This column a quick hitter article, to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your fantasy golf, PGA DFS lineups, and give you a couple of recommendations for Sunday’s US Open showdown slate at Pebble Beach.
DraftKings is offering 50K to first for the final round showdown contests!
Tournament Update: Round 1/2 Recap
- Scoring Average:
- Round 1: 72.55
- Round 2: 72.48
- Round 3:72.38
Round 4 Model
Mr. Woodland maintained his strong form all the way home and will take a one-shot lead heading into Sunday. Justin Rose remained ridiculously hot with his short game that I just had to add that stat into the model, to show how good he’s playing there. He’s gaining on average of four strokes around, that’s one full stroke better than the guy in second place Chesson Hadley. That’s insanity. That number also doesn’t count the up and down he just accomplished on 18.
For the third straight day, and what’s set to be the worst putting week of the year for this guy, losing another 1.25 on the day, Dustin Johnson just can’t seem to figure it out. The ball striking number remained decent, albeit a bit down today from round two, but still, a 4.65 differential between ball striking and putting is terrible. Alex Prugh continued his hot form in ball striking, but returned to bad putting, losing .65 strokes on the day. Emiliano Grillo, Erik Van Rooyen, and junior Viktor Hovland round out the top-five in that category.
Chesson Hadley returned to his first round form today, at least tee to green, but his double on the last cost him dearly. Tom Hoge, Patrick Cantlay, Scott Piercy and Rickie Fowler all improved on their Round 2 tee to green stat by at least three strokes.
Round Four Showdown Picks
*Remember these picks focus on golfers outside the top-10. The reason for this is simple: the guys in the top-10 are playing great and make for obvious picks, I don’t want the obvious.
Quick Strategy Session:
This is important to note because of the difference in scoring points being so minimal outside of the top-nine. Only four points separate 9th and 30th. So for example, someone like Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth are five shots back of 9th, which is probably the furthest I’d go down at this point, at least for the studs. For golfers priced under 7.2K, I’d be more inclined to take a risk.
DJ and Adam Scott lead the model rankings of golfer’s that sit outside the top-10. With plenty of studs inside the top-10, you might be able to get them relatively low owned, especially Scott. DJ will still be semi-popular as I’m sure gamers will bet on the putting performance turning around. The next two on the list, well one we are going to highlight, and the other is Francesco Molinari who doubled the easy 7th hole, but other than that looked pretty good until the bogey on 18.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,400)
Sneaking thru the cut, bogeying the last on Friday, Patrick returned to form today. And most notably with his irons. The model doesn’t like him much, and most gamers may overlook his stats since, on the average, he is only gaining three-tenths of a stroke tee to green for the first three rounds. I’ll use that and low ownership as a reason to give him a good % of my lineups tomorrow.
Byeong Hun-An played an impressive round today, playing alongside Tiger Woods, Benny shot a three-under 68. A lot of the work though came on and around the greens, as he lost over two strokes with his approaches on the day. He’ll likely be super popular tomorrow coming into the round just outside the top-10 and cheap. He along with Matt Wallace, Chez Reavie, and Chesson Hadley will all be massively popular tomorrow.
Are you looking for a little a lower owed golfer?
Marc Leishman ($7,500)
The Aussie had put together two good rounds and one lousy round before bouncing back nicely today in Round 3. He sits just four back of the top-10 — something that’ll be on his mind when he tee’s off tomorrow. Since all of the golfers I mentioned above are all priced right around him, I think he likely goes under-owned. I’ll take Leishman as another low owned overweight for the slate.
There are quite a few names I like in this range for tomorrow, and I think it’s likely you’ll need one of these to win the 50K. So I’m going just to list out the ones I like in order:
- Viktor Hovland ($6,900)
- Brandon Wu ($6,500)
- Alex Prugh ($6,100)
- Nate Lashley ($6,600)
- Kyle Stanley ($6,400)
- Collin Morikawa ($6,600)
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