The Winning Element PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Allocations for the PGA Championship

The full week of PGA DFS analysis leading up to the PGA Championship reaches its culmination here with the Winning Element. After all of the articles, videos and Awesemo’s industry-leading daily fantasy golf projections, here we can break down the golfers that will make DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for this week’s major.

[GOLDRUSH]

For more of our free PGA DFS picks, be sure to check out our DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets that use Awesemo’s lineup optimizer to find the best value plays and top-end studs for the week. If you’re looking to get more PGA action down this week, see all of the Awesemo expert PGA betting picks before making your bets.

I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.

Article Index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
  • PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
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Last Week’s Recap

It is rare that all my core players make the cut and I still do not have a very profitable week. The decision to go to Bryson DeChambeau over Daniel Berger cost me some money, and not being nearly high enough on K.H Lee capped the upside. But I was able to get inside the cash line with my biggest lineup, so it was a slightly negative week — down about 5%. I will look to get back on the GPP track by maxing out the $20 millionaire maker this week. We aren’t crazy enough to max enter a $4,444 … yet.


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Expected Weather

At the beginning of the week, there was basically no projected wind. But as the week moves on and the days arrive, all of a sudden there’s a constant 20 mph breeze. Now, that isn’t expected to come back until Friday afternoon around noon. Sadly, that may create a bit of a weather draw, as the course’s primary defense is the wind. At least in my biggest-dollar lineups this week, I’ll try and feature plenty of that stack, especially golfers that are teeing off on the back nine on Friday morning.

**Pro Tip: By rostering golfers from the p.m./a.m. wave, you get an early cut sweat on Friday. For all of you that love to get the heart racing nice and early, it’s a great tactic to use.

PGA Championship Favorites

It is a major, so all of the favorites are here. Some of them are out of favor with the gamers this week, and in Patrick Cantlay’s case, they may be out of form as well. Collin Morikawa will look to make it 2-for-2 in PGA Championships to start his career and is also coming in projected lower than 10%. I will have at least double that in GPPs and get him on one of the bigger-dollar buy-ins. Jordan Spieth is arguably playing the best golf in the world right now, having only finished outside the top 10 once, all the way back at The Players Championship almost two months ago. He even managed a top-10 coming back from his first start after getting COVID.

Then comes Brian Harman, who has been others’ favorite more so than mine, but he comes in at a great value price this week. He is projected for around 15%, and I will likely have him in that and also roster him in one of five big-dollar lineups.

Lastly, Spieth, Cantlay and Harman all are in the p.m./a.m. wave, with Cantlay and Spieth starting on No. 10 on Friday morning. Morikawa is in the a.m./p.m. wave.

PGA Championship PGA DFS Picks

  • Total player pool: 62
  • Expected number of lineups created: 300

Justin Thomas ($11,300 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel)

Thomas has been very good tee to green. His putter, on the other hand, not so much. But these greens are going to play on the easier side this week, which should help negate some of the speed issues he has been having and reduce the three-putts. If he gets in a grove, Thomas can be dominant, and his ownership is still projected at around 10% this week.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 8:33 a.m.
  • Round 2: 1:58 p.m.
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Xander Schauffele ($9,600 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel)

I typically like to go against the field a couple of times, but that hasn’t paid off in majors. If you have been able to follow the content this week, you have likely heard me talk about the Masters-winning millionaire-maker lineup and having a ton of chalk in his lineup. The same will work this week, and finding that lower-owned stud that can come in the top five will be pivotal. It doesn’t even have to be below 5% either; something in the 5 to 10% range will do the trick.

Now, I say all this because I don’t mind playing a lot of chalk outside of those golfers. Schauffele is one area of chalk worth going overweight this week. He has done everything one could ask for in a major except for winning one, and he has done everything outside of winning a golf tournament in the last couple of years. Luckily, though, his price is the cheapest it has been in a major in quite some time, and he only needs a top-five to pay it off, something he’s done a number of times in majors over the last few years.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 8:25 a.m.
  • Round 2: 1:50 p.m.

Viktor Hovland ($9,300 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) 

If he hits 75% of his greens this week, he will win. His putting has turned a corner, his driving is elite, his approach game — especially from a longer distance — is one of the best, and he has been playing well recently. Those are all great signs this week. The only thing is how highly owned he will get. If there doesn’t end up being a significant weather draw, Hovland would be one of the top picks to win the tournament outside of Spieth and Thomas.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 8:25 a.m.
  • Round 2: 1:50 p.m.

Cameron Smith ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel)

A product of a little bit of an overprice on DraftKings, Smith is going to be a primary target for me on FanDuel, and likely will have some of my highest allocations over there. The same goes for Scottie Scheffler ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) as I am relatively high on both of them but drift to other players in their range on DraftKings given their price. They both will anchor my FanDuel lineup while playing them slightly over the field in DraftKings GPPs.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 1:36 p.m.
  • Round 2: 8:11 a.m.

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Abraham Ancer ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel)

The second of five chalky golfers (including Hovland) worth buying into this week, Ancer has everything necessary to succeed at this golf course — a good short game, a great approach game from 170 to 220 yards and steadiness off the tee that is sure to find much more rollout this week than others. Sure, he is the highest-projected golfer, but for a good reason, as he’s coming into this week off of back-to-back top-fives on courses that one would deem far too long for him.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 12:52 p.m.
  • Round 2: 7:27 a.m.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel)

Niemann is the third of five chalky golfers to make a big part of builds this week. He benefits from a windier setup and one of the lowest ball flights on tour, so his expected runout is great this week. He had his driver on display at the Tournament of Champions, flying it no more than 250 yards but using the contours of the course to pump out massive drives. He will use that creative again here this week, and now he just needs about 11 or 12 greens a day to get through to the weekend. Once there, he has shown the ability to move up the leaderboard quickly. He is worth shares regardless of ownership.

Tee Times:

  • Round 1: 1:36 p.m.
  • Round 2: 7:44 a.m.

Marc Leishman ($7,600 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

Leishman said in an interview that this course might be one of his best chances at a major and that he loves the setup, but even if he had not said that, I would have thought it. Wider fairways, especially in his landing zones, and firm and fast conditions fit Leishman to a T. It is the style of golf he grew up on and one that he feels most comfortable with. So there is no need to fade him, as he is in a good stretch of form and not carrying a lot of ownership.

  • Round 1: 7:27 a.m.
  • Round 2: 12:52 p.m.
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Sam Burns ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel)

Burns is the fifth and final chalky golfer to buy into. He has a first and second in his last two starts, as compared to Corey Conners’ 43rd and 21st, which seems like a no-brainer. And their ownership looks to be equal, so I’ll pile onto Burns and ride the hot streak.

  • Round 1: 12:52 p.m.
  • Round 2: 7:27 a.m.

Matt Wallace ($7,400/$8,900)

Wallace is looking at seven straight made cuts at majors, a good attitude and a PGA Tour card on the horizon. That stretch includes only one missed cut at The Honda Classic, four top-20s and two top-10s. Also, he seems to be a good pivot off of Keegan Bradley, who is projecting to be about double the ownership for virtually the same price. There is just $100 difference between the two.

  • Round 1: 8:55 a.m.
  • Round 2: 2:20 p.m.

Fringe Golfers Below $7,400

There aren’t necessarily standouts here for me, at least none that will be getting enough GPP ownership to be worth mention as part of my core, but I understand that we need a few players to fill in lineups with golfers above. I will put my top 10 GPP exposures of golfers under $7,400 here instead.

  1. Keegan Bradley
  2. Harris English
  3. Si Woo Kim
  4. Matt Jones
  5. Jason Kokrak
  6. Stewart Cink
  7. Charl Schwartzel
  8. Wyndham Clark
  9. Thomas Pieters
  10. Cameron Davis

Chalk Zone (Golfers Projected For At Least 10% Ownership) 

  1. Jon Rahm (E to U)
  2. Bryson DeChambeau (U)
  3. Webb Simpson (U)
  4. Will Zalatoris (E)
  5. Daniel Berger (E to U)
  6. Tony Finau (E)
  7. Tyrrell Hatton (U)
  8. Brian Harman (E)

Fringe (10-15% of Lineups)

*= in a bigger dollar lineup.

  1. Rory McIlroy*
  2. Dustin Johnson
  3. Hideki Matsuyama
  4. Patrick Reed*
  5. Sungjae Im
  6. Tommy Fleetwood
  7. Louis Oosthuizen
  8. Adam Scott
  9. Shane Lowry*
  10. Paul Casey
  11. Gary Woodland*
  12. Bubba Watson
  13. Matt Jones
  14. Jason Kokrak
  15. Charley Hoffman

Alternates (5-10% of Lineups)

  1. Cameron Champ
  2. Ryan Palmer
  3. Kevin Na
  4. Cameron Davis
  5. Sergio Garcia
  6. Billy Horschel
  7. Aaron Wise
  8. Justin Rose
  9. Matthew Fitzpatrick
  10. Max Homa
  11. Carlos Ortiz

Holes In One (1-5% of Lineups)

  1. Sebastian Munoz
  2. Francesco Molinari
  3. Sam Horsfield
  4. Phil Mickelson
  5. Sam Horsfield
  6. J.T Poston
  7. Aaron Rai
  8. Branden Grace
  9. Russell Henley

Be sure to tune in for PGA Live Before Lock, which airs at 8 p.m. ET, as I’ll be joining the crew for the later part of the show for the Awesemo PGA Championship Roundtable! A rapid-fire who to play and who not play!


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

[PGAPAGE].

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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