Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for game theory plays and may not ultimately be in my player pool.
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PGA DFS Last Week Recap
Last week was the first time in four weeks that the Awesemo guys failed to get to 90%, but they were still within striking distance. I, however, was unable to break 85% for the first time in four weeks. The big misses were Scott Piercy and Max Homa and I was a tad high on Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey.
In terms of the article, Phil Mickelson was the obvious low-owned play, and I highlighted him as such, while the $7,000 section had quite a few gems like Kevin Streelman, Maverick McNealy and Matthew NeSmith.
PGA DFS Player Focus This Week
120 Players are teeing off in the land of the stars, and at least 65 of them will make the weekend.
$10,000 and Above
Commentary
There are not any $12,000 price tags this week for any golfers, which should give Rory McIlroy over 20% ownership. He’s has been owned over 20% in just about half of his starts dating back to The Players Championship last year, a trend that should continue this week. Only Johnson, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau have had higher percentages. Justin Thomas has a little bit more history here and is also a tad cheaper than Jon Rahm, so I suspect Thomas to come in between one and three percentage points higher than him. Tiger Woods is interesting because he has only been owned over 20% once in the last 10 starts, as the majority of gamers don’t want to pay the price tag DraftKings continues to put him at.
I think I’m a tad low on Johnson’s projection, where he should come in around 15%. That said, he was terrible on Sunday. He could not handle the conditions whatsoever. If we see anything like that this week, I will be nervous again.
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
Tiger seems to be the trending against-the-grain play. He is going for win No. 83, on the course where he made his first-ever PGA Tour start. Worse storylines have been written.
$8,000-$9,999
Commentary
I mentioned above how everybody is jumping on the Cantlay bandwagon, but I take pride in being the first to do so. It’s not easy to get leverage now without feeling overexposed. Like last week, he came in at around 25%, so to get double the field, he was in 50% of my lineups. Getting in Day and Mickelson with him would have been very difficult. I bring all this up because you aren’t going to have to worry about that this week. His price has come down over $1,000, and the ownership should remain high.
Xander Schauffele gets a significant price decrease after the missed cut at the Farmers, but I still suspect he, Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Rose will all come in around 20% this week. Then there should be a bit of a drop off to the young stars in Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im, coming in around 15%, with Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott getting between 10 and 15%.
That leaves us with five names. Four of them are coming off of at least a top-10 in their last start, and the fifth is the No. 2 OWGR player in the world. All will be under 10% this week:
- Phil Mickelson
- Jason Day
- Marc LeishmanÂ
- Abraham Ancer
- Brooks Koepka
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Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
I’m definitely a big fan of Ancer’s game. At under 10% at a reasonable price tag, I’ll buy for sure.
$7,000s
Commentary
It seems that the way I spit out ownership projections is leaving Max Homa in the dust. Still shy of 10%, I don’t think we will get that number. I think it will certainly be north of 10%, as his good form continued last week. Joaquin Niemann, in his first start after a couple of week break, will get north of 10% as well, as his price has dropped significantly and he has some good history here. Scheffler is below $8,000 for the first time since joining the tour, and after back-to-back missed cuts, he likely won’t get above 15%. But I also can’t imagine that number will dip below 10% this week. Matt Kuchar and Bryson DeChambeau seem like names that are a bit out of place below $8,000, but here we are, and with that, they should each get around 10%.
There are plenty of golfers still left in this section, and a few that will get around 10% this week include:
- Matthew Wolff
- J.B. HolmesÂ
- Corey Conners
- Ryan Palmer
- Charles Howell III
- Alex Noren
- Sergio GarciaÂ
We also should have a number of golfers under 5% this week, and some that I have interest in include:
- Erik van Rooyen
- Ryan Moore
- Danny WillettÂ
- Paul Casey
- Matthew FitzpatrickÂ
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
Van Rooyen has made the most of his starts on the PGA Tour, and he can absolutely crush the ball. I’ll have him in a couple of lineups, like I did Kurt Kitayama last week, at depressed ownership.
$6,000s
J.T Poston’s price has continued to come down as the fields get stronger, and with that, he will likely get somewhere near 10% this week. Andrew Putnam, a similar type of player, will get that same treatment, as his price has come down quite a bit as well. Fall swing winners Lanto Griffin and Sebastian Munoz should get around 5%, as should Carlos Oritz, Wyndham Clark and Cameron Tringale.Â
Don’t forget to check out the PGA DFS Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa. Come back tonight at 8:30 pm EST for our Live Before Lock show where I drag Ben in for another hour of chatting about all the current week’s hot topics and plays.Â
Until then,
Cheers,
Jason
