Fortinet Championship Fantasy Golf Preview: Max Homa’s Off Tee Brilliance Leads PGA DFS Lineups This Week

The two-week break that the PGA Tour was on is now over, and the 2022-23 season starts this week with the Fortinet Championship. This event plays in Napa Valley at the Silverado Golf Course, which has hosted since 2013. It is worth noting that a lot of players in the field this week were active in the Korn Ferry Tour finals over the last three weeks, so getting up to date on the recent form of some of these names will be key to identifying value for PGA DFS picks.

Also don’t forget to check out the Stokastic projections, which have both scoring data and ownership projections. Stokastic projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. For the first event back, it will be crucial to lean on these, as they consider longer-term and short-term form.

PGA DFS Preview | Fortinet Championship 2022

The first stop of the new PGA Tour season always feels like something of a wide-open event. The Fortinet Championship has seen a pretty wide swath of winners over the last six or seven years too. Brendon Steele triumphed at this venue in back-to-back seasons in 2016 and 2017, and a 47-year-old Stewart Cink won this event in 2020. One of the best off-tee players in Cameron Champ triumphed here in 2019 as well. Max Homa put together a sensational back nine last year to steal this event from Maverick McNealy, who looked primed to grab his first win with about nine holes to go. Both men will be back in the field this year.

Fortinet Championship PGA DFS Picks and Preview

Here’s a list of notes and names of some of the top players and most interesting entrants into the event this week.

  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Justin Suh
  • Max Homa
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Jason Day
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Davis Riley
  • Taylor Pendrith

Matsuyama is clearly the cream of the crop this week, but his form has been volatile of late. It was a pretty up and down 2022 for Matsuyama, who finished sixth at this venue last season. Suh won the Korn Ferry Tour finals two weeks ago and was once a heralded young amateur star. The fact he took an extra year to get his full ticket to the PGA Tour (extra year compared to some of his peers like Collin Morikawa) should not dissuade from him this week or in 2023.

Fowler and Day remain pure wild cards. Fowler barely maintained his card for 2023, but he reaffirmed his allegiance to the PGA Tour recently. Theegala and Riley are two great young players for the fall, and Pendrith is great off the tee and sets up nicely for the venue. Some of the biggest hitters on tour (Tway, Champ) have found success at Silverado.

Fortinet Championship Course Preview

Silverado Country Club (North) — Napa, Calif.

7,166 yards, Par 72; Greens: Poa Annua/Bentgrass

Designer: Ben Harmon (1955) Renovation Robert Trent Jones (1966) + Johnny Miller (2011)

Similar Courses:

  • Detroit Golf Club
  • Torrey Pines
  • TPC Scottsdale

Silverado has tended to distinguish itself as a solid venue for off-tee specialists. It’s not a supremely long course, but as a par 72, it does have four par 5’s, which will really reward long and straight drivers. The venue is also set up with relatively tight fairways, so hitting the fairways here is much more difficult than normal — the field at Silverado has typically hit fairways 8% to 10% less than the tour average. The past five winners have averaged well over 310 yards for the week of their win. Homa was also sixth in strokes gained off the tee here last season.

The green structures are the other tough portion of Silverado. The greens are poa, but they’re generally really quick in the early fall. This is still a course where the PGA players can go low, but it all starts off the tee. If players are avoiding trouble, then the rest of this course opens up, with lots of short approaches and greens that will require some finessing but are not impossible. They also tend to yield good make percentages from 20 feet and in.

Fortinet Championship Past Winners and Stats

2021 – Max Homa (19 Under Par)

  • Won with a final-round 65 (shot 14 under on the weekend total).
  • Ranked sixth in strokes gained off the tee and second in tee to green.
  • Benefited from a late-round collapse by McNealy, who imploded for a double bogey around the green on 17 to finish 1 back.

Strokes Gained: TTG +10.5; APP +4.3; OTT +3,5; ATG +2.7; PUTT +4.2

2020 – Stewart Cink (21 Under Par)

  • Was extremely consistent off the tee but also had some of the best approach of the past five winners.
  • Much like Homa, Cink shot 14 under (and back-to-back 65s) on the weekend and surprised the field after just scraping by to make the cut.

Strokes Gained: TTG +9.1; APP +5.2; OTT +2.1; ATG +2.0; PUTT +4.3

2019 – Cameron Champ (17 Under Par)

  • Gained 6.7 strokes off the tee alone and was just generally steady in slightly tougher conditions.
  • Like most of past winners, his off-tee prowess was tied with a competent short game and solid to elite putting.

Strokes Gained: TTG +11.5; APP +2.8; OTT +6.7; ATG +2.0; PUTT +2.0

Fortinet Championship Course Horses to Watch

These are players who continue to defy logic with how consistent they have been at this week’s venue. This section will try to decipher what they do so well and why it allows them to flourish at this venue, but some of this is just player preference.

Want to see if the course horses will be popular? Check out Stokastic’s ownership projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

Top Five Strokes Gained at Silverado (Past Five Years)

  1. Chez Reavie
  2. Brendan Steele
  3. Kevin Streelman
  4. Patrick Rodgers
  5. Chesson Hadley

Short Term Form: Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 24 Rounds)

  • Brendan Steele
  • Chez Reavie
  • Corey Conners
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Adam Schenk

Long Term Form: Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 24 Rounds)

  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Luke List
  • Corey Conners
  • Hayden Buckley

Top Five Total Strokes Gained Total (Last six events)

  • Andrew Putnam
  • Taylor Moore
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Cameron Davis
  • Taylor Pendrith.

Fortinet Championship Weather Forecast

Thursday a.m.: 70 F, Winds 5 mph

Thursday p.m.: 80-85 F, Winds 13-15 mph

Friday a.m.: 70 F, Winds 5 mph

Friday p.m.: 80-85 F, Wings 12-4 mph

As of now, this isn’t a week where wave stacking should play a massive role in strategy, but it is always a good idea to take a look at forecast again on Wednesday or watch the Fortinet Championship PGA DFS Live Before Lock show Wednesday night on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.

Fortinet Championship Early Betting Leans

Wyndham Clark Top 20 and Outright | BetMGM

Clark has the prefect profile for this week’s venue. He’s strong off the tee but can roll it too and gained 3.9 strokes putting in Detroit — which was the last time he played on poa greens. This is less of an approach-driven venue, which makes it an ideal setting for Clark to gain in other categories, where he’s stronger than the field. He finished 30th at this event last season and gained 3.7 strokes off the tee for the week but lost strokes putting. If the putter goes positive, he should improve from where he was here on Sunday last season.

It’ll be interesting to see where Clark is in the betting odds Monday morning, but with him coming off top-10 finishes in July and August, he is a good top-20 play at a venue that fits his skillset.

Want to see how Clark and other strong off-tee players like Cameron Champ rank? Get the Stokastic PGA Projections for the week.

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