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Expert WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, August 2, 2021

Jason Rouslin

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Brooks Koepka had his usual reaction when he was asked about his upcoming "match" with bitter rival, Bryson DeChambeau

Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all of the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. This week the PGA Tour takes a break from the massive fields and brutal cut sweats, and there are a guaranteed four rounds from all of the golfers as long as they do not withdraw. Right now there are 66 golfers in the field for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, with the possibility of more being added over the next 24 hours. There is a full slate of statistics to jump into this week with over 30 years of course history, so there should be plenty to work off of when making PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

PGA DFS Picks This Week: WGC-FedEx St. Jude

Plenty of golf was played by this group of 66 golfers over the past 13 weeks, with only two golfers competing fewer than five times: Matthew Wolff and Webb Simpson.

Recent Form

Collin Morikawa’s lackluster first couple of rounds cost him a shot at a gold medal and a spot on the podium. However, he picked up his fifth top-10 in the last 13 weeks, leading the field. Four others have picked up four top-10s in this dataset: Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen.

Three other golfers in the field have come in the top 10 in at least 50% of their starts: Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele. Both Spieth and Schauffele have come in the top 25 in five of six events, trailing only Morikawa in that department, who is 6-for-7. Patrick Reed also has six top-25s in this dataset but has done it over nine events. Casey, Oosthuizen, Spieth, Schauffele, Shane Lowry and Brian Harman each are 5-for-6 in coming in the top 25.

Negative Recent Form

Four golfers in the field have failed to get into the top 25 in any of their starts over the past 13 weeks: Matt Jones, Brad Kennedy, Ryosuke Kinoshita and Stewart Cink. They are four of 14 names that have not been able to crack the top 10 in the last 13 weeks. Others in that camp of note include Wolff, Simpson, Wilco Nienaber, Billy Horschel and Lee Westwood.

Click Here for the google sheet link

PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

  1. Collin Morikawa ($11,000)
  2. Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
  3. Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600)
  4. Scottie Scheffler ($9,100)
  5. Paul Casey ($9,000)
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Course History

Even though there is over 30 years’ worth of course history, 11 players in the field will be making the first appearance since at least 2013. Lucas Glover is probably the most interesting name, and Cameron Davis, Garrick Higgo, K. H. Lee, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris will also be making their first trips.

Three golfers in the field have found the top 10 four times since 2013: Horschel, Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, who has two wins in seven trips. Koepka, Berger and Ryan Palmer are the only other golfers with more than two top-10s, coming in with three each, while seven others have two. Of those golfers with two top-10s, only Palmer and Simpson have added another top-25.

Lastly, Matthew Fitzpatrick has come to Memphis twice since 2013, and he has come in the top six in both tries.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History

  1. Brooks Koepka ($10,600)
  2. Dustin Johnson ($10,200)
  3. Daniel Berger ($9,200)
  4. Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800)
  5. Ryan Palmer ($6,500)

Negative

Eleven golfers in the field this week have teed it up multiple times at TPC Southwind and have yet to come in the top 25. Among the big names in this category include Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak, Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann.

Click here for the google sheet link.

Strokes Gained

This course is short and only has two par 5’s, but big hitters have done well. It is a positional course off the tee, with a heavy emphasis on approach.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

  1. Collin Morikawa
  2. Brooks Koepka
  3. Patrick Cantlay
  4. Paul Casey
  5. Robert MacIntyre
  6. Bryson DeChambeau
  7. Rory McIlroy
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Shane Lowry
  10. Tyrrell Hatton

Strokes Gained Off Tee

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Sergio Garcia
  3. Viktor Hovland
  4. Cameron Champ
  5. Rory McIlroy
  6. Corey Conners
  7. Brooks Koepka
  8. Joaquin Niemann
  9. Matt Fitzpatrick
  10. Patrick Cantlay

Strokes Gained on Approach

  1. Collin Morikawa
  2. Paul Casey
  3. Brooks Koepka
  4. Tyrrell Hatton
  5. Daniel Berger
  6. Hideki Matsuyama
  7. Xander Schauffele
  8. Shane Lowry
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Patrick Cantlay

Strokes Gained Around Green

  1. Kevin Na
  2. Tommy Fleetwood
  3. Jordan Spieth
  4. Patrick Cantlay
  5. Webb Simpson
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Patrick Reed
  8. Louis Oosthuizen
  9. Tony Finau
  10. Ian Poulter
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Strokes Gained Putting

  1. Louis Oosthuizen
  2. Jason Kokrak
  3. Ian Poulter
  4. Patrick Reed
  5. Xander Schauffele
  6. Kevin Kisner
  7. Cameron Smith
  8. Brian Harman
  9. Adam Scott
  10. Webb Simpson

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

  1. Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
  2. Viktor Hovland ($9,700)
  3. Patrick Cantlay ($9,300)
  4. Corey Conners ($8,100)
  5. Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400)

Old School Statistics

With several less-than-driver selections off the tee, it is an even heavier emphasis on the second shot or approach shot. There are a few old-school stats to look at how good one is doing with their approach’s including greens in regulation and proximity to the hole.

Greens in Regulation

  1. Collin Morikawa
  2. Sergio Garcia
  3. Bryson DeChambeau
  4. Daniel Berger
  5. Jason Kokrak
  6. Will Zalatoris
  7. Stewart Cink
  8. Patrick Cantlay
  9. Webb Simpson
  10. Cameron Champ

Proximity

  1. Collin Morikawa
  2. Paul Casey
  3. Ryan Palmer
  4. Tyrrell Hatton
  5. Corey Conners
  6. Jim Herman
  7. Sam Burns
  8. Abraham Ancer
  9. Carlos Ortiz
  10. Stewart Cink

Total Driving

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Sungjae Im
  3. Jason Kokrak
  4. Paul Casey
  5. Martin Laird
  6. Corey Conners
  7. Tyrrell Hatton
  8. Collin Morikawa
  9. Harris English
  10. Sergio Garcia

Around the Green Proximity

  1. Kevin Na
  2. Collin Morikawa
  3. Paul Casey
  4. Tony Finau
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Brian Harman
  8. Patrick Reed
  9. Webb Simpson
  10. Matt Jones

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Putting 15-20 Feet

  1. Matt Fitzpatrick
  2. Martin Laird
  3. Harris English
  4. Matthew Wolff
  5. Patrick Reed
  6. Kevin Kisner
  7. Patrick Cantlay
  8. Jordan Spieth
  9. Robert Streb
  10. Joaquin Niemann

Par 4 Scoring 400-450

  1. Patrick Cantlay
  2. Abraham Ancer
  3. Webb Simpson
  4. Brooks Koepka
  5. Tyrrell Hatton
  6. Jordan Spieth
  7. Xander Schauffele
  8. Adam Scott
  9. Corey Conners
  10. Matt Fitzpatrick

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

  1. Webb Simpson ($8,500)
  2. Abraham Ancer ($8,300)
  3. Sungjae Im ($7,700)
  4. Harris English ($7,600)
  5. Martin Laird ($6,200)

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Looking for more DFS PGA predictions and PGA DFS picks? Yahoo! PGA DFS rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. The DFS PGA projections for today, the FanDuel DFS PGA showdown projections and the DraftKings PGA DFS ownership projections for this week are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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