
- Tony Finau
Driving Distance
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Champ
- Brooks Koepka
- Dustin Johnson
- Matthew Wolff
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
- Wyndham Clark
- Keith Mitchell
Scrambling
- Patrick Cantlay
- Webb Simpson
- Seamus Power
- Hank Lebioda
- Cameron Tringale
- Ian Poulter
- Doug Ghim
- Abraham Ancer
- Russell Henley
- Brian Harman
Scrambling 10-20 Yards
- Webb Simpson
- Chris Kirk
- Cameron Tringale
- Branden Grace
- Patrick Reed
- Kevin Na
- Brendon Todd
- Pat Perez
- Harris English
- Paul Casey
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Putting 15-20 Feet
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Alex Noren
- Martin Laird
- Zach Johnson
- Brendon Todd
- Cameron Tringale
- Brandt Snedeker
- Harris English
- Pat Perez
- Matthew Wolff
Par 4 400-450 Yards
- Abraham Ancer
- Webb Simpson
- Patrick Cantlay
- Chris Kirk
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Emiliano Grillo
- Zach Johnson
- Matt Kuchar
- Brooks Koepka
- Russell Henley
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
- Patrick Reed ($8,600)
- Sungjae Im ($7,800)
- Cameron Tringale ($7,300)
- Charley Hoffman ($7,000)
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