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Golf Betting: PGA picks for the 2019 Safeway Open (FREE)

Ben Rasa

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Swing season continues this week as players will be teeing it in Napa California at Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course. This is another event where some newcomers will look to make a splash and possibly break through and grab their first PGA tour win. So far this swing season we have seen both winners be first timers and that trend could easily continue this week. Let’s get into some golf betting PGA picks for the 2019 Safeway Open.

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The course features a par-72 measuring out around 7,200 yards, which is on the shorter side for what they will face during the year. Par-72 means four par-5’s for these guys so making eagles something that will play a role this week.

For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups make sure to read the DFS Safeway Open Preview which can help you build teams, but let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.

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Futures / Outrights Winners

Byeong Hun An 30-1

An is quickly becoming one of the better players without a win on tour, but that should be changing sooner rather than later. In 2018, An had two runner-up finishes and in the last two months, he finished third twice in tournaments that he had a real shot to win. Last week was one of those events at Sanderson Farms where An held the lead for a lot of the tourney and just came up short on Sunday.

The ball-striking is always there for An, but the massive change is he clearly has found some improvement on the greens. During 2019, he had a stretch where he lost strokes putting in nine-straight events to begin the season. He had one of his best putting performances ever last week, gaining 4.3 strokes with the flatstick, and that makes it two-straight weeks of positive SGP. Odds-wise, you certainly are paying the tax for the near-win last week, but in a field like this, I still can get on board with a 30-1 outright price.

Bud Cauley 66-1

I’ve mentioned previously that Cauley is going to be a guy I’m buying throughout the swing season. He got things started two weeks back with a 14th-place finish a few weeks ago at Greenbrier, and rode a hot putter throughout that week, but Cauley didn’t have any glaring issues and the game looks to be in solid shape. Cauley isn’t the best ball-striker out there, but he also doesn’t have a glaring weakness to the game which makes for a lot of well-rounded SG performances.

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He comes to Safeway where he had a 7th-place finish in 2017 and won’t need to try and kill it off the tee with the way the course sets up. We already know that Cauley is one of the best ARG players on tour, so if he can just not bleed strokes ball-striking, he should perform well here. We do have some top-end guys taking more win equity than recent weeks, but there is no doubt a guy like Cauley can win in a field of this strength.

** Don’t forget to check out the daily shows throughout the week where we touch on various topics from Sports Betting, Week in Review, and plenty of PGA tour golf breakdowns. You can find all my shows during the week on the  Awesemo.com YouTube homepage. **

Matchups

Bud Cauley +105 vs. Sebastian Munoz

Props to Sebastian Munoz, who broke through and got his first PGA victory ever last week at Sanderson Farms. This is a landmark for a guy who was bouncing between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tour and that exemption for a few years is a game-changer for any player.

Now, its not automatic that Munoz wins and then immediately starts playing horribly, but I do believe there is a natural exhale when you have a life-changing moment like that. Furthermore, to me this price is over-weighing Munoz’s recent form and after gaining 6.2 SGP, going to a new surface isn’t an ideal situation. On Cauley’s side, I already highlighted how I like him here and he should be set up to perform well at the Safeway. Add in that we get +105 on Cauley and this is a matchup I’m willing to take a shot on.

Lucas Glover -125 vs. Marc Leishman

Let’s start with Marc Leishman. The Aussie has had an awful stretch to close last season, losing strokes off the tee in six straight events. In his last three to close, he lost strokes tee to green and really didn’t show many signs of life. He decided to get his new season started at Greenbrier and was dead last before deciding to withdraw. He cited a bad back, which is worrisome, and clearly his game isn’t in the best shape. It remains to be seen if he is healthy, but there is no denying there are a lot of question marks surrounding Leishman this week.

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Lucas Glover also got his season underway in poor fashion missing the cut against a weak Sanderson Farm field. Glover’s irons were poor, but he continued his good off-tee game, gaining once again and extending that streak to eight-straight events. Glover has played the Safeway every year and has had pretty volatile results with a handful of missed cuts and a pair of top 20’s in recent years. I

’m not concerned about any of that and think Glover is going to be just fine despite the slow start to the season. This specific head-to-head is more a shot of where Leishman is right now than a stellar review of Glover, but I will gladly bet against Leishman until he shows he is healthy and the game is back in form.

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Good luck everyone!

If you have any questions find me in the Awesemo.com premium slack chat or @JazzrazDFS on twitter.

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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