The Winning Element: Farmers Insurance PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Ownership Percentages

All of my PGA DFS picks, and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for the Farmers Insurance Open, and now it’s FREE!

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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 50 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.

Article Index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Notes on the chalkiest players
  • #NarrativeStreet

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
  • PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau. 
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

It seems that I’ve been able to nail the mid-price section through this early part of the year, but I’m yet to nail the $8,000-9,000 range. That was evident last week by trying to jam in Sam Burns with Si Woo Kim, Abraham Ancer and Scottie Scheffler. I still was able to cash in the $555 DraftKings and one $333 on FanDuel, and a very successful GPP week gave me a slight profit for the week, just about 15% return.

Viewing (Sweat) Schedule

Not only do we get PGA Tour live this week, but we get to watch Jordan Spieth slap it around the course. That is always appointment viewing for me. He gets paired up with Phil Mickelson and Xander Schauffele this week.

Weather

While one would think San Diego is supposed to offer perfect weather every day, that’s not the case this week. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s the first two days, and it could potentially be a washout Friday. The weekend, however, should provide better temps. If it is a washout Friday, they likely will play as many holes as they can Saturday. It’s likely the cut will be around 2:00 p.m. EST Saturday, with tee times starting then and the first groups maybe getting in 18 holes. The last groups teeing off would play around nine holes and play 27 on Sunday.


Latest PGA DFS Content


Fantasy Golf Favorites Summary for the Farmers Insurance Open

I have made it almost a month without having to invest any dollars in the stock of Spieth, but a cold, windy, rainy Torrey Pines seems like a perfect spot to toss some profits into him. My lowest amount I’ll have of him is 10% because I don’t want to miss it, and at $7,600, he actually doesn’t hurt you all that much if he does miss the cut.

As far as Will Gordon goes, he made the cut last week, so that’s encouraging. But he did nothing on the weekend, so I’m not overly excited. I’ll still have about 10% this week.

PGA DFS Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open

Total Player Pool: 54

Week-Long DFS Contests

DraftKings

  • 10 $100 Lineups
  • 200 GPP lines

FanDuel

  • two $333
  • 150 GPP lineups

Core Golfers

Rory McIlroy ($11,000)

Having a bunch of time off between his previous start and last week in Abu Dhabi, I was expecting a little rust. But McIlroy got himself into contention rather quickly, and except for the tweak on Friday, he looked good. If there is anyone to break the bad streak of players coming for Abu Dhabi to here, it’ll be McIlroy, who has two top-fives in his two starts at Torrey.

Tony Finau ($10,700)

Sure, the price is high, but I think Finau is closer than ever. Maybe I want to believe that, or maybe it’s true, but I’m trying to throw out the price when I see a golfer coming off a top-five and is going to be 8% owned.

The $9,000 Range

It’s a difficult range to just pick one guy as a pure core play since my ownership is spread pretty equally between them, outside of Harris English. I think all of them have their upside here this week, including Scheffler and Brooks Koepka, who missed the cut last week. I won’t really be that overweight or underweight anyone.

Adam Scott ($8,300)

A lackluster finish at the Sony Open doesn’t concern me at all here with Scott. A course and conditions that will require a full onslaught of skills, with an emphasis on tee to green, should fit his style. He is at huge discount in price compared to some of his peers, so I’ll take advantage of that this week.

Will Zalatoris ($8,100)

We know Zalatoris is an incredibly good ball striker with what we’ve seen from his game in the smallish sample. I want to play him on these types of courses, especially when ownership is projected to be under 10%. I think his game is comparable and maybe even better long term than Cameron Davis, who is in this price range and comes with double the ownership.

Gary Woodland ($7,800)

A fringe play last week, I saw what I needed to out of Woodland to believe that he’s turned the corner in terms of his injuries. We know what type of talent he has when he’s on his game, and I want to be in on that before everyone else jumps in and we get a price jump. These next two weeks have always provided good paychecks for the Woodland family, and I expect that continue in this stretch.

Gambles of the week ($7,000 and Below)

Matt Jones ($7,000)

Jones has had a couple of good starts in a row as he has been able to find a bit of a groove of late, making five straight cuts. He came in 13th here two years ago and has four other made cuts in five tries, with just one missed cut happening back in 2018. With expected ownership of 5% or less, I don’t know that I’ll need to get 20%, but Jones is certainly closer to a core play.

Wyndham Clark ($6,800/

Clark had one bad round with his irons last week mixed with three other good ones. I’ll bet on getting at least four mediocre ones, rather than one really bad one, and we know his driver and short game are fine.

Justin Suh and Andy Ogletree ($6,600)

In a year from now, I may be laughed at (or laughing at myself) for playing these guys at a tournament like this, but in terms of their talent, I think that they compare with the golfers around them. Long term they could be much better; we just don’t know.

Key

O = Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight

  1. Jon Rahm (E)
  2. Xander Schauffele (U)
  3. Corey Conners (E to U)
  4. Harris English (U)
  5. Billy Horschel (U)
  6. Jason Kokrak (U)
  7. Cameron Davis (E to U)
  8. Ryan Palmer (E to U)
  9. Si Woo Kim ( U)

PGA DFS Fringe Players for DraftKings & FanDuel

* Likely to be in a higher-dollar lineup and 15-20% in GPPs. 

  1. Patrick Reed
  2. Sungjae Im
  3. Brooks Koepka
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Matthew Wolff
  7. Scottie Scheffler
  8. Francesco Molinari
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Byeong Hun An

PGA DFS Alternates (10-15% GPPs)

  1. Marc Leishman
  2. Jason Day
  3. Cameron Smith
  4. Louis Oosthuizen
  5. Carlos Ortiz
  6. Dylan Frittelli
  7. Doug Ghim
  8. Erik van Rooyen
  9. Maverick McNealy
  10. James Hahn
  11. Harold Varner III
  12. Chase Seiffert
  13. Max Homa

PGA DFS Holes in One (1-5% GPPs)

  1. Bubba Watson
  2. Rickie Fowler
  3. Doc Redman
  4. Cameron Tringale
  5. Adam Hadwin
  6. Lanto Griffin
  7. J.B. Holmes
  8. Tom Hoge
  9. Brandt Snedeker
  10. Tyler McCumber
  11. Sam Ryder
  12. Kevin Tway

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Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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