It’s been a few months, but it feels great to type that PGA Tour golf is set to resume. Obviously, so many questions remain, but nonetheless, the Tour thinks they have a plan and schedule in place to salvage the 2020 season. Regardless of what happens, we have the Charles Schwab Challenge on deck this week, set to take place from Fort Worth, Texas.
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For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the DFS Charles Schwab Challenge Above the Cut Article. For now, let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.
Futures/Outrights Winners
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
One of the first things you notice about this field is the strength as almost all the top players in the world are in attendance. This makes the prices in the betting markets approach major level and the numbers we get on world-class players are extremely appealing.
DeChambeau comes in around 25-1 and he was on fire before the Tour had to stop due to COVID. He had three straight top-five finishes and was putting up video game numbers off the tee with his driver. Now, Colonial isn’t a course where off-tee game is ultra-important, but it’s still nice to know he should be in prime position to attack pins. DeChambeau’s game is well rounded and I wouldn’t be surprised if he returns from the layoff in the same form we last saw him.
The course history for DeChambeau is bad, but that is probably why we are getting a quality number in the mid-20s with him. Looking back over his results here, he lost strokes putting in three of four events and that is going to immediately cap your upside at a par 70 track. There is no reason he cannot turn that around and when he does, watch out because DeChambeau is poised to take down any tournament he enters.
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Jason Day 66-1
This is more a number play as Day is too good to be 66-1 in any field, regardless of strength. Like all players, we haven’t seen Day in a few months and his back issues were coming up during the early stretch of the 2020 season. I do not know if the rest helped him, or if these issues are going to flare up anytime he plays. But in an outright market, the risk of withdrawal isn’t a deterrent considering we are backing a guy to win the entire tournament.
Most likely, Day wouldn’t be here without the break as this isn’t a course he usually puts in his yearly schedule. That doesn’t mean he cannot take advantage of this layout as the spraying off the tee should be mitigated by the need to club down at Colonial. If Day can keep it in play off the tee and pepper the greens in regulation, then he’s going to be in position with his abilities with the putter. His world class game around the green seems to have returned given his previous starts this season and that is a key to Day’s success. With all the unknowns surrounding this tournament, it’s a great time to take some shots with guys that we normally wouldn’t see this high and Day is at the top of my list there.
Top 10
Kevin Kisner 7.5/1
If you want to add another bomb to the outright card, Kisner is sitting at 90-1. But that’s going to be a longshot and we can get +750 for Kisner just to crack the top 10 in this event. I will be focusing my energy there as Kisner clearly has the ability to win this tournament.
Kisner won this event back in 2017 and sets up perfectly for what Colonial demands. He isn’t going to overpower courses off the tee and that gels with the conditions he will face here. Furthermore, he is a fantastic bentgrass putter and these greens seem to be in his wheelhouse as he’s gained strokes putting in six straight years here. The strong field is also not a problem as this is a guy who has won a WGC event and contended in majors. Fire up Kisner as a top-10 bet and hope we see that same putter at Colonial.
Matchup
Ryan Palmer (-105) vs. Harris English
There are a ton of matchups available to bet, but with no recent form, it can be difficult to judge where players games are. Live betting certainly will be worth monitoring as the tournament progresses, but there is one matchup I like pre-tournament.
Nobody knows this course better than Palmer as he is a member here and plays the course anytime he is back at home during the PGA Tour season. He plays this event every year and has some quality finishes, including three top 5’s since 2012. The course won’t have grandstands since there are no fans and that should make this resemble the conditions Palmer sees most weeks. Add in that Palmer’s form was quality before the layoff (gained on approach four of last five events) and it is hard to imagine him not making the weekend.
English also found a string of form before the stoppage, but the results to me were slightly inflated by hot short game play. English lost strokes with the irons in three of five events in 2020 and was bailed out by an incredible string of performances around the green. With those inflated results around the green, I lean Palmer here who has more experience than anyone in the field and is just a shade over a pure coin toss in the betting market.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA or just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
