PGA Odds & Betting Breakdown: Wyndham Championship

We have our first major in the books, but there is no time to waste as the PGA Tour season rolls on. We have the FedEx cup playoffs starting next week and more majors to follow, but this week we head to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship. This is always an event that brings drama even if it is not one of the marquee stops during the season. It is the last opportunity to rack up FedEx cup points, and in a normal year that would mean careers and Tour cards are on the line which is as pressure packed as it gets.

On the betting front an event like this is totally different from what we saw last week. There aren’t that many top-end names, so everyone’s odds will look and feel shorter compared to a major. The good news is the win equity is much wider up and down the field, and that can lead to some big time numbers being cashed if a long shot breaks through.

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Futures/Outright Winners

Ryan Moore 40-1 (DraftKings)

I already mentioned that I think we could see a long-shot winner this week, so I am starting my card with a 40-1 shot in Ryan Moore. Normally Moore would be closer to 100-1 to win a PGA event, but the strength of this field has him down to 40-1. I am still interested because of the lack of win equity up top and the course which suits exactly what Moore wants to do.

Strokes gained approach is always a key stat, but at the Wyndham it is even more important. Golfers are able to club down off the tee, and then it is just a ball-striking competition, so expect a lot of darts being thrown this week. Moore was sixth in his last appearance here in 2018, and over his last five starts at this track, he gained with the irons in every single one. That type of ball striking will give him a shot to contend, and he is going to be a key piece of both my betting and DFS lineups.

Joaquin Niemann 65-1 (FanDuel)

This is an event that is going to require some low numbers, so we need guys who have that mindset to rack up birdies. Niemann is still a young gun on Tour, but it’s already apparent that he is built for shootouts like this. When he won at Greenbrier, he finished at -21, and that’s the type of winning score we see around here.

Niemann has two appearances here under his belt with respectable 33rd- and 13th-place finishes. Stats-wise, he ranks eighth on Tour in strokes gained on approach, which is going to give him a ton of birdie looks each and every week. This course is exactly the type of track that will suit Niemann, and if his putter gets hot, it’s going to be a massive showing.

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Top 10

Kevin Kisner 5-1 (DraftKings)

Last week Kisner didn’t really get in contention at the PGA, but he still put together a quality 19th-place finish. Statistically, it was a typical Kisner performance with a flat zero strokes gained off the tee, but he absolutely dialed in irons and putting. He gained 4.9 on the approach and 5.1 with the flat stick, and that is one of the most lethal combos you can have. If he is able to replicate that this week, he is going to be in the mix.

Kisner has two top 10s in his last three appearances at this course, but more important than the results is knowing his skill set matches this course. He isn’t going to be challenged off the tee, and we just saw at Harding Park he can make his share of putts, which is going to be needed when trying to go low all four rounds. Kisner is sitting in that 40-1 range in the outright market, which I do not mind, but 5-1 on a top 10 is also a reasonable position. He comes in playing well, and at a course like this which fits his game, he’s another player to keep an eye on this week.

Matchup

Dylan Frittelli (-126) vs. Tom Lewis

We head to the matchup market here, as there are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you want something with a little less upside but a much easier path to cash. Unlike outrights, this isn’t about pure ceiling, as we are just looking to have a solid showing and beat another golfer rather than the entire field.

First up in this matchup is Frittelli, who comes in with three straight made cuts, including last week at the PGA. More importantly, his stats are very solid with strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach both consistently positive in recent weeks. If he can continue that performance tee to green, he is going to set himself up for another made cut and possibly a big week if the putter comes along.

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On the other side of the matchup, we have Tom Lewis, who is a perpetual GPP/outright target with the way he can get going. A few weeks ago at the WGC, he was +3 heading into the weekend and fired off 15 birdies in two days to finish runner-up to Justin Thomas. That speaks to the upside, but at the same time this is an incredibly inconsistent player who is going to miss a lot of weekends with the erratic play. His off-tee game is strong right now, but you cannot just lean on that at Sedgefield and be successful. With the rest of the stats all over the place, I love shorting him in head-to-heads, as it is possible he will start slow and be unable to even find the weekend here.

Quick Notes

If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.

On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.