We have finished the regular season on the PGA Tour and that means the FedEx Cup playoff run is set to begin. This is the PGA Tour’s version of the postseason with shrinking field sizes until someone is crowned the FedEx Cup champion and takes home a monster payday. To kick things off we have a 125-person field set to battle it out at TPC Boston, which is a staple of the FedEx cup rotation.
TPC Boston had been an annual stop on the playoff schedule since 2007, but with the TOUR changing from four tournaments down to three, it now is played every other year, so we haven’t seen a tournament here since 2018.
Since last week was the last opportunity to grab some points, we saw a weak field and a lot of no-name players in the mix. Jim Herman ended up winning and that in itself shows how anyone could win and a lot of guys improved their position heading into this week. The big boys are all back and this resembles a major with all the top end talent to choose from. On the betting side, this means quality numbers on legit golfers, but keep in mind the level of competition they are facing.
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Futures/Outrights Winners
Dustin Johnson 22-1 (DraftKings)
In picking outrights it’s not just about who you think is going to win, but, more importantly, evaluating them against their price. Guys like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy to me are more dangerous to win this event than DJ, but I cannot back them with their prices in the low- to mid-teens. On the other hand, Johnson sits at 22-1 on DraftKings, which gives us a fantastic price for a guy who I don’t need to tell you has tournament-winning upside every week.
The PGA Championship was a great showing for DJ if you consider how poor he looked a few weeks earlier at the Memorial and 3M. However, it was another runner-up finish at a major and seeing Dustin still with just one major on the resume is alarming with how good he is. None of that matters this week and we now know the game is in form and DJ is ready to roll into the playoff stretch. He leaned hard on the putter at Harding Park, which is atypical, but here he should use his advantage off the tee to really set up a ton of birdie chances. At 22-1, I think this is worth a position rather than banking on one of the favorites whose odds are just a little too short for me this week.
Patrick Cantlay 35-1 (DraftKings)
With such a strong field you are going to be able to take some world-class players at odds that are normally reserved for major-type events. That’s the case here with Cantlay, who is 35-1 at DraftKings … and that is a number I would have interest in against any field at pretty much any course.
Looking over the recent form we see Cantlay making cuts as he always does, but not really competing late on Sunday. The ball striking has been average at best and we are really just waiting for the irons to return to a top-end level. I don’t see anything concerning in the stats in terms of a major red flag, and that speaks to the well-rounded nature of his game. In his last appearance at this course in 2018, Cantlay gained five strokes with the irons and was held back by a bad short game and putter, which kept the finish from standing out.
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Top 10
Viktor Hovland 5-1
This field is loaded with guys who have experience in the FedEx Cup and at this tournament, but that doesn’t mean the young guns can’t compete. Hovland will be playing deep into the playoffs for the next decade, but this is his first attempt here at TPC Boston. Ideally, I would want my players to have seen a course several times, but that isn’t going to deter me from backing Hovland here.
Looking at the stats, we see a weird reversal in recent weeks as the putter finally heated up, only to see the ball striking come down. At the PGA, we saw Hovland gain 4.9 strokes putting, which was his best ever in events that have strokes gained data, but unfortunately the ball striking wasn’t there. Earlier during the restart, he had a string of events where he gained 10-plus strokes tee to green, so we know how deadly he can be when dialed in. This is more of a buy early and hope that the ball striking returns and he can maintain some of the progress on the short game. This course will allow him to be aggressive off the tee, and when he’s on, there are few guys I’d rather have than Hovland.
Matchup
Matt Kuchar -130 vs Brendan Todd
We head to the matchup market here as there are a bunch of individual matchups to breakdown if you are looking for less volatility and more of a grind-it-out type wager. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player and you can take several H2Hs with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
The matchup I’m going to here has Matt Kuchar hoping to find some form late in the year against Brendan Todd, who has had a huge showing during this 2020 campaign. Todd hasn’t been able to finish a few tourneys where he was in contention late on Sunday, but it’s still a massive step for a guy who, for a while, looked completely hopeless to make a cut.
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Kuchar needs to get back to striking the irons like he normally does as he has been average at best since the restart. The putter has stayed hot as he has gained in five of six events after the break, so we really are banking on getting a little more out of the ball striking. This course should allow him to attack these holes in a variety of ways and still get some short irons in his hand, which is a strength. The stock is depressed because of the poor form and that is why we even have a matchup like this.
On the other side, we have Todd whose stock is still near premium with the string of form he has displayed. It seems like that is about to come crashing down as the putter wasn’t carrying him at the Wyndham and he was unable to make the weekend. At the WGC and PGA Championship, Todd gained six and seven strokes putting and that is why the finishes look so good. Both of these guys have similar issues to their game right now, but to me, Todd’s stock is inflated while Kuchar is in a buy-low spot. I’ll gladly lay -130 on Kuchar, who I think is a different caliber of player despite the pretty poor restart for him in 2020.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA or just looking to dive into it for the first time make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you really hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side we have H2H bets, which naturally are more like cash games or H2Hs in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Just getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
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