PGA DFS Picks: The First Cut BMW Championship Preview, DraftKings +

Thanks for stopping by The First Cut! This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for the BMW Championship. The FedEx Cup Playoffs have arrived, and the best in the world assemble for a three-week sprint to the finish line, with a cool 10 million sitting on the other side.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown and PGA DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview

The BMW Championship

This is a real treat this week for us golf course fanatics, as the PGA Tour heads to Olympia Fields for the first time since 2003. It hosted the U.S. Open then but has gotten some length added to it since then. The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup point standings head to Chicago for the second-to-last week of the Tour’s season.

Course Commentary: Olympia Fields Country Club

This beautiful par 70 sits in the suburbs of the city, in a town called Olympia Fields. It’s been around for over a century and sits around 25 miles outside of the city. Its intriguing feature is the clubhouse, known for its gigantic size, the course itself is certainly of major caliber. It is a par 70 that boasts 7,300 yards, and since 2005, has had close to 200 yards added to it. If you are as into golf as I am, then maybe you recall this beautiful course, with tree-lined fairways on full display at the 2017 Women’s PGA Championship. Won by Danielle Kang at -13, the course setup was spectacular, and that’s something I’m looking forward to seeing again this week.

Tournament Commentary

The top 70 have been crowned and move on to this week, as this is week 2 of three in helping crown the FedEx Cup Champion for the 2020 season. Don’t worry, though; golf doesn’t even take a one-week break after next week, as the Safeway Open is scheduled to play a week before the second major in a month, the U.S. Open.

Tournament Format

With only 70 golfers in the field, there is no cut this week.

Course Facts & Figures: Olympia Fields Country Club

Par and Yardage

Par 70: 7,300 yards

Course Difficulty

6/49 in 2003

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3’s: 487, 247, 168, 215
12 Par 4’s: 471, 461, 400, 417, 430, 445, 444, 402, 389, 444, 455, 496
Two Par 5’s: 626, 576

Grass Types & Hazards

Grass Type: n/a
Average Green Size: n/a
Water Hazards: n/a
Bunkers: n/a

Designer

Willie Park Jr.

Facts and Figures

*Note these numbers are from 2003*

Off the Tee: Almost 20 years ago, this course proved to be some of the tightest fairways to hit, coming in just over 53% of the time, while driving distance was more in the middle. To me that says more drivers than not were hit off the tee, which is likely totally irrelevant since guys are hitting their 5-iron as far as some with the driver back then.
Approach to the Green: Because fairways were hard to hit and U.S. Open rough is never easy to get out of, greens in regulation were below 60% for the week.
Around the Green: Scrambling is never easy at a major, so the sub-60% number doesn’t surprise me.
On the Green: Once on the greens, they weren’t overly difficult but were above average in terms of difficulty back in 2013.

Sweatsheet and Commentary from 2003

I suspect the first hole, which now plays over 600 yards, will likely be harder than what’s given here. Still, the sixth hole will most certainly be the easiest again this week, it being the only par 5 on the course where most, if not all, of the field of 70 can reach the green in two.

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Player Preview

The Expected Top 25 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds, Salaries. (Updated Monday p.m. with Odds, Newest OWGR Ranking and PGA DFS Salaries)

Everyone except for Brooks Koepka is here to compete this week.

Previous Winners and Cutline for the BMW Championship (held at different courses)

2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20)
2017: Marc Leishman (-20)
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23)
2015: Jason Day (-22)

Statistical Comparison for PGA DFS Picks

Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: Since we are working off different sets of courses, there really isn’t much useful information to report here. But I do find it rather amusing that all the winners have gotten to -20 in the past five years, even though the course hasn’t been the same. We just saw a -30 winner last week, as Dustin Johnson for much of the week acted as if he was playing “The Golf Club” video game in real life. I don’t think we’ll get that low a winner this week, and hopefully, we will break the streak of -20 winners and get a little more of a challenge for the golfers this week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: n/a
Putting; How good do they need to be here?: n/a