After another great PGA week, we head up to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Conn. for the 2020 Travelers Championship. Once again, we have a loaded field that draws most of the big names on Tour looking to shake off the rust and rack up more FedEx cup points. These strong fields bring fantastic PGA betting opportunities as the value and outright odds on top-end players can give you a major returns if you can find a winner.
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the DFS Travelers Championship Above the Cut Article which can help you build teams. For now, let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.
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Futures/Outrights Winners
Dustin Johnson 28-1
It seemed like last week saw major rallies from a handful of top players on the weekend, which set the stage for them this week. Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas both got into contention late on Sunday, but don’t forget about Johnson who quietly got into form. He gained 8.5 strokes with ball striking and wasn’t able to get in the mix only due to losing 1.8 with his short game. In a shootout like that where he needed to go north of -20, there was no way to hang in without making putts.
The positive of this is Johnson is now flying a bit under the radar as he really hasn’t been in contention much since last year. But we know he has win equity every time he’s in the field. Now he comes to a course with a poa/bent mix on the greens which is definitely a boost over Bermuda when looking at his putting splits. If his ball striking stays where it was last week, there is no reason Johnson shouldn’t be in the mix, pending he can make a few putts. Unlike the other big names, we find his odds north of 25-1 and that is where the value comes in. This was the first guy I backed in the outright market this week and love that we get a proven winner at this price.
Viktor Hovland 60-1
The talent in this field is strong, but as I mentioned earlier, that means we can target quality golfers in ranges where we don’t usually see them outside of majors. Hovland is a perfect example of this as 60-1 is a gigantic number regardless of who else is in attendance. The Norwegian already has a win this year, although it was at the less prestigious Puerto Rico open, but getting that breakthrough should set the stage for bigger wins.
Stats-wise, Hovland’s game is easy to breakdown as he is an incredible ball striker and a god-awful short game player. In 2020 he has six events that record strokes gained data and the split difference is massive. He gained off the tee and with the irons in five of six, while he lost around the green in five of six and with the putter in four of six tournaments. This has capped the upside as getting up and down and holing putts are critical regardless of the course.
Honestly, there isn’t much to suggest Hovland is going to magically turn that around, but the variance is higher in those categories which is why I still can back him here. He should be able to be more aggressive at River Highlands than he was at Heritage and his ability to go low can translate into massive upside in any field.
Top 10
Brian Harman 6/1
I have seen 90-1 in the outright market floating around for Harman, which is a number I wouldn’t mind backing if you want a massive potential payout. Still, this is a guy who is more consistent and that means we can look to something like a top-10 at very reasonable 6-1 odds. Harman has found the weekend in nine of his last 10 starts and his game seems to have little rust coming out of the COVID break.
Off the tee is where the struggles come in, but these short par-70 tracks are where we see the best version of Harman. He isn’t reliant on distance, he is a clutch putter and he closed last week with a bogey-free 65 on Sunday. He comes to a course he has seen every year and owns sixth-, eighth- and third-place finishes since 2015. There is no reason to expect he won’t continue his quality play at a course that appeals to his game and 6-1 is just too much for a top-10 here.
Matchup
Byeong Hun An (-110) vs. Kevin Na
This is another week with a bunch of head-to-heads that are worth considering, plus the three-ball matchups that are going to give you better prices on your wagers. Round-by-round betting will also become more appealing once we dig into the course and see how some guys choose to attack it. I backed An already in a matchup with Na at a standard -110 price.
Both players have legit concerns that you could point to as An hasn’t started his return to golf in great form. He struggled on the weekend at Charles Schwab and then was never in contention last week with a missed cut by miles at Heritage. Stats-wise, it was pretty weak across the board, but his putter still stands out as a serious problem with -3.3 and -6.3 strokes gained in the last two weeks. The change of surface can only help things and the ball striking should normalize, which will get An back in form and through to the weekend. This is a head-to-head so we are looking for a floor rather than pure upside, and also have to take into account who the matchup is against.
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Na has reasonable questions coming into this event as well. The biggest one has to be his health as he was clearly hurt at Charles Schwab, missed the cut and then didn’t play last week. His back can be a nagging issue and it remains to be seen if he will be limited at all this week. Regardless of health, Na has more boom/bust to his game, which is great for outrights, but not great in this type of wager.
Na grabbed a few wins in 2019 which speaks to the upside, but also misses more cuts than you would think for a multiple-time winner. Just looking at 2020 form speaks to that as Na has three missed cuts to go along with three top-20 finishes in just eight starts. At -110, I feel much more comfortable in An’s game at this course and think we may see another missed cut in Na’s return to golf in 2020.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA or just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
