Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers PGA DFS picks for the BMW Championship. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel and DraftKings. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.
PGA DFS Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week
If I had to copy a GPP strategy from any one lineup each and every week, it would be this one. Seventy percent ownership with less than $50,000 salary used has a very high likelihood of not being duplicated, exactly what you are looking for to win the big one.
PGA DFS Picks Review
- Top-end pick: It should have been Dustin Johnson, but it wasn’t.
- Value: Tiger Woods was good
- Mid-level pick: Kevin Kisner was good, Cameron Champ was bad.
Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for the BMW ChampionshipÂ
For the full list, click here.
Player Focus This Week
This week features 70 players and no cut.
$10,000 and Above
- Five Golfers with the Webb Simpson withdraw.
- Total ownership of around 75%
Commentary
Simpson’s withdrawal from the tournament certainly shakes up this price section. He was scheduled to get in the mid-teen ownership, and as the week went on, it was trending higher with the emphasis being placed on driving accuracy. Now that ownership will trend towards Rory McIlroy, whose price is the lowest we’ve seen in quite some time. That goes directly to his play, though, as he has yet to show any motivation to win without fans. It’ll also trend lower, but we’ll get into that in a bit. I suspect the withdrawal should push McIlroy to the highest ownership on the board, with Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau coming in around 13%. Jon Rahm projected to be one of the highest owned last week and came in lower than expected. I sense something similar this week, as the ownership projection hovers around 15%.
Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays
It is pretty evenly spread here with no plays under 10% like we had with Johnson last week. Especially now that Simpson is out of the tournament, this is one of those “pick your favorites and ride them” weeks. Justin Thomas doesn’t seem all that bad if he really comes in the least owned out of all of them.
$8,000-$9,999
- 19 Golfers
- Total ownership of 256%
Commentary
Just as many golfers in this price section, as there is in the next one, which rarely happens. It’s also rare that none of the golfers in this price section are projected for less than 8% ownership, with only three golfers coming in below 10%. With Simpson dropping out, I fully suspect a ton of those shares will filter right to Xander Scahuffele, who has been consistent, but not quite “good” since the restart.
Gamers will look to him for some stability at the top of the lineup. Patrick Cantlay will be a very interesting case, as he missed one of his first five cuts since he returned from injury over two years ago and is likely to trend lower as the week progresses. Harris English will stay atop people’s minds as well, and Viktor Hovland is also creeping back in there. Adam Scott’s price hasn’t come up, and he leads a bunch of golfers that I suspect will be between 12-15% this week. Others in that range includeL
- Tiger Woods
- Daniel Berger
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Reed
- Tony FinauÂ
The rest of the bunch here I suspect will come in anywhere between 8% and 12%. Those golfers are:
- Jason Day
- Matthew Wolff
- Kevin Kisner
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Billy Horschel
- Collin MorikawaÂ
Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays
Two of my favorites are coming off of missed cuts. That is something I don’t often say about these two (Cantlay and Morikawa), and it will be interesting to see what their ownership comes in at. If it continues to trend to that 10%, I’ll have more than my fair share. I also like Jason Day for similar reasons.
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$7,000s
- 20 Golfers
- Total ownership of 150 %
Commentary
Will gamers, including myself, be able to kick the Abraham Ancer habit? Or even the Sungaje Im and Gary Woodland ones? All three of them were higher owned last week, and all missed the cut. Obviously, we don’t have to worry about that here, so I expect ownership around 15% for all of them. Also gaining some steam will be Russell Henley, who has been quite a bright spot since the return of professional golf. The last three golfers I think will challenge 10% this week include Matt Fitzpatrick and Matt Kuchar, as well as Ryan Palmer. After them, I don’t suspect any golfer will get over 10%, although quite a few of them are getting between 5-10%. Some of them are:
- Cameron Champ
- Joaquin Niemann
- Alex Noren
- Corey Conners
- Bubba Watson
Some truly against-the-grain plays coming at 5% or less this week include:
- Jason Kokrak
- Adam Hadwin
- Mark Hubbard
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Cameron Smith
- Kevin Na
Top Against-the-Grain PGA DFS Plays
I’ll be taking shots with all of the names on that second bulleted list, maybe a tad higher on Cameron Smith and Mackenzie Hughes.
$6,000s
- 25 golfers
- Total ownership of 115%
Commentary
Kevin Streelman had one lousy start, got booted down the board and now sits at $6,400. He could approach 10% this week, similar to what Cam Davis scored last week. Richy Werenski, Byeong Hun An, Brian Harman, Max Homa and Joel Dahmen should all fetch over 5% this week. For a no-cut event, that comes as no surprise, as the appetite for risk usually is much greater. Still, we should have plenty of options under 5% owned this week, including Harry Higgs, Robby Shelton, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan, Michael Thompson, Andrew Landry, Sebastian Munoz and Jim Herman.
Related PGA DFS Content
- The Awesemo YouTube Channel – Northern Trust Strategy Show
- PGA DFS Rankings for DraftKings + FanDuel
- The Fit & Form Guide: Northern Trust
- PGA Odds: Northern Trust Betting Breakdown
- PGA DFS Projections for SuperDraft from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Ownership Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel (PREMIUM)
- PGA DFS Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel (PREMIUM)
Looking for more PGA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page, just click HERE.
