PGA Odds & Betting Breakdown: PGA Championship

It’s been a long time since I could say this, but we are officially ready for the first major of the 2020 PGA Season. It’s been a whirlwind of unprecedented situations, so to get any majors feels like a win. The PGA Championship is set to tee off Thursday from San Francisco’s TPC Harding Park, and the best of the best will all be in attendance. We’ll be breaking down the PGA odds and some of the best wagers to make in the betting markets this week.

For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the PGA Championship Above the Cut Article, which can help you build teams, but let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.


When looking at PGA Outrights the odds can change wildly from book to book which can really impact your bottom line. Make sure to check out OddsShopper in order to see the latest and best odds across books and plenty of other tools that can help you add value when making wagers.


Futures/Outrights Winners 

Patrick Cantlay 30-1 (BetMGM)

There are players that are more likely to take down this championship than Cantlay, but at this price you are getting a great number. Like many guys, Cantlay is searching for that first major, and he has the skillset to handle a Par 70 that may stretch upwards of 7,400 yards.

Cantlay doesn’t have a glaring weakness, and his irons are usually leading the way. He has gained on the approach in every event in 2020, so some of these longer iron shots aren’t going to be an issue. Major-wise, he has some experience contending, with a third last year at the PGA, as well as another top 10 last year at Augusta. Looking across the market, there are a lot of numbers in the mid-20s for Cantlay, so if you have 30-1 available to you, I suggest locking that in.

Tommy Fleetwood 60-1 (DraftKings)

This is one of the many examples of why line shopping is important, as Fleetwood is sitting around 40-1 in a lot of other books. You grab a lot of additional value with this number, and if you are able to close the deal, then the payoff will be that much better with a 60-1 ticket.

Fleetwood was one of the last golfers to return from the break, and he looked a little rusty two weeks ago at the 3M, missing the cut. Last week wasn’t great at St. Jude’s, but since it was a non-cut, he got four rounds and had his best round on Sunday. We know Fleetwood can compete in majors, as he has a runner-up at both The Open and U.S. Open, and that U.S. Open was one of the most difficult tests in recent years. We have questions about Harding Park, but by all accounts, this is expected to be a difficult test, which should favor a guy like Fleetwood. He may not be one of the favorites, but his talent is closer to the top tier than the odds reflect, as his number is five or six times larger than the leaders on the board.

Top 10

Hideki Matsuyama 4-1 (DraftKings)

Not to be too dramatic, but you could argue that Matsuyama was never the same after losing the PGA in 2017 late on Sunday to Justin Thomas. He hasn’t won since that event, and for a guy this talented, a three-year drought is too long. It’s not to say he hasn’t played quality golf for stretches, but his putter and erratic short game has left some wins on the table.

I’ve backed Matsuyama plenty in the outright market over the past few years without success, and although I think he is dangerous, I much prefer a top-10 shot here, sitting around 4-1. This gives us more room to survive what could be another long week on the greens and some upside if Matsuyama brings his A-game. This course should fit his eye, as he can easily deal with long par 4s and challenging conditions, which Harding Park will surely bring. Last week at the WGC, Matsuyama only lost half a stroke putting over the four days, which is actually a big improvement from what we have seen lately. If that continues, then the rest of his game should be able to carry him into contention and give him a shot for another Sunday in contention.

Matchup

Paul Casey (-125) vs Ian Poulter (DraftKings)

Last week we backed Brooks Koepka against Poulter, and it was a rare non-sweat bet. Certainly, it’s a lot easier backing Koepka against Poulter than it is Casey, but the same principles apply to this matchup and have me wanting to short Poulter in this spot.

First, let’s talk about Casey, who is rising quickly in the list of most frustrating golfers on the planet. He found himself dead last after 36 holes last week, and even though he put two under-par rounds together on the weekend, it was a terrible display once again with his putter. It’s impossible to succeed if you cannot chip or putt, and that is clearly the big issue here. As bad as that is, we still know Casey’s ball striking is quality, and this course is going to put an emphasis on iron play, which is the strength of Casey’s game.


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We talked about Poulter riding an insanely hot putter last week and mentioned how it was eventually going to regress. That is partly why we shorted him. He ended up losing five strokes on the greens, which is also an outlier, but shows how variant putting can be. His off-tee game was terrible, losing 3.5 strokes, and that is something that isn’t likely to change anytime soon. This course could play quite long if they decide to stretch it out, and that will put tremendous strain on the weak part of Poulter’s game, which is his driving abilities.

Quick PGA Odds Notes

If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.

On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.


Related PGA Odds and DFS Content

 

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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