The Winning Element: PGA DFS Picks & Ownership Rankings This Week for The John Deere Classic | Russell Henley

All my PGA DFS picks this week and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material, the John Deere Classic and as always, it is FREE!

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Article Index

• Key/Legend
• Last week recap
• TV schedule and weather update
• My entire player pool
• Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

• Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
• PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
• Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
• Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
• Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
• Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
• Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

Even though Cameron Davis was in my main lineup and a big part of my GPP build, it did not help any when he was paired up with Bryson DeChambeau in every lineup. I had a solid team on FanDuel that got me my money back, which also had DeChambeau, but given his and Webb Simpson’s ownership in small-entry fields almost equaled 100%, 5-for-6 was able to get it done. It helped that it had five golfers finish in the top 25, including Joaquin Niemann and Maverick McNealy.

Check out Jason Rouslin’s expert PGA DFS Value Picks this week for the John Deere Classic.

PGA DFS Picks This Week | John Deere Classic

The Weather

The first two days there is no wind or rain in the forecast until late Friday. That could make for a fun cut line if a storm does roll through. Those storms that are expected to roll in on Friday will likely cause a few problems on Saturday and Sunday.

The Favorites

Brian Harman checks in this week as one of the favorites of the event. Given his form this year and his history at this course, one could assume that he is in a good spot to win again. It would be his first since his pivotal winning putt at the Wells Fargo Championship in May 2017.

Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

• Total expected player pool: 56
• Expected number of lineups created: 200
• Main Lineups:
  • FanDuel $555 and $100
  • DraftKings $200

Sungjae Im ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel)

With Im a lot easier to fit on FanDuel, he will be one of the two main components over there, while Harman will feature on DraftKings. His hot streak should continue here this week as he looks to get into his top form heading into the Olympics.

Russell Henley ($9,900 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel)

Henley will anchor both main lineups. He is a bit more expensive on FanDuel but still fits, providing the ability to play all the favorites this week. Henley has been simmering all summer and has looked close to returning to the winner’s circle. This type of course is tailor-made for his game, as it rewards good approach shots and consistent driving. A runner-up finish last year should give him that last jolt of confidence he needs to get it done.

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Aaron Wise ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)

Patton Kizzire ($8,900 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel)

Utilizing the nice salary dips on FanDuel, these two can be stacked with two higher-priced golfers and two lower-priced golfers to create a solid build of at least four golfers who can win the event. Wise has shown that when his putter is on the rest of his game is good enough to compete at any tournament, including those in which the winner can get to 20 under or better. Kizzire can put up some low numbers with his putting prowess and solid approach game.

Zach Johnson ($8,500 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)

The obvious play has worked out more often than not this year. Johnson has had a solid season, making 16 of 21 cuts and sitting comfortably inside the top 100, ranking 99th in the FedEx Cup. He has not missed a cut in as far back as the data goes.

Steve Stricker ($7,700 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

Stricker is skipping a “major” on the Champions Tour, one that he is the defending champion of and would gain him access to a major on the PGA Tour next year. He decided to forgo that and take his superb form onto the big stage at an event he has won three times. Sure, he is a bit older than the most recent 50-year-old major champion Phil Mickelson, but Stricker does not rely on a long ball like Mickelson. Stricker continues to get it done with superb wedge play and a great putter, something that is rewarded here more than any other spot on tour.

Mito Pereira ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

Pereira’s first PGA Tour starts as a member of the tour did not go as planned, missing the cut and breaking his streak of nine cuts made in a row. That stretch of golf included two wins and two other top-10s, blazing through the Korn Ferry Tour. Both of his wins came at events that required at least 20 under to win, showing scoring is not a problem. In those two events alone, he racked up 50 birdies and two eagles. If that type of scoring returns this week, he will be right there come Sunday.

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Gambles Below $7,000 this week

Harry Higgs ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel)

At first Martin Laird was in this slot, but Higgs’ performance last week was soured by an abysmal 75-yards-and-in game. On four different occasions in the first round he failed to hit the green from those distances, and he also struggled from 200-plus. Neither of those approach yardages should matter as much last week, and the other parts of his approach game looked fine. He earned the spot over Laird because of the better second round last week, and he has the most recent top-10 at the PGA Championship. That was the last good start Laird had as well, so it is just about time for them to both pop up on the leaderboard again.

J.J. Spaun ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

While the last three rounds last week were not nearly as good as his first round, where he gained almost five strokes with his approaches and putter, it is indicative of form being rather close. He has made two straight cuts, both at low-scoring events, and four of his last six. If looking to play Harman, Henley and Johnson in a lineup, then dipping down this far is a must, and Spaun provides some consistency and upside at this price.

Kevin Tway ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel)

The 6-for-18 on made cuts this season does not tell the whole story. Tway did not make a cut from November through February, where he decided to take a two-month hiatus. Since his return, he has teed it up seven times, making the cut in four of them. Even two of his missed cuts were on the number, so a putt here or there and he gets through. In the last three starts, he has been able to gain solidly with his putter, including last week where he gained 1.2 on average. His approach was not great all week, but he did have a one solid round on Saturday in which he gained 1.73, showing that form in that area may not be far behind. He has always been great off the tee, so that should not be an issue this week.

Chalk Zone (Golfers Projected for At Least 10% Ownership)

E= Equal-Weight to projected ownership.

U= Underweight to projected ownership.

O= Overweight to projected ownership.

1. Daniel Berger (U)
2. Cam Davis (U to E)
3. Kevin Streelman (U to E)
4. Alex Noren (E)
5. Si Woo Kim (E)
6. Seamus Power (E to O)
7. Maverick McNealy (E to O)
8. Lucas Glover (U)
9. Hank Lebioda (E)
10. Jhonattan Vegas (E)
11. Doug Ghim (E)
12. Kyle Stanley (E)
13. Harold Varner III (E)
14. Scott Stallings (E to U)

Of these golfers not named Daniel Berger, Kevin Streelman has the highest projected points with 80.0. Check out the rest of the field’s projections here.

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Kevin Na
2. Ryan Moore
3. Dylan Frittelli
4. Beau Hossler
5. Pat Perez
6. Kramer Hickok
7. Keith Mitchell
8. Patrick Rodgers
9. Martin Laird

Even though Ryan Moore is priced at $1,200 cheaper than Kevin Na, Moore is only projected for 0.3 fewer points.

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Doc Redman
2. Sebastian Munoz
3. Charles Howell III
4. Richy Werenski
5. Chez Reavie
6. Tom Lewis
7. Brandon Hagy
8. Satoshi Kodaira
9. Brian Stuard
10. Andrew Putnam

Doc Redman is $300 more expensive than Charles Howell III but trails him in projected points by about 2.4. Howell, projected for 73 points, is the highest projected golfer that is priced under $8,000 this week.

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Sepp Straka
2. Denny McCarthy
3. Hudson Swafford
4. Ben Martin
5. Sam Ryder
6. Cameron Percy
7. Will Gordon
8. Austin Cook
9. Josh Teater
10. Robby Shelton
11. Ryan Brehm
12. Alex Smalley

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