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against the grain

PGA DFS: Against the Grain Picks for the Tour Championship 1/2 Millionaire Maker Contest | 9/3

Jason Rouslin

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PGA DFS Picks: Against the Grain for the Tour Championship including Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Cameron Champ & Lanto Griffin | 9/3/20

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers PGA DFS picks for the Tour Championship, starting Sept. 4. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel and DraftKings. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week

PGA DFS picks millionaire maker

Even in a 70-man field, this user was able to make a unique single entry, stay under 65% total ownership and win the thing.

Picks Review

  • Top-end pick: Justin Thomas was OK
  • Value: Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa were OK. Jason Day was bad.
  • Mid-level pick: Mackenzie Hughes and Cameron Smith were both good.

Projected PGA DFS Highest-Owned Golfers for the Tour Championship 

PGA DFS picks

For the full list, click here.

PGA DFS Player Focus This Week

This week features only 30 players with no cut. For the article, I’ll break it into thirds.


Related PGA DFS Content


The Top 10 Priced

  • Total ownership of around 250%

Commentary

The easiness of going from Dustin Johnson to Jon Rahm is bringing double the ownership or maybe even higher in some spots to Rahm. The same can be said, at least similarly, going from Colin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau down to Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger will all be owned around 25%. I also suspect that a lot of lineups will start with Rahm, Schauffele and Billy Horschel. So, if you are going to play Rahm and Schauffele, it might be best to try and separate them in your lineups. By my calculation, it should be the highest-owned stack of the slate.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

Given the information in front of us, I think it would be silly not to have at least one, if not two, of the Johnson, Morikawa, DeChambeau trio in your lineups if the goal is to be as unique as possible.

The Middle 10

  • Total ownership of 256%

PGA DFS Picks

Commentary

It is no surprise to see Tony Finau and Tyrrell Hatton lead the way in terms of ownership, closing in 30% and 25%, respectively. That isn’t terrible for such a small field. Kevin Kisner and Joaquin Niemann come into the Tour Championship with good form and will push north of 20%. Viktor Hovland will also push above 20% given that he’s $100 cheaper than Scottie Scheffler, the next guy on this list. That should leave us with four golfers that should be owned between 10% and 15%. Harris English finally came back to earth a bit last week. Patrick Reed, however, would make an intriguing play at these ownership levels, but I find it hard to believe he’ll actually end up below 15%. At the time of writing this, there’s still well over 24 hours until the first tee so plenty of time to decipher the information. Brendon Todd will also come in closer to 15%.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

The only one I didn’t mention was Sungjae Im, and that’s because the form just isn’t there, and the main culprit is his irons. He’s only gained more than two strokes once since the restart, and that’s covering 11 starts. If somehow he does that this week, then it probably goes without saying, but he’ll need to be a part of your lineup. For me, it’s too much of a gamble, and I’d rather pay $600 more and get Scheffler.

The 10 Lowest Priced

Commentary

Billy Horschel, getting a gift of another week by way of Corey Conners, is now trending towards one of the highest-owned golfers of the slate. Ryan Palmer and Mackenzie Hughes have both shown form as recently as last week, and will also trend towards 20%. I can’t imagine, in a 30-man field at $6,100, Abraham Ancer is going to be less than 20%. Next, Cameron Smith and Lanto Griffin are gaining a bit of steam and will come in between 15% and 20%. That leaves four golfers: Sebastian Munoz, Cameron Champ, Kevin Na and Marc Leishman. 

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

Out of those four, I’d lean Champ, but both Munoz and Na have appeal. I’ll have some of all three along with Smith and Griffin.


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Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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