The Masters is only one week away, but there is a little appetizer with the Valero Texas Open, set to tee off this Thursday. This is not a new event, but it was not played last year due to the COVID stoppage. They will try to make it more Augusta-like to appease guys who want to simulate those conditions, but a lot of the features of this course do not relate to what they will see next week. This is also a standard event, returning to a normal format after the fun change of pace that is match play. That means a totally different format from last week for making DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Course
The Valero is played at TPC San Antonio in Texas and is usually a very tough test for the players. The winning score averaged around -10 the last five years, and if it gets windy, the course can cause issues for the field. It is a par-72 layout measuring around 7,435 yards with Bermuda greens, and it demands accuracy off the tee as well as with approach shots. There are plenty of runoffs around the greens, so even the best iron players will be forced to get creative with their scrambling to tough out some of the difficult holes.
When facing a tough track like this, look to target golfers who have well-rounded games and are built to grind it out. One thing to always keep in mind is there are fewer variables in DFS scoring when a course plays super tough, so finding golfers who finish high and play well is more important than usual. In tough weeks you will see numbers of streak bonuses of three-plus birdies, bogey-free rounds or all four rounds under 70, so DFSers have to rely on placement points and players who put together good days of golf. Obviously the wind will play a huge role in how the scoring goes, but here a few key stats to focus on this week:
Total Driving – Incorporates driving distance and driving accuracy.
Ball Striking – This is going to be correlated to Total Driving rankings, as it is a combo of Total Driving and Greens in Regulation. Elite ball strikers will be a plus here as these greens are difficult to hit.
Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance – There are going to be plenty of missed greens, scrambling opportunities and chances to avoid bogeys. The wind will determine if this is the No. 1 priority (if the wind is up) or secondary stats (if weather favors scoring).
The Field
With a major on deck, most of the world’s best aren’t in this field, but it’s still an average group for the PGA Tour. The big news was Dustin Johnson deciding to skip the event, and that has caused pricing to be much softer. Tony Finau kicks things off at $11,000, while three others are just south of him in the $10,000 range.
Working down, there are a bunch of PGA Tour regulars hoping to rack up some earnings and FedEx Cup points and possibly miracle their way into Augusta. It is a full 144-man field, so going 6-for-6 is going to be difficult. In terms of the cheap options, there are plenty of guys down the pricing tiers, but most come with serious risk in terms of recent form or overall pedigree.
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What to Do About the Two-Year Hiatus
2020 disrupted a ton in the sports world, and golf was no different. Although it was one of the first sports back, there was still a change in the schedule and several events had to cancel all together. One of them was the Valero Texas Open, which didn’t get a chance to play before Augusta, and that removed what would have been a valuable piece of information. Seeing if they once again tried to mirror some conditions of Augusta or how the course played in general would have been valuable, and more players would have had reps at the venue.
The positive is TPC San Antonio has been played a lot over the years, so that should help mitigate the lack of information from recent years. Although there could be some minor changes, don’t expect a major shakeup in terms of skillset needed to compete. The bigger issue is that players’ games evolve a ton over a two-year span, so trusting course history from many years ago can be problematic.
In general, trust course history with players who are more experienced on tour and have a long track record of success at specific types of courses. The biggest thing to watch out for are younger players who were just getting started in 2019. The development from 2019 to 2021 can be huge, and several of those players may be in a totally different position. Don’t be afraid to take a shot with some of the talented newcomers who either haven’t played at this course or have only a few rounds of experience from when they first got on tour.
PGA DFS Picks: Valero Texas Open
Top Priced: Abraham Ancer $9,700 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Ancer played well last week at the WGC Match Play, but his 2-1 record got inched out by Kevin Streelman in a playoff and he was unable to move on to the Round of 16. He now gets a home game in San Antonio, and although it would be nicer if he were cheaper, Ancer is of interest due to the lack of quality options around him in this field. His game is in good shape, especially tee to green, and barring hard conditions, Ancer is set up to lean on his iron game, which has been fantastic throughout the season. If he can limit the scrambling chances this week, he is poised to seriously contend. At $9,700, he will need to do much more than find the weekend, but starting with him allows for a very balanced lineup.
Also considering – Jordan Spieth
Mid-Range: Ryan Moore $7,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
This is a tournament with a few big names, but as previously mentioned, the majority of the top-tier golfers are already in Augusta prepping for next week. This means mid-range plays like Moore are firmly in play, even with sketchy form to begin the 2021 season. Moore returned from injury and had some rust to his game, but lately his form is trending upward. A few made cuts heading into this event sets up an interesting buy spot.
The big positive is the course fit and history for Moore; he seems to love this track, and that makes sense given his lack of firepower off the tee. Moore has finished 18th or better in the last three years of this event, including a third-place finish in 2019. He fits a ton of different builds, and his price seems more than reasonable when factoring in field strength. With his game on the rise and coming to a venue that naturally suits his strength, Moore is worth consideration in this situation.
Also considering – Charley Hoffman   Â
Lower Priced: Scott Stallings $6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
The preferred choice would be to end in the $7,000 range if possible. That most likely is going to impact structuring up top, which means one has to look for some salary savers and incur some extra risk. There are plenty of names to consider, but the recent form on most of these guys makes the missed-cut equity concerning. One name worth a gamble is Scott Stallings, who sits in the mid-$6,000 range and is going to be an asset if he can find the weekend.
Stallings is coming off two missed cuts, but the Honda Classic and Players Championship are different types of events than what he will face here. The big positive is his iron play, which has been steady even with the bad form. Stallings has gained on the approach in six straight events, and eventually that is going to translate on the scorecard. His putter has been cold, losing strokes in six of seven, but that is fluky and worth rolling the dice on.
Also Considering – Byeong Hun An
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