The PGA Tour presents another strong field as they head to south for the WGC-Mexico Championship from Club de Golf Chapultepec, which is located on the outskirts of Mexico City. Since this is a WGC, that means a smaller field and a no cuts, but on the bright side, the betting market is loaded with top-end guys to breakdown. We have only seen this course since 2017 so we have only a few years of course history to go off of.
Futures/Outrights Winners
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
Last week, DeChambeau was fantastic at Genesis and gained 10.6 strokes tee to green in route to the fifth-place finish. There is no doubt the work DeChambeau has put in trying to up his off-tee game, and it is starting to pay off. He would be even more dangerous if he would ever find his putting stroke. He has shown he can rip of strings of wins on tour in a short period of time and I think he will find the winners circle early in 2020.
Last year at this course, DeChambeau struggled, which was not surprising considering his style. There is nobody that I can think of that would be more impacted by altitude and that is something that could be improved in his second start here at Chapultepec. He also lost 4.9 stroke putting here last year so the Poa greens are another obstacle that he needs to overcome. I have no doubt that DeChambeau’s game is in good shape and 25-1 for him in a 72-man field is an appealing spot. There are reasonable questions of how he will respond to this course the second time around, but the upside is there and the odds are enough for me to take a position.
Brandt Snedeker 80-1
Snedeker is a longshot at 80-1. He is coming in off two straight missed cuts and there are some realistic concerns about where his game is. That, however, doesn’t impact his ceiling and there are some positives to point to despite the recent form.
The first major thing to point out is that Snedeker is a world-class putter and has shown time and time again he isn’t bothered on Poa greens. This course has some elements of a putting contest and there are few who can get hotter with the flat stick then Snedeker. His course history checks out even though it was just one appearance in 2017 where Snedeker finished seventh. In that event, he gained across the board including 4.1 strokes putting. This upside is enough for a splash on a guy nearing triple digits in the outright market. On the DFS side, he is a volatile mid-range play which is why I was more drawn to him in the betting market.
Top 10
Paul Casey +250
Casey was another guy that fell victim to Riviera on the greens, as he lost 3.5 strokes gained putting and another 3.4 around the green. Naturally, that prevented a top-end finish and wasted what was a fantastic week for Casey off the tee and with the irons. Still, we can take the positives knowing that Casey is striking it well and it is a matter of time before he puts it all together.
We have seen Casey every year at this event and the results have been quality with a third, 12th and 16th over the last three years. He gained significantly tee to green every start here and that should continue with his recent form and his experience at the course. We are only getting 5-2 on a top-10 here, but the 72-man field will contribute to the smaller numbers in the betting market and that is enough value for me to have exposure.
Matchup
Bryson DeChambeau -120 vs. Collin MorikawaÂ
I rarely like to back a guy in the outright betting market and also have exposure to him in head-to-heads, but that is the case here with DeChambeau. I already mentioned how well he played at Genesis and that this is his second appearance here with plenty of room for improvement.
On the other side of this matchup is Collin Morikawa, who after a slow start was able to get in the mix and finish 26th last week. He leaned on the approach once again and there is no arguing this is one the best iron players on tour. However, this is Morikawa’s first appearance at this WGC and I’ve mentioned how I think having played here is a boost. If the irons are a little off, the rest of Morikawa’s short game isn’t top quality and that could test him in some different ways this week. With DeChambeau just a slight -120 favorite, I will be going there and may look to fade Morikawa in other matchups depending on who else he is matched up against in betting markets.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA, or just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of them as large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS. You aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but you should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
Good luck everyone!
Hello, new to DFS where is the premium content. I do have a membership. THANKS