Against the Grain: PGA DFS Picks for the Half Million Dollar Contest | WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP WGC-FedEx St. Jude picks for PGA DFS. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.


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Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week

First, let’s take a look at the winning lineup from last week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker Contest

So when something happens once, it’s bound to happen again, right? Well, this week, something crazier happened, and it was because of a birdie on the 72nd hold by Richy Werenski, giving him the exact same amount of points as Charles Howell III, who was also the exact same salary. This caused a three-way tie for first with two gamers having the same lineup and the other having Howell instead of Werenski. So yes, user “Dr brad” lost $600,000 on that Werenski birdie. Also, crazy enough, two of the three lineups were again single bullets, while the other was an MME user of 105 entries.

Picks Review

  • Top-end pick: Was right to fade Koepka and play the Finau chalk? But not the Casey Fleetwood chalk.
  • Value: List (Top 30)
  • Mid-level pick: Lewis (Top 25)
  • Low-level pick: Ernst (MC)

Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for WGC FedEx St. Jude Classic  

For the full list, click here.


Player Focus This Week

This week features 78 golfers with all of the golfers playing all four rounds.

$10,000 and Above

  • Five Golfers
  • Total ownership of around 85%

Commentary

Five of the world’s best are in this field, maybe not by OWGR but certainly in terms of talent. Jon Rahm sees a colossal price bump from the low $9,000s to the highest-priced golfer in the field. That should get him around 15% ownership, with Rory McIlroy is trending to be the highest-owned of the week. Bryson DeChambeau, off of his “hulk-smash” of a job on 12 at The Memorial, will look to bounce back on a course he really hasn’t played well since turning pro. Those couple of things may keep his ownership below that of Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay, who I expect to come in north of 15% but probably not that much above 20%.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

DeChambeau may end up getting closer to 10% when this is all said and done come Thursday morning. With that being said, I’m having a hard time going triple on him, so I’ll try and use him in a three-entry max or single-entry contest where I know he’ll likely be under 10% owned.

$8,000-$9,999

  • 20 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 250%

Commentary

WGC events always give us a stacked price section here as all of the golfers are typically some of the best in the world. Xander Schauffele has been back and forth between $10,000 and this spot here, almost rotating at times with Cantlay. He’s going to get a similar type of ownership that Cantlay and Thomas have, around 20%. Webb Simpson is trending in that same direction, but not as much, while Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama are looking like they will be around 15% owned this week. Tyrrell Hatton, in just his third start back since the restart, is likely to get similar ownership to Reed and Matsuyama, around 15%. Then there is a patch of 12-15% owned golfers, including:

  • Gary Woodland
  • Viktor Hovland 
  • Tony Finau
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Daniel Berger
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick

That leaves with us eight candidates for less than 10% ownership. I think there’s a good enough sense that two of them will be Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia. Other names that could be under 10% include:

  • Jason Day 
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Billy Horschel
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Abraham Ancer  

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

Getting at least one of the guys from each of the bulleted list should provide a nice bit a positive variance and a much better chance at a unique lineup. Spieth coming in off his best finish in a month — and a good finish here last year — is, of course, appealing to me. Others may look to Billy Horschel, who also is in form and has a good history here.


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$7,000s

  • 16 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 140%

Commentary

As packed as the above section is, this one gets thin pretty quickly with only 16 total golfers. Still, about 10% per golfer will be given here, with plenty of attention at the top side. Sungjae Im and Paul Casey are the cheapest prices they’ve been in quite some time. So are Matt Kuchar and Marc Leishman, for that matter. I suspect all of those guys will get over 10%, as will Adam Hadwin and Joaquin Niemann. Max Homa is also coming off a great start at the 3M Open and should generate a lot of interest, as should Ian Poulter, who always projects lower but ends up becoming chalk quite a bit. There will be a bit of a drop-off after Poulter with the rest of the golfers in this section getting pretty close to 5%, including:

  • Matthew Wolff
  • Kevin Na
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Bubba Watson
  • Danny Willett
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Michael Thompson 

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

If you are a believer in momentum, then Michael Thompson has to be the play. If you believe that a win like that, after seven years, is too big of a mental toll, then someone else off that bulleted list paired with Spieth/Horschel should provide nice leverage.

$6,000s

  • 33 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 130%

Commentary

The rest of the field is below $7,000 this week, which is a total of 33 golfers. A total of around 130% ownership is coming from here, so close to 5% average per player. With plenty of golfers getting below 3%, there will be some chalkier golfers. Some of the higher-owned ones here are Brendon Todd, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Wallace, Shane Lowry, Ryan Palmer and Byeong Hun An. Joel Dahmen and his rock-bottom price will get some attention as well, along with Chez Reavie, who is in good form. Like anyone else in this section? Then it should be quite easy for you to get some good leverage, especially since the golfers are guaranteed four rounds. The risk appetite can undoubtedly be higher.

For a little bit more talk on this subject, check out my “Against the Grain” Podcast on your favorite podcast provider!


Related PGA Content

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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