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above the cut

Above the Cut: PGA DFS Picks for The AT&T Byron Nelson (FREE)

Ben Rasa



Fantasy GOlf Picks DraftKings FanDuel John Deere Classic PGA DFS Top 5 fades busts do not play Daniel Berger Alexander Noren this week las vegas expert betting odds lines expert PGA Picks this WEek TPC Deere Run

The AT&T Byron Nelson brings a lot of questions the week before the PGA Championship. Golfers will be dealing with a new course, which is always an added layer of intrigue, trying to make those last adjustments before Kiawah Island. On the PGA DFS side, there is a quality field taking on this new venue and a bunch of money up for grabs, so making the best PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel is crucial.

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The Course

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch out of McKinney, Texas. Previously, this event was hosted at Trinity Forest in 2018 and 2019, and before that TPC Four Seasons was the host. All of this creates a situation where gamers are flying blind heading into this event.

It is a par 72 measuring just under 7,500 yards. Both of those are pretty standard numbers, and the layout seems to have a mix of everything. There are a few gettable par 4’s mixed in with some longer holes that will force players to be sharp with ball striking. The big thing that stands out is all four par 5’s are gettable, and that means some low numbers could be had. If the wind and weather don’t put up any resistance, this seems like a tournament where 20 under or better will be needed. In addition, with a major on deck, it’s hard to imagine them trying to set up a course that will cause players a ton of problems, further adding to the ideal scoring conditions.

For roster construction, it is going to be a lot of the same, with aggressive drivers and quality ball strikers leading the charge. Birdie-or-better percentage, especially on par 5’s, is going to be crucial this week, as will putting, as usual. Putting is always such high variance that it is more secondary, whereas ball striking and birdie percentage are two stats to really key in on. The greens are bentgrass for anyone looking at putting splits, but again, that’s a secondary consideration.

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The Field

This is another 156-man field, which is going to equate to another difficult 6-for-6 test in DFS. Cutting down to 65 and ties makes it difficult, but the reward of landing all the golfers into the weekend will be gigantic this week. Sometimes difficult layouts lead to not much ground being lost, considering the lack of raw points up for grabs. This week every additional golfer is going to equal a lot of scoring due to all the birdie opportunities.

Pricing starts with Bryson DeChambeau taking over the top spot, followed by Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth. Originally Dustin Johnson was in the field, but he decided to rest up for the PGA Championship next week. Even after Spieth, there are plenty of big-name players looking for a positive result heading into Kiawah Island. In terms of value, plenty of players have issues that prevent them from being in the upper price range. To start lineups with two north of $10,000 gamers will need some value, and that is what makes this week a difficult build.

DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks: The Byron Nelson

Top Priced: Jon Rahm $10,800 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel

Rahm’s betting value is minimal at just 8.5-1 outright, but he still works in DFS. Rahm broke his made-cut streak at 22 last week with a missed cut at Wells Fargo. Although that’s never a good sign, his ball striking was still positive and his 2.5 strokes gained off the tee show his game is in fine shape. Rahm needs to find the groove with the putter, but there should not be any long-term issues with the flat stick. He should dismantle the par 5’s and have plenty of looks for eagles throughout the week.

Rahm will not be sneaky, but the missed cut could slightly lessen the masses’ interest in large-field tournaments. Awesemo’s premium ownership projections have Rahm at 22%, which is in line with most of the other top-tier options. The price is reasonable, the long-term form is still world class, and there is no reason to think his game will not translate to the new venue. Fire up Rahm in all formats and do not worry about the rare missed cut.

Also considering – Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day

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Mid-Range: Alex Noren $8,100 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel

There are a bunch of aggressive bombers right above Noren in pricing, so moving up to Luke List and Keith Mitchell in certain builds works as well. However, Noren isn’t like these other guys, mostly relying on his short game and coming in with average-at-best ball striking. He still has found the weekend in five of six events and should have plenty of opportunities for birdie looks this week. Awesemo’s PGA DFS projections have Noren at nearly 60% to find the weekend once again this week, which will be the key to returning value in this spot.

With so many bombers right above him, ownership should be reasonable, and his short game is good enough to mask what could be some slight approach issues. Noren has upside since he can make putts in bunches, and the irons are erratic even if they are weak on a median projection. With a course that is completely new to the tour, ownership and mid-range pivots are even more important.

Also considering – Aaron Wise, Ben Martin

Lower Priced: Anirban Lahiri $6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

Each week gamers are facing the difficult questions of how low to go and who the best salary relief is on the slate. With a full 156-man field, there are tons of options at every lower-range price point, making the task that much more difficult. Most of these guys are going to get cut, but at the same time, finding a few that make the weekend can unlock stars-and-scrubs builds that are perfect for large-field tournaments.

Looking at Anirban Lahiri as a potential punt play is scary, but that comes with the territory of dipping into the $6,000 range. He is just 7-for-13 in made cuts on the season, but there is some upside with a pair of top-10 finishes. Many of his recent events were played on tight, technical layouts, which isn’t ideal and is not what he will face here. He ranks 34th on tour in par-5 birdie-or-better percentage, which is a key metric and could help him in the raw scoring output. Awesemo projects him at just 1.8% owned, so there is no need to overhaul the portfolio to get leverage on Lahiri this week.

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Lahiri is an incredibly streaky putter and player in general, which is perfect for a tournament like this. Although the missed-cut risk is high, one could do a lot worse in the lower ranges, and this is a sleeper pick worth considering this week. If he makes the weekend, he has done his job, and the way he scores he easily should outscore his placement.

Also Considering – Roger Sloan, Sepp Straka

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content. The Yahoo! PGA DFS projections for today, the FanDuel DFS PGA showdown projections for today and the DraftKings DFS PGA ownership projections for today are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. FanDuel PGA DFS rankings will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more DFS PGA DraftKings picks and DFS PGA picks today?

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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