We get a change of pace this week as the Tour heads to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational. This is a World Golf Championship, which means that we have a much smaller field of just 78 to break down, and all the players will be guaranteed four rounds. This takes the drama out of Friday cut sweats, but also gives you a lot more opportunities to make up ground after a slow start. On the PGA odds and betting side, this presents a great opportunity for live betting, as well as a market that will be offering quality numbers on world-class players.
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your PGA DFS lineups, make sure to read the FedEx St. Jude Classic Above the Cut Article, but for now let’s take a look at what PGA picks we have on the betting side of things.
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Futures/Outrights Winners & PGA Odds
Rory McIlroy 12-1
I usually don’t bet guys at this short of price, but in a WGC format it’s a situation I like. McIlroy sits at a reasonable 12-1, and that’s probably due to him not closing any of the events post restart. You can look at his results and say it isn’t good enough, which is why he is no longer No. 1 in the World Ranking, but you can also still take plenty of positives from his recent form.
McIlroy still crushes off the tee and his short game is actually underrated. Around TPC Southwind scrambling is going to be key, as the overall greens-in-regulation numbers aren’t high. Being able to work in and out of trouble is going to make the difference, and McIlroy has gained around the green in seven of his last eight events. His wedges have to be better, as his inability to take advantage of the punishing drives has limited the results. I also don’t mind waiting on McIlroy, and if he starts a little slow, you can steal some value with boosted PGA odds, as he will have plenty of time with the guaranteed four rounds to move up the leaderboard.
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Another guy towards the top of the PGA odds, Schauffele has already proven that he can with against fields like this with a Tour Championship and a WGC victory on the resume. He comes into the event with three straight top-20 finishes, and if not for a cold putter at Memorial, he easily could have been in contention.
The big stat that helps Schauffele is his ability to drive the ball while not sacrificing distance. He is towards the top in total driving, a combination of driving distance and accuracy and a metric that makes a lot of sense on this course. His putter is the total wildcard, as he needs to make more putts, but as we talk about often, that is the case for most guys on Tour. I am not saying Schauffele belongs in the McIlroy category in terms of odds, but you are getting almost double the price, which is enough for me to put him on the betting card this week.
Top Five
Rickie Fowler +1000
Fowler has been all over the place, not just from event to event but from round to round. He was straight terrible Thursday at Memorial with an 81 and then rebounded with a stellar 68 on Friday. That still wasn’t good enough to find the weekend, and we haven’t seen him since.
His form worries me a bit, but I like this par-70 track for Fowler because he will have options off the tee on many of these holes. Long term, he still should be viewed as an elite putter and short-game player, and with four rounds he will have more time to recover from mistakes. There is no coming back from shooting 81 here or at any other course, but I still think the ceiling is intact, which has me interested in a top-five wager.
Matchup
Brooks Koepka (-145) vs. Ian Poulter
Koepka is a decent favorite here against Poulter, but I still was surprised when I saw just -145 for this head-to-head matchup. We are talking about a world-class player who, while struggling, is still in a different class of talent compared to Poulter. There is no doubt there are some legitimate concerns with Koepka’s knee and his overall game, but at the same time there are a lot of positives to draw on.
Looking over the recent results for Koepka, he missed a pair of cuts and a 62nd, which isn’t going to get anyone excited. He wasn’t sharp at Muirfield Village, but it was sloppy around the green at Memorial, which caused him to miss that cut. Last week he gained just north of five strokes tee to green but couldn’t buy a bucket with the putter with 5.1 strokes lost putting. He now transitions to his preferred surface in Bermuda and goes to a course where he is the defending champion.
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On the other side is Poulter, who is playing quality golf, even though a lot of it is due to a hot putter. Poulter has gained strokes putting in every single event this year, and while that’s unsustainable, it doesn’t mean it will automatically flip this week. The problem is his tee-to-green game hasn’t been great lately, and he comes into this week having lost off the tee in five of his last six. That is going to put tremendous pressure on the short game, and if that doesn’t hold up, he could be relegated to the bottom half of this leaderboard come Sunday.
Koepka needs a good finish and should be focused, as next week we turn the page towards the first major of the season. Even with the struggles, I comfortably back him here and think he should be able to get the best of Poulter in this spot, even if everything isn’t firing.
Quick PGA Odds Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the PGA betting markets.
