Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for game theory plays and may not ultimately be in my player pool.
Don’t forget to check out the PGA DFS Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa. Come back tonight at 8:30 p.m. EST for our Live Before Lock show where I drag Ben in for another hour of chatting about all the current week’s hot topics and plays.Â
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Last Week Recap
The Awesemo guys nailed their third straight RSQ of over 90%. I went back to trailing them by about 3%. For the article, I highlighted Branden Grace as a player that was on a resurgence, and that continued as he came in the top 10 and was less than 5% owned. That was the highlight.
PGA DFS Player Focus This Week
156 Players are in Northern California for the three-day cut where the top 65 and ties will make it.
$10,000 and Above
Commentary
A quick glance at the field and one might think Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay are the only two good players in it. While that statement is almost true, Paul Casey’s course history and the lack of field strength will also push him above 20% this week. Both Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker are also gaining traction, likely leading to a stars-and-scrubs approach to lineup building.
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
One of my tidbits from last week on Snedeker was that he might have peaked here early in the season. And while I still believe that holds true, this course is at least much better suited for his game than TPC Scottsdale is. I’m not sure you can get much leverage on any of these guys unless you go 30%. The decision then becomes would you rather have 30% of Snedeker or 50% of Cantlay/Johnson?
$8,000-$9,999
Commentary
A week after the strongest grouping of players we’ve had all year, we get possibly the weakest. Viktor Hovland comes off of a missed cut in Scottsdale, but has great course history here and played well at the U.S. Open on top of that. He still is projected around 20%, as is Rafa Cabrera Bello, who was roughly the same price last year and was the chalk of the week. Cabrera Bello isn’t in great form, however, missing the cut two weeks ago, which was sandwiched by a 56th and a 12th. Matt Kuchar may also trend higher, as his form would suggest he can beat his last three starts at this tournament, which included a missed cut, a 62nd and a 22nd.
Daniel Berger, Adam Hadwin, Kevin Kisner and Russell Knox will all come in between 15-20%, as gamers will use one of them as the third guy in the lineup. Cameron Champ and Jordan Spieth, along with a surging Max Homa, should come in around 10%, while an out-of-form Chez Reavie joins about five others that will be owned under 10% this week. They are:
- Phil Mickelson
- Alex Noren
- Graeme McDowell
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Kurt Kitayama
- Branden Grace
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Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
A lot of the guys on the above list are playing quite well, but are so much more expensive than normal. Kitayama should be the lowest owned and I like him a lot for GPPs.
In addition to him, is it finally time for gamers to trust Cameron Champ? His price is rising but his projected ownership doesn’t seem to be, settling in just shy of 10%. I’ll be going there again this week.
$7,000s
Commentary
Adam Long nabs another big start and gets a price bump plus an ownership bump. Vaughn Taylor, who has been popular most weeks in this price range, comes to a course he’s won on before, and likely will get close to 15% as well. Nate Lashley is also coming off a good start in the desert of Arizona, and he is joined by Cameron Tringale, Lucas Glover and Harry Higgs for golfers that will get around 10%.
There are plenty of golfers still left in this section, and a few that will get around 10% this week:
- Kevin Streelman
- Sung Kang
- Keith Mitchell
- Pat Perez
- Scott Piercy
- Jim Furyk
- Kevin NaÂ
We also should have a number of golfers under 5% this week, and some that I have interest in include:
- Patrick Rodgers
- Scott Stallings
- Cameron Davis
- Matthew NeSmith
- Maverick McNealy
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
For my GPP lineups, I’ll try and get in at least one guy from the above bullet lists, maybe even two from each in my aggressive lineups.
$6,000s
The stars-and-scrubs approach filters down into this section, as we get 13 golfers that could come in around 5% this week. Look for Ted Potter Jr., Brandon Wu and Doc Redman to lead the way.
Until next time
Cheers,
Jason
