Fantasy Golf: Strokes Gained Analysis for The Masters

Every fantasy sport has its set of data that helps project what’s going to happen, and fantasy golf is no different. In professional golf, that’s done by a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a Columbia professor, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. It’s then compiled daily, weekly, and yearly stats, or however long your database goes for. The database we will be working with for fantasy golf and PGA DFS covers about 18 months’ worth of tournaments. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to learn players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig into The Masters info and PGA DFS picks.

[AUGUSTA]

Fantasy Golf: Strokes Gained Analysis | The Masters PGA DFS Picks

This is a 93-Man Field with the top-50 and ties making the cut.

Seventeen seems to the magical number right now, as that’s how many golfers I’m missing data on that’s competing here this week. Twelve golfers in the field have thirty or more starts, and the average number of starts being 23. That’s plenty of data to develop a profile for the golfers competing and know what exactly each golfer will have to do to play well here this week and be one of our fantasy golf targets.

Strokes Gained Total

  • Data Set: Just four golfers have gained at least two strokes 10 or more times, which is double what anyone had competing in the Bermuda Championship. Goes to show you just how strong this field is. Those four names are Bryson DeChambeau (12), Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson (11) and Patrick Reed with 10.
    • Looking at it a different way, in terms of percentage of starts and strokes gained over 1.5, only six golfers do this in 50% or more of their starts. From the four above, Simpson, DeChambeau and Thomas, and joining them is Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Xander Scahuffele. 
  • Graphic: Dustin Johnson’s performance at the Northern Trust is what gives me hope that even if Bryson plays his best this week, Dustin can still beat him, or at least make a game of it. His approaches will be what separates him from Bryson this week, but he has to match him or beat him on the green. Others that have put up a good enough number to compete with Bryson this week are Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Matthew Wolff. 

Find The Best PGA Odds For The Masters In One Place

Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Please enjoy our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time, including The Masters this weekend. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.


Strokes Gained Tee to Green

  • Dataset: When we take putting out of the strokes gained metric and look just at tee to green, four golfers have gained more than 1.75 strokes at least 10 times. Those four are Justin Thomas (12), Hideki Matsuyama (12), Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa (10).
    • Switching to a percentage and consistency as our barometer, only four golfers have gained at least one stroke in 50% or more of their starts. They are Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama. 
  • Graphic: A couple of names we haven’t mentioned that’s gained at least a stroke tee to green in the last ten weeks include Chez Reavie, Cameron Champ, Francesco Molinari, Corey Conners and Tyler Duncan. 
Join STOKASTIC+ today!
Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

Strokes Gained Off the Tee

  • Dataset: Consistency, or upside? If you’re looking for something specific, you’ll get a different answer in terms of who to pick, but if it’s upside you are after, it’s no doubt that Cameron Champ and Bryson DeChambeau have the most upside of anyone in the field off the tee. They’ve gained over a stroke 10 times in this dataset, the only golfers to do so.
    • However, If it’s consistency you are after, and looking for someone to gain at least a half a stroke off the tee, the answer is Rory McIlroy. He’s done it in 86% of his starts. The next best is 77% from Jon Rahm, and then 70% from Champ. They are the only three golfers at or over 70%.
  • Graphic: It certainly hasn’t been the driver that is Scottie Scheffler‘s problem right now, as he sits only behind Sergio Garcia for the best week off the tee in the last 10. Also up there is Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners and Max Homa. 

Strokes Gained on Approach 

  • Dataset: Since his emergence onto the pro scene, Collin Morikawa has shown us that he is one of the world’s best iron players when he’s hot. In fact, he might be the best when he’s totally on his game. Stats would agree, as he’s the only golfer in the field to have gained over a stroke on the approach 10 times, and in fact, he’s done it 12. The next closest is Justin Thomas and Webb Simpson, who have each done it nine times.
    • However, Thomas is a bit more consistent than Collin, as it’s either feast or famine for him. Thomas, however, has gained at least a half a stroke in 73% of his starts. Morikawa and Corey Conners are the only other two that gain at least a half a stroke in 50% or more of their starts.
  • Graphic: As I mentioned a few sections ago, DJ’s iron game will be the deciding factor between him and DeChambeau this week, in my opinion. The problem is, Bryson isn’t that far back himself in terms of strokes gained on the approach, gaining almost two strokes a few weeks back. Others that have found their irons and gained at least 1.25 strokes include Cameron Champ, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim and Chez Reavie. 

Strokes Gained Around the Green

The Masters Fantasy Golf PGA DFS

  • Dataset: The average golfer this week will miss about 1/3 of his greens, and those that can mitigate the damage and save par over those 1/3 will inevitably have a chance to win here this week. Nobody gets hotter around the green then Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Dylan Frittelli and Byeong Hun An. They each have gained at least one stroke six times, two more than the other competitors in the field.
  • Graphic: Ian Poulter and Hideki Matsuyama seem to be very comfortable with their around the green games right now, gaining at least 1.4 strokes once over the past 10 weeks. Others include Sebastian Munoz, Adam Hadwin, Patrick Cantlay and Charles Howell III. 

Strokes Gained Putting

The Masters Fantasy Golf PGA DFS

  • Dataset: Strokes Gained Putting, making bad golfers look good since Jordan Spieth. Believe it or not, over the past 47 tournament weeks, he’s actually only gained over 1.25 strokes putting four times. That’s not even in the top 10. Six golfers have done it six times. They are Brendon Todd, Xander Schauffele, Lanto Griffin, Webb Simpson, Andrew Putnam and Billy Horschel. 
  • Graphic: Jason Kokrak’s breakthrough win at Shadow Creek is indicative of what can happen when a perennially good ball striker finds his putter for the week. It’s pretty much a guaranteed Top-10 for players like him when they do that. Others that have been putting hot recently include Francesco Molinari, Tommy Fleetwood, Abraham Ancer, Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed and Patrick Cantlay. 

[PGA-content-links]

Strokes Gained PGA DFS Sheet

Click here for the google sheet link.


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more fantasy golf and PGA DFS picks content for The Masters? We’ve got loads of fantasy golf articles, data, PGA DFS picks cheat sheets, and more on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.