After a one-week stay in Florida, The PGA Tour heads to Charlotte, N.C., for the Wells Fargo Championship. This event is similar to the Valspar Championship in that the 2020 version was scheduled to take place in the midst of the pandemic and had to be cancelled. Still, there is plenty of course history at this venue and a strong field to break down. This is one of the better PGA DFS weeks of the year, with a tough test and a lot of top-end golfers getting some reps in before the PGA Championship in a few weeks. Let’s break down the PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf lineups this week.
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The Course
Quail Hollow has served as the host for this event for over a decade, so the players should know their way around the place. The course is long, a par 71 around 7,550 yards, which should make for difficult test. Par 71 means only three par 5’s, and the course has a bunch of par 4’s measuring 450 to 500 yards and even a few that approach 500-plus. In other words, get ready to see some long iron shots this week. This course had always been a par 72 before changing in 2018, so going forward it looks to be an even tougher test than it was historically. One other quick thing to note is that the PGA Championship was at Quail Hollow in 2017, so the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship was played at a different course. Keep that in mind when looking over course history this week.
Outside of the time when Quail Hollow hosted a major, this looks to be a place where golfers can get away with some errant tee shots. That is not to say they should bomb it all over, but the rough isn’t as penalizing as it was when the course was modified for the PGA Championship. Players like Jason Day have had success here, and working in and out of trouble will be a theme this week. Give a boost to guys who are aggressive off the tee since distance will be a nice asset this week. It is certainly not a course that allows players to lean on any one skillset, so get well-rounded players this week.
The fairways are tough to hit, so finding players who are pure ball strikers is going to be key. Good off tee and approach games will be a must for contending. Scrambling will increase in priority if it looks windy, as that leads to more missed greens in regulation. Like most top-end events, this course is going to test every part of a golfer’s game, so focus on those ball strikers who are not terrible on Bermuda putting surfaces and hope their tee-to-green games can keep them in the hunt.
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The Field
There is another full 156-man field vying for the top 65 and ties to make the weekend. This is going to make 6-for-6 very difficult once again, so be prepared for some cut sweats on Friday. The good news is there are plenty of options at every price point, and that includes the very top of the board.
Pricing kicks off with Justin Thomas taking over the top salary spot, followed by Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm. From there, there are several world-class players filling out the rest of the $10,000 range, including past champion Rory McIlroy, who comes in off a horrendous missed cut at the Masters. Working down in pricing, it is a who’s who of PGA Tour regulars and guys who normally fill out the bottom of the pricing. This tournament has everything in play in terms of lineup construction, and that is one of the many reasons it is one of the best on the calendar.
PGA DFS Picks: The Wells Fargo Championship
Top Priced: Jon Rahm $10,800 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel
Similar to majors, there will be more top-end players in this field than available spots, so tough choices must be made. Ideally all these guys up top would make lineups, but that isn’t feasible given the depth of this field. Rahm is the preferred choice at the top, as he is incredibly consistent and his game suits this layout. He comes in having made all 11 cuts this year and has seven top-10s on the resume. Not having any wins is slightly disappointing, but those are going to come if he keeps striking it like he is.
To provide some numbers that show Rahm’s consistency, one has to go back to August 2020 to find a negative tee-to-green performance. He is dominant off the tee and is going to be able to lean on his ball striking to get around this course. Rahm finished 58th in his lone appearance at this course in 2017, but that was at the PGA Championship. The course was set up very different, and this will be his debut at the Wells Fargo Championship version of this track.
Long term, this could develop into an ideal course for Rahm given his well-rounded game. Adding to the appeal is that Awesemo’s PGA DFS projections have Rahm ranking as the highest scorer in this field, which solidifies the preference for him up top this week.
Also considering – Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau
Mid-Range: Emiliano Grillo $8,100 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
“Relax” is the mantra for Grillo despite the fact that he pulled off something special last week, but not in a good way. After storming out Thursday with a fantastic 5-under 66, he managed to shoot 10 shots worse Friday without a birdie en route to a missed cut. Such is golf on the PGA Tour, but that was truly shocking from a guy who had been playing fantastic golf. There is still a lot of good in his game right now, and after that showing, the ownership should dip. Looking at the Awesemo PGA DFS ownership projections, Grillo is sitting around 11%, which is a steal given his overall form.
Despite the poor effort last week, Grillo comes in having made four of six cuts, with all those finishes being 21st or better. That is atypical, as the usual knock is he makes the weekend but fails to grab placement points. The shift in volatility does hurt the made-cut equity, but the tradeoff is more upside, and in large-field GPPs that’s a risk worth taking. He has made the cut in both appearances here, including a ninth-place finish the last time he played here in 2018. Grillo needs to just get back to his crisp ball striking, limit the scrambling chances and hold the putter to an average output. He can do all three of those things despite a rough Valspar last week.
Also considering – Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler
Lower Priced: Kyle Stanley $7,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Every week, gamers are facing the difficult questions of how low to go and who is the best salary relief on the slate? With a full 156-man field, there are dozens of options at every cheap price point, making the task that much more difficult. A few of these guys are going to play well, but for every one of them, there are five who will miss the cut. Still, there are some names worth being overweight on, and Stanley is one of them.
Stanley is a great play at courses with difficult par 4’s, and that is certainly a trait of Quail Hollow. He is fantastic at dealing with par 4’s over 450 yards, and that is going to be an asset this week. Stanley has had success here, finishing eighth in 2019 and 13th in 2018. His form now probably isn’t as good as it was then, which is why he finds himself in the lower-$7,000 range, but he is still worth some interest
Stanley comes in off 39th-place finish at Valspar, mostly due to a hot putter, and that’s not the best sign. Still, Valspar and Quail Hollow do not equate at all, so don’t make too much of a completely different venue and one week of golf. If he can keep the putter hot, he should be able to find this weekend. That in itself is probably enough to pay off the tag.
Awesemo’s PGA DFS ownership projections have him for just 1 or 2% ownership, which immediately gives any Stanley lineup differentiation against the field. There is no need to allocate a huge percentage of teams to a guy like this, as only a few shares can provide leverage.
Also Considering – Luke List, Aaron Wise
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