This week, the PGA Tour heads to the Riviera Country Club for arguably the best early-season tournament, the Genesis Invitational. With a strong field of 120 of the world’s top golfers, the Genesis offers a ton of value with a variety of PGA DFS tournaments and opportunities across golf betting markets. Even some of the very best in the sport have reasonable odds for outrights and futures bets.
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the DFS Genesis Invitational Above the Cut which can help you build teams. Now, let’s take a look at what we have on the golf betting side of things.
** When betting PGA outrights, one of the most important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available to you. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across golf betting markets. **
Futures/Outrights Winners
Patrick Cantlay 20-1
Cantlay is a rock-solid player who week after week puts up quality results without missing cuts. Now, that in itself does not make him a must-play in the outright betting market as volatility can be a good thing, but Cantlay is much more than just a cut maker. During this latest made-cut stretch dating back to March 2019, Cantlay finished third twice, second twice and first once, winning at the Memorial. He has been all over leaderboards and there is no reason to think that cannot happen here.
Cantlay took 11th last week at Pebble Beach and his game seems to be in perfect shape heading into this event. He consistently gains on approaches and took 15th and fourth his last two appearances here at the Genesis. Normally we wouldn’t get odds like this on a player like Cantlay, but the strength of the field has pushed down a ton of top-end players for betting outrights. Obviously, dodging guys like Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm at the top is going to be tough, but the odds on Cantlay have me interested given the talent and price we are getting.
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Brooks Koepka 22-1
Like Cantlay, Koepka’s odds are appealing given his talent level. Yes, I know this isn’t a major and Koepka has certainly cooled off, but 22-1 is a price I can get behind. The strength of the field is probably a bonus as Koepka seems to thrive in major-level competition and he shook off some rust with a few starts over on the Euro Tour.
Koepka is always a difficult guy to break down given the disconnect between his major pedigree and the lack of success at regular PGA events. He has four major wins to his name with just seven PGA wins total. I think part of it is just noise as we are going to see Koepka take down plenty of non-majors as well as the larger tournaments. After losing the top OWGR spot to McIlroy, this is a good opportunity to back Koepka at what could be his longest odds of the entire season.
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Top 10
Matthew Fitzpatrick 6-1
I don’t mind Fitzpatrick in the DFS market either, as he makes for an interesting pivot off some of the more reliable options in the same price range. Fitzpatrick is going to get it done despite not being the longest off the tee, which speaks to the rest of his well-rounded game. He is one of the best short-game players out there and should make up for the distance by hitting plenty of fairways and being stout with the irons.
I mentioned this in my DFS Above the Cut article but Fitzpatrick is no stranger to strong fields, as he has been in contention in both Majors and World Golf Championships in the past. He has the talent to take down any field, but I prefer backing him in a top-10 market rather than the outright as I think he is live to get into contention, even if it’s a stretch to see him holding the trophy on Sunday.
Matchup
Jordan Spieth -115 vs. Phil Mickelson
I never thought I would be backing Spieth in a head-to-head given where his game has been lately, but here we are. Both of these guys are coming off positive showings at Pebble Beach where Mickelson nearly won once again and Spieth showed signs of life. It was a welcome sight for to see Spieth’s irons get hot, even if his game isn’t fully back to where it was. If he can continue to gain with the approach, then it is just a matter of time before a big week comes.
On the other side of this matchup, we have Mickelson, who looks to be trying to dispute the notion he is done with two straight third-place finishes. The first one was over on the Euro Tour, but the strong showing at Pebble Beach was eye-opening as well after a bad stretch to close out 2019. Regardless, Mickelson still lost with the irons and I’m not ready to declare him back even if he’s shown some upside in recent weeks. The overreaction to me is too much to have Mickelson in coin flip territory against anyone, Spieth included.
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Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with golf betting, or just looking to dive into it for the first time, be sure to understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year, as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS. You aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but you should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
Good luck everyone!
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